(OT) Grizzlies give Conley a 5 year, $40-45 mil extension

You keep harping on that like it is important. What is important is we control our own destiny. The money matters are taken care of by Paul Allen. If he wants Greg to stay, Gregs staying. What is important is that the Blazers control their and Greg's future. It may cost them money, but it is important they are in charge of how it turns out.

 

No. It matters whether he produces. Kwame Brown didn't get a lot of max contract offers despite having plenty of healthy seasons.

Of course, I think Oden will produce if healthy. But he does need to, absolutely.

 

See fix for my take on it.

Very good point.

 

Re: Re: (OT) Grizzlies give Conley a 5 year, $40-45 mil extension

We control nothing except being able to match the highest offer given.

 

Re: Re: (OT) Grizzlies give Conley a 5 year, $40-45 mil extension

No. We know Oden is good. Everyone else does as well. Just injuries. If he stays healthy but low stats he will still get max offers.

 

What happens if the highest offer he gets is $20m/5 - than the Blazers got a fantastic player for chump change...

The worst thing that could happen is that Greg does not accept any offer other than the qualifying and becomes a free agent - but with his injury history - he would be crazy to do that.

So, the worst realistic thing that could happen is that Paul Allen overpays a little bit for Greg. Big effing whoop.

 

Re: Re: (OT) Grizzlies give Conley a 5 year, $40-45 mil extension

No. Worse case is blazers don't match a max contract and the thunder sign him.

 

If he returns, plays the rest of the season but does very little, most teams will be highly concerned that injuries have changed his ability level.

I've been one of Oden's staunchest supporters, but if he plays poorly, I'll have that concern too. He needs to stay healthy and be productive.

 

That's only a worst case scenario if he is playing well. If he is not - it could be a best case scenario where the Thunder are under money constraints and never improve that roster ruining Durant's prime years.

You are concerned that the Blazers make a stupid decision on Oden one way (undervaluing him), but you are not concerned that they make a stupid decision the other way (overvaluing him). Logically, this does not make sense. They either make a good decision or they do not - and extending him for too much money now is just as likely to be a mistake as failing to match next year, the only difference is that next year they will have another full year to evaluate the decision. So, in the end, it comes down to making a big-money decision now or making a big-money decision next year with more data.

Seems to me that the Blazers are doing the right thing.

 

You gloss over that like the Captain of the Titanic saying, "It's just an iceberg." The injuries are a major consideration in valuing Greg and could make decision makers very leery especially in a risk averse league like the NBA where every move a GM makes has the potential to cost him his job if he fucks up. Giving a guy like Greg a max contract with his injury history and the fact that he'll be on the insurer's exception list is longshot IMO.

The only reason I think the Blazers will end up committing to him is that I think they're pretty much locked in a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation -- they've got a lot of time, money and emotion invested in this guy working out.

 

And if there's a hardcap installed in the next CBA and the extra 2-3million on our cap prevents us from offering a competatively priced contract to another guy that we need?

I could care less whether Paul Allen wipes his ass with hundred dollar bills or costco napkins, but I think the possibility of the teams ability to keep/acquire other players being hindered by a 'toxic' offer is definitely within my area of interest as a fan. Not quite the same situation but look at the Jazz the last few years, matching on Millsap has cost them Ronnie Brewer, Wes Matthews, Eric Maynor, and probably Kyle Korver, all of which could be contributing to their team.

 

The Blazers will know about the next CBA next year - so once again, they will be in a position to make an informed decision. The scenario you describe is even more of an issue of they extend him this year and he has a career ending injury this year, what happens then to Nic's extension?

You have actually made a very good argument why they should not do it this year!

 

the only stupid decision IMO is not keeping Oden here no mattter the consequences. Too much invested, this team is not winning a championship without him, so why chance it.

 

The only way signing him to an extension now and him suffering a career ending injury this year would be a problem is if they got rid of the clause that allowed us to try and take Darius Miles off our cap, and if we match an offer next offseason and he has a career ending injury next season after they've taken the clause out we'd actually be in even worse shape. In any scenario of a hardcap or a more restrictive lux tax system being put into place existing contracts have to be grandfathered in, any existing contracts would have to be valued lower than their actual dollar amount or allowed under the cap as an exception to expire upon the contracts expiration or most teams would be over that line and be unable to sign/resign their players. By signing Oden to something like a 4yr/40mil extension, that extension would have to be treated as less than 10mil/yr in any viable scenario in which the league restricts it's teams spending, making the cost of the team being forced to carry the contract of a career over Oden less if they were to extend him now.

So it's actually quite the opposite of an argument not to extend him.

EDIT: and the extension being under the current CBA could still be subject to the career ending injury clause, even if it doesn't survive negotiations, like some players getting to keep their no trade clause's from the old CBA when the last one was put into place. Although with such a clamor for reduced spend/payroll and non guaranteed contracts I can't see either side being to keen on taking that clause out.

 

When the Blazers traded Sam Bowie for Buck Williams was that a good idea or not? Of course it was.

I loved the Oden pick, I still think he has tons of potential to be the difference maker between championship run or not - and I wish he will be that guy for the Blazers - but there is no such thing as "no matter the consequences" in logical management. At some points, it is only right to consider sunk costs as sunk costs. I hope we never get there with Oden - but if we do, I would rather not have the Blazer compound a mistake by turning a "this was a bad coat for the winter" situation into a "they lost a hand because of frostbites when they took this coat to the north pole" situation...

 

For me, as a fan, its all or nothing with G.O. I've got too much emotionally invested here.

 

Who says Oden's camp would accept that?

I am willing to bet that the Blazers have a pretty good idea (or at least better than most of us) of what the next CBA parameters are when they made their decision.

The fact of that matter is, however, that there are risk/rewards in any decision to do (or not do) something. There are hypothetical scenarios where the Blazers would lose from this decision, there are scenarios where they would benefit. Given what we know about the current CBA, what we know about Oden's injury history - to me, this seemed like a reasonable decision.

Other than that, I guess that we get repetitive here. They made their decision and there is nothing that will change it at this point. All we have to do is wait and see how it turns out.

 

Yes. The decisions are all out of the blazers hands. Other teams will now dictate how much he is worth. Nothing Portland can do about it.

 

That is pretty much my point of view, until we see what the new CBA looks like this move can't really be evaluated. It could be a good move, a bad move, or a forgotten meh in the franchises collective history. I was just pointing out a possible 'bad move' scenario I thought was being lost.

 

The decision was never all in the Blazers hands. It was the Blazers and Oden's camp. If the Blazers offered something Oden's camp did not like - it was not in their hands already...

The Blazers still have the decision to make Oden a member of the team long term, or not, the only difference is that they might overpay now if they decide to keep him.