I have seen a major trend with MMA fans as of late that has me deeply concerned. Have fans really became so fickle that they write a fighter they formerly considered the top LW of all time off after a single arguably two bad showings? I mean come on people its the same problem everyone had after BJ tried to move up in weight to challenge GSP. We all know the story of how that turned out BJ moved back to LW more motivated than ever and ran havoc over the top contenders in the division till everyone threw him on top of a pedestal ready to sacrifice the minute he didn't live up to there monstrous expectations. The greatest WW of all time passes the torch before getting a beat down from a MW masquerading at the top of the WW division and yet still despite winning 3 straight he is done? The truth is BJ is still every bit as good as people thought he was the fact is that Frankie Edgar came in a took advantage of the one thing that has always been BJ's biggest weakness and that is his commitment and work ethic. He worked in and out never standing in one place and not giving BJ time to counter. The fact remains that in my opinion and the opinion of many others following the first bout between BJ and Frankie was that despite Edgar winning the decision, that it was BJ who was in fact the rightful victor in the fight. Now the rematch was pretty clear. Nobody stood up and shouted BJ won that fight and rightfully so but I think BJ thought he could go out fight the exact same fight again and win. Instead Frankie showed up in dominating fashion being as fast as anyone not wearing a red suit adorned with a lightning bolt. One (arguably two) and your done? So we found BJ's weakness its a skilled well rounded fighter who is greased lighting in human form. What is the point? I mean we can tell from Fedor's history of struggling with good grapplers (see Arona, Babalu and Nogueira) and his recent loss to the best BJJ guy in the business that Fedor has his weakness, Anderson Silva has looked less than stellar against great wrestling. Why is it only BJ is being cast a side due to his inherent weaknesses? With a bout with Matt Hughes on the books for later this year the MMA community seems to be clamoring to see the demise of the somewhat polarizing star who many seem to think has coasted through a career an whose best days may be behind him. Others question if his standing was ever deserved. Such questions are really just silly in my opinion. People point to his record as being less impressive due to his losses but no other fighter has consistently tested himself against the best fighters the way BJ did. Moving up face Hughes was a huge move, fighting Renzo at 185, Machida at HW. Most fighters speak of testing themselves but no man has ever lived up to that motto more than BJ Penn. Looking at Penn's opponent we see a fighter who's both current and past history with fans is very much in line with Penn's. A guy who once ran over every opponent put in front of him from Carlos Newton to Royce Gracie and even picking up a win over a young GSP. Matt Hughes defined what wrestling is in terms of MMA. Sure guys like Severn and Coleman came first but none ever utilized it to obtain the level of dominance that Hughes did. We see a guy once considered extremely dominant and almost unbeatable being cast away as a past his prime hack. Again this is far from the truth. Matt Hughes has put his losses to the new WW division king pin GSP and persistent contender Thiago Alves behind him stringing together 3 straight wins since that time. First he knocked off former WW champ Matt Serra, then he took out Renzo Gracie with some leg kicks that almost made it seem like Hughes was trying to get some "hype" of his own. His last bout saw Hughes submit one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC today former MW contender and grappling guru Ricardo Almedia. Hughes unquestionably still has game but the question here is does he have enough to hand Penn his third straight loss in the octagon. Lets take a look at the fight. Striking. There really isn't a whole lot to discuss here, Frankie Roach once said BJ had the best boxing in all of mixed martial arts and despite his recent set backs BJ still leaves fear in the hearts of men who dare to stand with him. The same can not be said of Hughes who despite playing lumberjack in a stand up fight with Renzo Gracie is not a renowned striker and will not have the tools necessary to deal with Penn in the stand up game. Edge Penn but then again Hughes knows this as well. Submissions Despite the fact most people will rave about BJ's guard and World Championship level black belt the grappling aspect of this fight are closer than people give Hughes credit for. Matt is coming off a huge submission win over a decorated grappler and 3rd degree black belt in Ricardo Almedia. Almedia may not have been a world champion but few in MMA are gonna wanna take a roll on the mat with him and even fewer are gonna even attempt to sub him never mind do it. Hughes has fought many a BJJ black belt with out ending the fight by tapping out. In fact the last person to submit Matt Hughes was 170 king pin Georges St. Pierre, before that we need to look back to the first fight between Hughes and Penn to find a case of Matt being submitted I am gonna give Penn the edge here but just barely if somehow he ends up on top of Hughes BJ has a very real