First, this is not a doom & gloom post- it’s more of “here’s a reasonable scenario” and what do we do about it post. We know the CBA is up at the end of the season and the owners, come hell or high water, will end up with either a hard cap (that a team cannot exceed) or non guaranteed contracts. It would make sense the union would accept the hard cap as guaranteed contracts are a sacred cow with them. So based on that assumption, let’s set a decently high cap at, say, $60 million. It could easily be higher, but that seems pretty good. Roy’s knees are bone on bone and his effective playing career is most likely over. We’re now going thru the throes of the tail end of it and hoping he will still have a long and prosperous career- but that is to be expected. Not that he still can’t play and contribute, but his days of 76+ games per season, 34+ minutes per game and taking the ball strong to the rim… have a 95% chance of being gone. While I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me, he & Aldridge will collect somewhere around $25-30 million per season. Add Matthews and hopefully Batum to that list and there’s probably another $15 million. That’s $40-45 million per season. If Oden waits and plays sparingly to maximize his contract potential, which seems to be the current scheme, I’m guessing some team will offer him a $10 million per season deal. If we take it, then we’re putting out $50-55 million per season for 5 players- with one and very possibly two that will not be serviceable- and still leaves 10 other positions with $5-10 million left to go around. Not a very rosy picture. So the next question is, what will we do if, and I mean IF, this is somewhat what we’re looking at. And I think this is all very reasonable and probable. For my part, I think we’d start buying out contracts. Starting with Roy and possibly ending with Oden (depending on how he does, of course). But we’ll still have a lot of roster spots to fill. All this to say, I think building a title contending team for the next 3-5 years appears to be slim. For me, I’d be happy to play a running game and make the playoffs and go from there.
The question is what do we do if contracts are non-guaranteed? I guess then, having two injury prone guys on big contracts doesn't really matter all that much. Match whatever Oden is offered. If he keeps getting injured, you just cut him. Same with roy. And Matthews, Joel, Camby, Aldridge, whoever.
The blazers are not going to buy out Brandon Roy's contract. What does that even mean, we'll still have to keep his salary on our books for years. We just can't make it go away.
If Oden stays healthy, Roy doesn't matter. We can have him be a complimentary player or even a bench player NO PROBLEM at all. We just need him there for end of games. Shoot, he can even play point guard where he doesn't attack the rim but is more of a facilitator. A team centered around Rudy-Batum-Aldridge and Oden can be a long term, contender. We just have to trade Miller, JPEC and maybe Camby for more depth and talent.
Yes. Unless you're talking he retires from basketball, which isn't going to happen unless its truly a career ending injury in which we would get the miles type of relief.
WHAT IF....roy rest for 2 weeks...comes back...plays completely fine....he said earlier that he goes through pain in this knee every november its just hurting a little more then usual. he played all summer so maybe all he needs some rest. if its just a bone bruise which was said today then we just might be overreacting. i understand why everyone is getting worked up cuz it does look bad but you never know
You may be right, but this year it's different- it's bone on bone. I cannot recall a player that has been able to overcome that.
Roy could be what Grant Hill is for Phoenix and what he was for the Pistons. Its not the end of the world. That all hinges on Oden.
it was bone on bone last year. this is his left knee where he already had all of his meniscus removed
