Oh, I hear ya. I was just relating to a seemingly ongoing perception................a certain, dare I say, bias emanating from the southeast, and the conference thereof. Trust me, I saw it in person the 12 years I lived in Atlanta.
No they don't. We'll have played every bit as tough a conference schedule. That leads me to the non conference schedule and Oregon traveled to TN (an SEC team) and kicked the living crap out of them. So let's see who Auburn played non conference- Arkansas State at home, Louisiana-Monroe at home and Chattanooga at home. Nope, UO will have a better strength of schedule even with PSU.
I think the handwriting is on the wall - or computer screen. Even if the Ducks run the table, the BCS isn't letting them have a whiff of the championship bowl. Think I'm kidding? http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/story?columnist=schlabach_mark&id=5724137
I've always liked the Sagarin's. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt10.htm BTW, Blazers are 10th in the NBA... http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba1011.htm
Won't happen if the Ducks win out because, 1) they only have to get into the top 2 in order to make the championship, and when you're #1 in 2/3rds of the power of the BCS in the human polls, you're pretty much a lock to be in the top 2 by the end of the season when the computers and their statistical anamolies early in the season starts to balance itself out. And, 2) The Ducks actually only deserve to be 3-4 because they've been double-digit favorites for all but one of their games so far due to a BSU-like schedule thus far. So they should be undefeated right now. The fact of the matter is that 3 of their 4 toughest games are coming up in the next 4 weeks, so up until now Cal was the only game that was a single digit point spread. Now their schedule is harder than Auburn and Michigan State from here on out, so they'll either pass those teams on the computers or move up from 8th to 2nd or 3rd and pretty much blow everyone else out since they're leading the human polls. So the BCS is a problem for Missouri, Michigan State, TCU and BSU since those guys don't have schedules that will allow them to catch the Ducks or Auburn.
It's very possible--check the math. Let's just suppose, for a moment, that Oregon, Auburn, Missouri, Michigan State and TCU all make it through their seasons undefeated (very possible). Then let's also suppose that Oregon is a unanimous #1 in the coaches and Harris polls at season's end, and Auburn and Missouri split the #2 & #3 votes. In this situation, there would be solid possibility that Oregon could average fifth or lower in the computer rankings--especially if Ohio State also wins out. So, theoretically, we could have something like: Team...Coaches...Harris...Comp...Average Auburn---.950---.950---.970---.957 Mizzou---.930---.930---.990---.950 Oregon---1.00---1.00---.840---.947 Nothing here--short of Oregon being a unanimous #1--is unreasonable. In fact, Auburn & Missouri will probably take some of Oregon's #1 votes if they continue undefeated, further strengthening the possibility of Oregon being #1 in the polls and #3 in the BCS rankings. Oh well--Ducks-Spartans will be a pretty good Rose Bowl.
Oops. My bad, their sister school Stanford was who I was thinking of there. Obviously the only decent school UO has played thus far so it was pretty easy to figure out.
The only problem I'd have with that is you're assuming Auburn and Mizzou could have a .970 and .990 in the computers, which means Mizzou is ranked #1 in every poll but 2 and are #2 in those and Auburn is #1 in those 2 and then #2 in the other 4. It's like coming up with a scenario where we get CP3 and Melo in a 5 team deal where somehow the salaries and team needs all line up. While I can see those two teams up near the top as one scenario, you're also now saying Oregon is only going to move up to .840, which means they're like 5th in the computer rankings. They're 8th because they've had Portland State, New Mexico and WSU as half of their season to go on and only one decent team in Stanford. Auburn played 3 top-15 schools so far and have their cakewalk games coming up (like Chattanooga). Mizzou only plays one more ranked team in Nebraska and then maybe someone decent in their Big-12 championship game. But neither their schedules or the other teams that are in those 3rd-7th computer polls have schedules like Oregon. So Oregon should move way up from here and start biting into many of those computers. Therefore they really do control their own destiny, but there are stranger things that could happen (like people putting Auburn #1 over Oregon in the human polls just because).
oregon has a tougher nonconference schedule. auburn has a far tougher complete schedule. auburn has beaten 4 teams that are currently ranked. oregon has beaten one. then auburn still has a road game against alabama and the sec title game while oregon has usc and arizona. i just don't see how oregon even has an argument if we're comparing what they've done thus far. if auburn wins out, there's nothing oregon could do to be more impressive. and like i said, no one has a shot at catching oregon for #2, so it really doesn't even matter.
