Is it just me, or has Andre been more important to the Blazers this year than Roy? It wouldn't be surprising, of course, because Miller is the PG, who is in charge of distributing the ball, and with a reasonably ball-dominant PG, as he goes, so goes the team (extreme cases: Chris Paul and Steve Nash). Now, teams with players like Paul are more fun to watch (better on the fast break, lots of alley-oops) than teams where the star is more of a scorer than a passer, or teams where the assists are spread out more amongst the players (like teams that play the triangle), but that doesn't mean they're more successful (see Chris Paul's and Steve Nash's absence of rings). And it's not clear that a team with Dre as the MVP will be more successful than the Blazers team of 2 years ago with Roy at his peak. (Yes, that team lost to the Rockets. But the Rockets were damn good - taking the Lakers to seven without Yao - and remember, Miller hasn't ever made the second round either.) It seems to me that there are two camps: 1. Roy needs to adapt. Stop being so selfish. Grow up and work with Miller. 2. Miller needs to go so we can get Old Roy back. (okay, 3 camps: 3. Roy's already over the hill.) I used to be in the first camp. And I can recognize that Miller is really good - perhaps Roy good, and certainly criminally underrated. He's just a baller, and when he's on, he's pretty much unstoppable. Also, he really IS a PG (although, I would say, more of a scoring PG than people tend to think) which Brandon just isn't. And I LIKE good PGs. But... I just think, we need Roy to be a superstar if we're going to compete. And Roy can't be a superstar as an off-the-ball SG / backup PG. MAYBE he'll make it work. MAYBE he's just starting the season slow. But people always thought Bayless would learn to be a PG and I never believed that. So... I'm sort of moving in to that second camp. It doesn't help that Miller can't shoot, so the best way to use him on offense, so that people can't help off him, is to post him up, but that way turns everybody else into spot-up shooters. So, I'm still hoping for the Bigger Better Blake. I'm sort of coming round to the idea of Mo Williams. I used to hate it, because he's a BAD defender and because he's more of a gunner. But I think he proved his worth playing off LeBron, and maybe he can play off Brandon. Trouble is, the Cavs are currently in "trying to prove they don't need LeBron" mode, leading the league in attendance (!) and pretending not to rebuild. So they might not be ready to give him up. Maybe the Wiz will decide they can't move Arenas unless they play him A LITTLE, so they move Hinrich to give him time? Bleh. It's like repeating the arguments of the past two years. But I really DON'T think Miller and Roy is working, and worse, I think McMillan is trying to keep Roy happy by letting him be PG of the second unit, with the idea that at least THEN he gets the ball in his hands, but the trouble is, Roy isn't a PG, and just like with Bayless, you see him struggle trying to run the team instead of playing to his strengths. Plus, he's playing too many minutes, and we're seeing less of Armon than we should.
Also: Code: Players Player 1 Team + - +/- Min +/- /Min G A. Miller Trail Blazers 325 -287 38 156:03 .243 5 L. Aldridge Trail Blazers 402 -368 34 194:18 .174 5 B. Roy Trail Blazers 406 -374 32 196:11 .163 5 N. Batum Trail Blazers 249 -219 30 118:28 .253 5 W. Matthews Trail Blazers 248 -231 17 118:37 .143 5 M. Camby Trail Blazers 284 -269 15 137:29 .109 5 A. Johnson Trail Blazers 103 -92 11 50:51 .216 5 R. Fernandez Trail Blazers 174 -172 2 91:38 .021 5 L. Babbitt Trail Blazers 8 -9 -1 4:24 -.227 1 D. Cunningham Trail Blazers 164 -167 -3 87:17 -.034 5 F. Oberto Trail Blazers 82 -102 -20 44:41 -.447 5 Yeah yeah, small sample size blah blah blah. But small sample size or not, this means that the Blazers have outscored the other team by more when Miller is on the floor so far this year than when Brandon has. (It also means we need more Batum on the floor, because he leads in per minute +/-.) Of course, somewhat hurting my point is this: Code: Top Two-Player Combinations Player 1 Player 2 Team + - +/- Min +/- /Min G A. Miller Brandon Roy Trail Blazers 311 -266 45 144:41 .310 A. Miller N. Batum Trail Blazers 235 -196 39 108:57 .357 L. Aldridge Brandon Roy Trail Blazers 352 -319 33 167:57 .196 A. Miller L. Aldridge Trail Blazers 301 -269 32 146:00 .219 Brandon Roy N. Batum Trail Blazers 247 -217 30 115:51 .258 L. Aldridge N. Batum Trail Blazers 240 -211 29 114:34 .253 N. Batum W. Matthews Trail Blazers 48 -24 24 19:18 1.242 A. Miller W. Matthews Trail Blazers 104 -82 22 45:56 .478 L. Aldridge W. Matthews Trail Blazers 177 -156 21 81:52 .256 Brandon Roy W. Matthews Trail Blazers 175 -158 17 81:15 .209 M. Camby Brandon Roy