Our record kind of stinks, but overall I think the 'vital signs' we would want to look for are basically there. Mainly: 1). All our core guys seem to be at least slightly better than last year. Taj Gibson has taken his 'unnoticeably good' style of play up a considerable level. His PER is 20. (Through 5 games, I know). 2). The team seems to be buying into our new team concept, even if the execution is not there. 3). I think Thibs is considerably more put together than Vinnie. We have a big gaping hole at SG, but if we can come up with a patchwork solution that is merely 'good enough', I think the rest of our team will be good enough to make it work. With the circus trip around the corner, I think we will be better than our record indicates for the first half of the season. I still think 50 wins and the 2nd round of the playoffs is a good, measurable goal for this team.
I find it really hard to make any hard conclusions at this point because so much is in flux. --Joakim Noah and Rose have really stepped up their games and I think both have played like all-stars up to this point. If Ed Pickney has anything to do with Joakim Noah's new goto lefty hook and layup moves that may have been the move of the off-season. I've heard announcers drill the Bulls because they still don't have an inside presence with Boozer out. I'm not sure that's right. I mean, the Bulls could still use the talent upgrade that Boozer provides, but I think we are weakest at shooting guard. --The Eastern Conference is going to be fun to follow this year. The Celtics have improved, Orlando is better, and the Heat, like the Bulls, will be a force with a little more time to gel. --Ronnie Brewer still isn't healthy yet. --Asik and James Johnson have flashed signs of being real contributors mixed in with a lot of mistakes, which I suppose is to be expected. --The jury is still out on Thibodeau, for me. The Bulls aren't really running a complete offense yet, relying a lot on pick and rolls while they improve execution of their full sets. And there defense is still a work in major work in progress. I also wonder whether his demeanor is sustainable, though one would hope that he mellows with time as his team gets more comfortable with his sets. --Luol Deng is better but has continued to struggle without a fully implemented offense. --I think it may be a rough showing over the circus trip, but I also don't think that means much in the grand scheme of things.
This is an important stretch. On the one hand, too bad Boozer is out. Makes it rougher. On the other hand, I like that it is helping Noah and Rose to assert leadership over the team, and is forcing the team to address issues that it might have been able to ignore if Boozer was around to grease the skids. I was definitely too optimistic about this team with regards to figuring it all out quickly, but I remain optimistic over the long haul.
Right now we we have 4 good players. With Boozer back we have 5, but only 4 in the starting lineup and a really good 6th man in Taj. Ideally, guys 7, 8, and 9 are close to ability to Taj and can cover all the positions. Without Boozer, it's hard to judge what the team really can do. He's the only guy on the team who can demand a double team to take some of the pressure off Rose. Boozer has to be a second guy we can get the ball in his hands and score. We don't really have a second ball handler. Rose really shouldn't have to dribble the ball up court every play. I like Thibs fine. SG is a gaping wound.
I think we're doing about as well as can be expected given our talent and experience. * Thibs is a talented but inexperienced coach. He's got guys playing better than in the past, which I think is huge, but he's made some obvious "new coach" mistakes that I think he'll grow out of, rather than simply let them slide into "bad coach" mistakes. * Asik and JJ show flashes of talent but are pretty behind in terms of feel for the NBA game. * Rose and Noah have definitely stepped up. * Deng... better, and will be better playing with Boozer. We can win with him, but he won't often win for us. Still, his solid three point shooting and an offense that suits him are making him much more of an asset for us. * Taj is sort of turning into a PF version of Deng. I think he's fairly solid all around, but I don't really expect him to play well enough to overcome our... * Sucking chest wound at SG. Yuck. This summer, I sort of came to the conclusion that we ought to hold off on much in the way of spending and hope something developed later we could use our cap room on. We're still under the cap by about $1.5M I think, so the $13M or so we're paying Brewer, Korver and Watson would, when added with that salary, give us a lot of flexibility in terms of making trades with other teams. I know that was unpopular at the time and would be unpopular now, but the reality is we're not getting much of anything out of that $13M we spent on those guys. On the other hand, if we had that amount as cap room, we could make a lop-sided trade where we take back an actually good player (Iggy, Melo, etc.) help a team out salary-wise, and only give up future picks. In the NBA, I think things are so skewed in favor of the relatively few difference-making players, that we're better off keeping our options open for as long as possible to get one of those guys, rather than spending an equivalent amount on a set of forgettable guys.