chance of submitting him but with Hughes wrestling background it unlikely that will happen and I doubt regardless off how dangerous his guard is that BJ will get much done from there, which leads us to.. Wrestling I know, the hands are all raised and everyone in the class thinks they know the answer to the question here but lets actually stop and examine it. People look at BJ and think of his BJJ and hist striking but has everyone realized that the fights seldom go to the ground till BJ decides he wants it there? It not a coincidence BJ has some of the best TD defense in the game and the fact that Frankie Edgar and GSP took BJ down is irrelevant in this situation based on the ability of both to mix up there strikes and hide there intent to shoot in. Hughes does not possess the tools to set up his take downs in this manner, everyone knows BJ is the better striker and Hughes intent to take BJ down has been clear to everyone short of Ray Charles since the day this fight was announced and we have seen in the past if BJ is expecting the TD its incredibly hard to get. Kenny Florian tried valiantly to try for the TD until BJ seemingly bored of his antics took Ken Flo down and made him tap with what appeared to be relative ease. That said Kenny Florian has shown that he can hardly spell wrestling while Hughes as built an entire legacy around slamming those foolish enough to step in the cage with him. Hughes should have a wrestling advantage here but the problem is I don't believe he has the tools necessary to implement his strength so its effectiveness in this scenario is questionable but we will give him a slight edge here anyway. Athleticism. Typically this isn't something that is strongly examined when looking at a fight but here I think its important to examine. for a multitude of reason from Hughes age and opinions that he is "past his prime" to BJ's often criticized level of commitment. While Hughes should enjoy and relatively large strength advantage that we rarely see outside Brock Lesnar fights, strength is not what athleticism is all about. Just like Hughes should enjoy a good sized strength advantage BJ should have a relative advantage based on his freakish flexibility and dexterity, unfortunately this really only comes into play for Penn if he ends up on his back which is somewhere he doesn't want to be. The only two other facets of athleticism that will come into play here are cardio and size, IMO neither guy is gonna be a blur so speed is not really an issue. Cardio wise its pretty clear that Hughes is pretty consistent and would have an advantage over a normal Penn, we have seen BJ show up in phenomenal shape for some of his past fights and if he shows up like he did against Sanchez he will have an advantage but I doubt to see that happen. One reason I doubt to see Penn show up in shape is that in the past when he moves up to WW we have seen BJ put on size for the sake of putting on size without worrying about it being functional strength instead he shows up looking like some strange Hawian/Budha love child which ends up being detrimental to his cardio without giving him any relative advantage. Athletically Hughes should have a fairl serious athletic advantage at least in the aspects that will be relative here, I mean jumping out of pools is great but BJ is removed from his natural fighting weight of 155 (or arguably even 145 as BJ is a small LW) . When most fighters who struggle with weight move up we see a more explosive fighter who is carrying more muscle mass, with BJ he just looks bloated due the fact that 155 is a relatively comfortable cut for him and his body handles it well. Despite Hughes athletic advantage here I would like to add that Hughes athletic advantage over BJ has been deteriorating consistently since there first fight and Hughes is not as explosive as he once was meaning that in my opinion that gap is closing in here from there past bouts when it wasn't an issue. Except that damn cardio... Conclusion Honestly this fight is a horrible fight for both of these guys for BJ though it may bury him. BJ is taking a huge chance here moving up in weight again to fight a once very dominant fighter who is still very dangerous. Then again that is what they told him the first time the two met. For Hughes the fans are waiting eulogy in hand to see him ride off in the sunset. Despite still being competitive few see him ever becoming a force again in the WW division. For Penn who has dropped 2 of his last 3 many fans question his commitment (or lack there of) and many more question how good he ever was and coming off those two losses and all those questions this is a fight that BJ has to use to make a huge statement that he is not ready to ride off into the sunset or go quietly into the night. He definitely didn't pick an easy guy to make that statement against. In my opinion if you put a gun to me head I am gonna go with BJ, I think if BJ is truly motivated and shows up in that kind of shape he can put a pretty epic display of MMA dominance on but even if he shows up out of shape he has done it twice against Hughes in the past and it was enough once and was almost enough in the second bout. With Hughes losing a bit of explosiveness it may be enough for BJ to sneak out the win. Either way two the very best to ever step into the cage will put a fitting end to one of the greatest trilogies in MMA history.
