(OT) Grizzlies give Conley a 5 year, $40-45 mil extension

Conley has set the bar. If Oden's lil' buddy gets $8-9 million per year, what will Oden (and his big buddy) want, if he stays healthy?

How does lots of mediocre play compare with not much very good play? Which is worth more?

 

PA as the owner is not going to change what people are willing to offer Greg. What happens if you wildly overpay for him and the Blazers do not match? You get stuck with him...

So - it's not contract chicken, it's going to be like every RFA agent out there - people will offer him what they think he is worth and hope Portland will not match. If he is a $60m guy and someone is willing to overpay (say the max) - the Blazers will match. The Blazers are usually willing to overpay thanks to Paul.

So, it looks to me like this was the right move for the Blazers, if Oden proves he is healthy - you overpay for his potential. If he is not, the Blazers might have saved themselves from themselves and being tied for big money to him. Win-win.

This was the right move for the Blazers.

 

How can it be win win if he stays healthy you pay max money for him, but if he is injured, that's a good thing (????) since you don't pay "AS MUCH" (he will still get paid though a team will offer a contract to him).

 

We will know if Greg is worth the money by end of season. No reason to freak out over this. The facts are the Blazers can match if they want to, so they are in control of their own destiny. How much they will have to pay to control that destiny, is another matter. One that Paul Allen, really doesn't give a shit about if the player is the guy the Blazers want.

 

If he is healthy - the Blazers overpay him like every other team would for his potential. If he is injured, they are not in a hole and on the record for a huge contract.

This was the right move for the Blazers.

 

I don't see how the Blazers could NOT match on Oden. They're pretty much hamstrung right now, because if they let him walk away and get nothing in return, they lose out on the only chip they still hold in the "we passed on Durant" card game. Oden still has a lot of potential, and has shown flashes of greatness. If the Blazers were to let him go and not re-sign him, it would mean that they could have had Durant and got nothing instead. Not even the promise of Greg Oden. There's no way they don't re-sign him, and if some team decides to fuck with them and offer him max money, they will really be screwed. They either look bad because they gave an unproven commodity a big contract, or they look bad because they let their #1 overall pick walk away for nothing. It's lose/lose.

 

Other teams should not determine Oden's contract and value, the Blazers should.
If he did get injured, I still think the Blazers have to keep him. And other teams wouldn't mind taking a risk and offering a largeish contract regardless of injury history because of his potential, size and age.

Barring a career threatening injury (knock on wood), I think he still gets minimum $10 million offers next summer from Memphis or OKC even if he does get injured again.

 

The problem is that the Blazers can't determine Oden's contract and value given the data they have - so they can overpay him now or offend him now - or make a more informed decision later based on market conditions. That, I believe, is what they are doing.

 

If Greg Oden has another major injury I would let him walk and not think twice about it.

 

Informed decision making isn't having any negotiating leverage whatsoever.

 

Meh. Sink or swim with G.O. or blow the team up.

 

Also take into account that not many teams will have alot of cap space next offseason. I believe only Minnesota and Indiana will have a significant amount. Neither are going to win a money fight with PA.

 

from another forum, prelim look at situations.


http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/cap-space-2011

 

Cleveland, OKC, and Memphis will all have enough to offer Oden a max contract, based on the current state of their rosters.

 

Also Denver potentially, Milwaukee, Houston, NJ, N.O. could get creative and get there, NY, Sacramento, Toronto could come close. And a few teams who are a shedded salary or so away from it, like Phoenix, for one. So from only one or two, to almost half the league.

 

Because if Greg Oden actually does stay healthy and produce he is a max level contract player and you are now paying him what he's worth

 

I expect the Blazers to match any offer for Oden, even a max offer. They would be irritated by a max deal but at the end of the day having another Jermaine Oneal situation is a much more costly mistake for Paul Allen and the Blazers than having a Raef LaFrentz situation.

I’d expect every other team in the league to assume as much too. So then you’re talking about a team sacrificing 7 days of cap room to force the Blazers to pay a few extra million. Remember when we had cap room 16 months ago? We lost out on Hedo, then we we’re matched on Millsap. Meanwhile all the good free agents are signing left and right. David Lee was the next best talent on the board and held in very high regard by Blazer management. But we knew the Knicks would match any offer we made. So the team decided to not even bother with an offer and went out to get the best attainable free agent still unsigned; that was Andre Miller. Initially, the Blazers believed there was a chance Utah wouldn’t match the Millsap offer, which is why they made it. But they knew the Knicks would match Lee, so they never bothered.

I do not expect another team to make an offer to Oden. They are going to run after other free agents first. Only if they strike out on all other talents and have no use for cap space for 7 days will they consider it.

 

Or perhaps change the teams game plan to accomodate not having a dominate interior rebounder?

I'm just sayin'.

 

Still, I am not worried. We always have the ability to match any offer. I think both Greg and the team took the right approach.

 

It doesn't matter if he does produce. As long as he stays relatively healthy, I still think teams will offer max money for him.