Trail Blazers 258 -243 15 122:45 .122 W. Matthews A. Johnson Trail Blazers 85 -73 12 38:57 .308 R. Fernandez A. Johnson Trail Blazers 83 -71 12 40:05 .299 M. Camby A. Miller Trail Blazers 249 -238 11 120:58 .090 M. Camby N. Batum Trail Blazers 190 -179 11 93:29 .117 D. Cunningham A. Johnson Trail Blazers 85 -75 10 42:05 .237 L. Aldridge A. Johnson Trail Blazers 62 -54 8 29:58 .266 M. Camby D. Cunningham Trail Blazers 32 -24 8 14:10 .564 L. Aldridge D. Cunningham Trail Blazers 88 -82 6 45:14 .132 A. Miller R. Fernandez Trail Blazers 42 -36 6 23:40 .253 M. Camby L. Aldridge Trail Blazers 246 -240 6 119:55 .050 M. Camby W. Matthews Trail Blazers 89 -83 6 40:33 .147 Brandon Roy A. Johnson Trail Blazers 34 -29 5 18:24 .271 A. Miller D. Cunningham Trail Blazers 40 -36 4 23:09 .172 L. Aldridge R. Fernandez Trail Blazers 106 -103 3 55:18 .054 That is, Roy and Miller playing together have the highest +/- of any two. BUT, that's partly because they play together so much. If you sort the above list by +/- per minute, it looks like this: Code: Top Two-Player Combinations Player 1 Player 2 Team + - +/- Min +/- /Min G N. Batum W. Matthews Trail Blazers 48 -24 24 19:18 1.242 M. Camby D. Cunningham Trail Blazers 32 -24 8 14:10 .564 A. Miller W. Matthews Trail Blazers 104 -82 22 45:56 .478 A. Miller N. Batum Trail Blazers 235 -196 39 108:57 .357 A. Miller Brandon Roy Trail Blazers 311 -266 45 144:41 .310 W. Matthews A. Johnson Trail Blazers 85 -73 12 38:57 .308 R. Fernandez A. Johnson Trail Blazers 83 -71 12 40:05 .299 Brandon Roy A. Johnson Trail Blazers 34 -29 5 18:24 .271 L. Aldridge A. Johnson Trail Blazers 62 -54 8 29:58 .266 Brandon Roy N. Batum Trail Blazers 247 -217 30 115:51 .258 L. Aldridge W. Matthews Trail Blazers 177 -156 21 81:52 .256 L. Aldridge N. Batum Trail Blazers 240 -211 29 114:34 .253 A. Miller R. Fernandez Trail Blazers 42 -36 6 23:40 .253 D. Cunningham A. Johnson Trail Blazers 85 -75 10 42:05 .237 A. Miller L. Aldridge Trail Blazers 301 -269 32 146:00 .219 Brandon Roy W. Matthews Trail Blazers 175 -158 17 81:15 .209 L. Aldridge Brandon Roy Trail Blazers 352 -319 33 167:57 .196 A. Miller D. Cunningham Trail Blazers 40 -36 4 23:09 .172 M. Camby W. Matthews Trail Blazers 89 -83 6 40:33 .147 L. Aldridge D. Cunningham Trail Blazers 88 -82 6 45:14 .132 M. Camby Brandon Roy Trail Blazers 258 -243 15 122:45 .122 M. Camby N. Batum Trail Blazers 190 -179 11 93:29 .117 M. Camby A. Miller Trail Blazers 249 -238 11 120:58 .090 L. Aldridge R. Fernandez Trail Blazers 106 -103 3 55:18 .054 M. Camby L. Aldridge Trail Blazers 246 -240 6 119:55 .050 Interesting that Roy only shows up three times in the top 15 while Miller shows up three times in the top 5 (and alongside Brandon in his highest slot).
Considering the season is almost over, this is a great time to analyze an entire body of work and make a solid point.
I think it's been fairly clear that Miller has been more instrumental so fat to the team's success, but in the long run, they need a dominant Roy more than they need a dominant Miller. I'm just hoping Brandon stops settling for the off-balance 20 footers and either starts shooting after curling off of pin downs and screens OR starts taking it strong to the hole. If he's going to shoot 40% for the season we're probably fooked.
Roy's second season was the one in which he commanded the ball the most. You can see it in his numbers. He averaged almost 6 assists per game. But we only won half our games. The following year, we won 54 games because we got a career year out of Blake. And yes, a Bigger Blake could get us back to playing that way again. And I agree that Mo Williams would fit in great. He was the second option on a team that won 141 games in the last two seasons. On our team, he would only need to be the 4th option. We could be dominant. I would not cry over such a trade. THAT SAID, we are getting a GREAT season so far out of Miller. He's averaging 12 pts & 9 assts even though he has to share some of the playmaking duties with Roy. Miller hasn't averaged this many assists since he played for Denver! He has a fantastic BBIQ and I always feel he is always trying to make the best play for our team every single time down. Yes, he has never won in the playoffs but he has never had this good of a team (when it's healthy). And I've seen Roy have many good games since Miller arrived. Remember Roy's insanely good game against the Warriors last year. Miller was on the court there with him. So it's just not true that Roy can't succeed in a backcourt with Miller. What Roy has to embrace is that our team's offense is not all on him anymore and that's a good thing. He has HELP. And we're winning. We have the same record as the Heat! So while, for a year, I wanted to trade Miller, I am now firmly in the camp of KEEP HIM. Go Blazers.