I am not so worried about the shooting guard position as much as what I am worried about the 2nd unit and the leadership thereof. I hold CJ Watson mainly responsible for giving up some of these 2nd quarter blow outs. His decision making and his tenative exection has been god awful that has thrown the entire 2nd unit out of sync. The guy we need is a guy like Chris Duhon Taj ? Meh. Still fouls way too much and is merely an adequate rebounder...but that's what you get for average role players which is what he is. If he continues in this vain someone might over value him enough to get a shooting guard ...and I'd be hoping for OJ Mayo The Grizz are invested in Gay, Conley and Gasol. Being a small market team they already have the shooting guards in place with Henry and Allen and Sam Young backs up both wing spots as well. It makes no sense paying Mayo the money he will seek ( and probably be entitled to ) Randolph will go and Gibson and Arthur would be a working solution for them at the power forward as they continue to build through the draft . Anyway.....we can perve at Taj's per and get all moist ....but the reality is he is not good enough to be an X Factor game winner. Asik and Johnson are . And part of our answer is that we must sacrifice now to get Asik and Johnson playing more so we can more down the stretch and into the playoffs. Boozer Insurance be damned. Those minutes can be busted up between Asik and Johnson joining a bench of Korver and Brewer.....and ideally a Chris Duhon type of vet point Taj and CJ and our draft pick or possibly the Charlotte draft pick would be my bait for OJ Mayo
And this is why I'm not so enamored with PER. Taj has been good, but not great for us. His rebounds come at inopportune moments of the game and he's become somewhat of a liability on D. I'm starting to like the idea of Asik > Taj more and more everyday.
Mayo would be a huge addition to our team, and I agree with the idea of trading Taj for him. But I think we're going to be weak up front with a rotation of just Noah, Boozer, and Asik. The Bulls are hardheaded to not want to play a "smurf" back court again, but maybe it's worth giving Watson a shot as the starter alongside Rose, just to see if it can work.
And Taj is easily replaceable I have full confidence in being able to plug his gap this season between Omer and JJ then KT and Scalabrine In the offseason - there will always be a guy floating around like Darrell Arthur , or , a Jeff Pendergraph type depending on what type of thing you are looking for . But Omer has game changing qualities on the defensive end much like Tyson Chandler had with us and latterly of New Orleans before injury set in etc JJ too. Between them they might cost you a few games by playing them more than spot minutes in the rotation ...but by All Star break heading down the stretch ... I believe both of them have game changer quality as X Factors in the 2nd unit...same with a specialist like Korver. Not so much Brewer who if fit is an honest tolier - nor a vet point who needs to hold this 2nd unit together But if Taj + gets you a Mayo , or in a downgrade a Thornton ...give me a bloody pen
Jason Smith BTW may be the most athletic 7 footer in the league. His speed running the floor , his hops on the finish and in crashing the boards is insane. I remember when he was drafted his court sprint , lane agility and vertical tests...had him as the most or 2nd most athletic big from his class Steady jump shooting big too that opens up the post inside for Boozer or Noah and a reliable scorer in the 2nd unit to go with Omer ....but probably more under the radar than Taj ( except for the Hornets though ) Taj is still probably a better defender and versatile scorer ...but Jason Smith IMO would be a very good fit for us He's this year's Serge Ibaka IMO
In fact we could give the Hornets , Taj and a 1st round pick for Smith , Thornton and Mjenga Bunga ( or whatever his name is ) and save the Hornets a luxury tax bill by having them bang on $70M , and where , Smith and Thornton are RFA's next year and will command another $10M between them ( and likely putting pressure on another luxury tax bill ) - whereas , Taj and a draft pick will only cost them $2.5M
And , the Bulls could pay Smith and Thornton $9M cumulatively ...and we'd be 12 players for $70M Probably a vet back up point and a vet big from being complete in rounding out the roster ..... but after Bogans and Watson tail off the year after next that frees up around $5M ....but which will all be going to Derrick Rose's max that will be around $13M starting I mean if we want to compete we eventually have to pay Taj and a shooting guard anyway...on the assumptuon we're dealing Derrick, Jo and Booze and couldn't / wouldn't unload Deng
If Deng can establish his production and market value properly in the next couple of season at say 17 and 6 and become a reliable 38% 3 point shooter .... and if James Johnson comes on in the next 2 season ... I could well see a scenario where Deng is dealt in the summer of 2012 for cap space If we don't - Bulls are looking down the barrell of an $80M payroll and likely $10M or say in penalties ? In 2 years time - are we a Eastern Conference contender that would make the Chairman pay the tax to keep Luol ? With what I see at the moment it would only really be the Heat and the Magic as our principal competiton
Noah Boozer Deng Thornton Rose bench Asik Smith Johnson Korver / Brewer Vet Point Having 2 extremely athletic 7 footers - one defensive and one offensive in your 2nd unit , an athletic 2 way X factor like JJ , then a specialist long ball shooter like Korver ... one of the best in the league , a role playing defender like Brewer and a vet point..... that is one helluva 2nd unit backing up Noah. Boozer, Deng , ( maybe the best rebounding front court in the league ) Thornton and Rose And yeah ... I think that team could contend Thornton ain't OJ.... but he's a poor cousin which may suffice when you have depth in Brewer and Korver
What have you seen from Watson that even remotely suggests that Watson should see any uptick in playing time? He's awful. Maybe he turns that around, but as of now, he's awful. If anything, I'd like to see Korver get more burn with Rose. Korver helps space the floor, which will make it easier for Rose to drive and score... or drive, draw, and dish.
I'd prefer Korver, too, but they need some scoring on the bench. Kover > Watson > Hinrich >>> Bogans That's my thinking.
About the only two things Watson has that is preferable to Hinrich is the size of the contract and age. And yes, you need scoring on the bench. Korver can continue to come off the bench. But he needs more minutes with Rose on the court, not Watson. Watson isn't going to drive and collapse a defense, leaving Korver open on the perimeter. But Rose can.