If we continue to get games like today, Miller taking 4 shots and dishing out 13 assists, while Roy takes 19 shots, then keep him for sure.
Exactly. Last season, inexplicably, he was always looking to score. This season, he's creating for everyone while still getting points in the flow or when we're in a jam.
I almost started a thread about how well Miller played as the PG last night. Throw out the 2nd half of the OT loss to OKC, and Miller is playing the "pure" point as well as anybody in the league the past two games. There is no reason that he can't average 10 apg if he concentrates on moving the ball early in the shot clock instead of standing there pounding nails into the floor with the ball, then launching up some wild shot after the ball comes back to him.
But, that's Nate's offensive game plan - or at least it has been for the past four seasons. If you don't have a fast break (which they rarely did), you milked the shot clock, gave the ball to Roy, let him try to create his own shot and if the defense collapsed on him he'd kick it out for a rushed 3-pointer as the shot clock expired. Blake was good in that role. He couldn't create for himself, or anyone else, but as long as he had his feet set, he was a good 3-point shooter. Miller is the exact opposite. He can create for himself and others, but is a horrible 3-point shooter. So, does Miller's improved play signify that Nate has finally decided to adapt his system to his players' strengths, rather that try to force players to fit his system? Or, is this Andre Miller just deciding to play to his own strengths? Whatever the case, Miller is indeed playing great at the PG spot. He is currently 7th in the league in APG (and plays the least minutes of anyone in the top 15). He is averaging more APG than Tony Parker, Steve Nash, Russell Westbrook, Brandon Jennings, Devin Harris, etc. He is 4th in the league in AST/48, trailing only Rajon Rondo, Chris Paul and Jason Kidd. His AST% of 42.3 is 6th in the league and his highest since he led the league in 2001-02. Yes, it's only 7 games, but right now he's flat out playing like one of the top 5 or 6 PGs in the league. Can he keep that up over a 82 game schedule? Who knows, but right now he's playing well and the team is winning. Hard to complain about that. It will be interesting to see how things change when Oden comes back. Miller has always been one of the best in the league at feeding the low post and driving, drawing the defense and finding the open big man for the alley-oop slam. In the very few minutes Miller and Oden played together last season (due to Nate not starting Miller and limiting Oden to 6 minutes or two fouls in the 1st quarter), they seemed to develop and good rapport. If Miller can find Oden for a lot of easy baskets and dunks, I think it will really help quickly build Greg's confidence - which is exactly what he'll need coming back from yet another injury. BNM
To me it makes no difference who is MORE important because we need both. We need everyone for that matter. But I will say that the arguement some of made last year regarding LMA , and the fact that if he played with a PG like Nash or Paul, he would have better numbers is looking pretty accurate with the way Miller is playing. 3-4 alley oops a game makes a big difference. (Thank Camby for some of those too) Unfortunately for LMA, when Joel and Oden come back those numbers will go down.
Greg openly calling Andre a "breath of fresh air" tells you everything you need to know about what he did for him and his confidence. What will Greg be able to do coming back from injury is hard to say, but with Miller and Armon both willing passers (Armon a little too willing last night) I think he's got a decent shot at flourishing on offense either off the bench or playing alongside the starters. Hopefully we get to see it sooner rather than later.
Watching the Toronto game, I would list our best players in this order: Aldridge, Miller, Roy. Aldridge is playing great on both ends. The increase in alley-oops is GREAT, but he's also doing a ton of things on defense that don't necessarily show up, like pressuring much smaller players. Meanwhile, Miller was amazing, getting great plays out of people like Batum and Matthews (his ONE great play). Roy bailed us out for a bit, but also clanked a fair number that he used to make and never really got to the basket. I don't think he's at his best. Maybe he won't get back to his bestest best, but I think he will get a good deal more efficient this season. I hope. (Boy, though, this was the polar opposite of the Bucks game for Armon and Wesley. They just totally stunk up the place.)
I guess I just don't see him pound the ball and jack up shots as much as you do. Maybe I should pay better attention?
10 shots, 1 assist in the 2nd half/OT of the OKC game. That is what I was referencing in this post, and others during that game thread and the other "Trade Roy" threads. Do I need to spell it out for you next time, or post it multiple times? I'm here to help you understand, if you need me. Miller and Roy should be complimentary, and outside of the 2nd half of the OKC game, they have been.
