I've been giving this a lot of thought; there's a lot to be disappointed and sad about, but I don't feel like blowing the team up is a fantastic idea, either. The pieces we have are, for the most part, young and talented. While Wesley Matthews's best game as a pro is barely an A- effort for the Old Roy, the new reality dictates that we have to accept a little lesser output from each of three good shooting guards. In essence, everyone will have to share the load. And it can be done. Here's my plan, one that I think we could actually see happen. Summary: The short of it is this: Brandon Roy is now Steve Smith. He likely cannot be traded until he's an expiring contract, since he will not improve medically. The Blazers basically have him for five years, or until he retires. However, all is not lost. This team without Roy being Old Roy needs to return to the fairly successful offense of 2007-08 to find the most success. However, this team's pieces are better than the 07-08 team, and can probably find significantly greater success with fewer mistakes, better defense, and similar offensive punch at the perimeter. This post assumes Roy will accept reduced minutes and a bench role. That might not happen right away (especially the latter), but I believe that, by the end of the season and going into next season, he will have learned to accept his reduced but still important role on the team. The Offense: With Roy reduced in role, and everyone else making up the slack, the Portland offense could evolve into a sort of Barkley's Suns offense, where LMA accepts the ball on the post, looks for a single-opponent post-up option, and dishes it out if doubled. Quick passes along the perimeter will find an open shooter (there are two legit outside shooters in the starting lineup, and two more off the bench), allowing for an effective outside-in offense. Second options include Miller or Matthews using their slashing abilities, and Batum or Camby with mid-range jumpers. When the second unit comes in, the shooting gets better. Roy replaces Miller at point, adding a third shooter form LaMarcus to pass to. Removing LMA to play Dante shifts the offense to drive-and-dish, which Matthews and Johnson can facilitate effectively. Having Przybilla available for follow-up tips or dunks will make drivers more bold. The Defense: Without Roy in the starting lineup, adding Matthews gives the Blazers an additional strong defender; instead of one elite defender in the lineup, you now have two (in addition to three above average defenders already), allowing for smothering double-teams and increased opportunities to force turnovers. No longer is Roy's lack of defensive effort a liability against a team with two legit scoring threats at the wing (e.g., Denver or Miami). The bench is built for offensive punch, but does add Amron, Dante, and Joel as good defenders in their own right. Against bench-level opponents, these three can force turnovers and facilitate fast breaks. There is no major drop in wing defense quality, nor is there at center (where we are currently very weak). The Players and their Roles: Starters: Aldridge (32 minutes) LaMarcus can play pretty much as he's done, which means playing off the post as a setup decoy, then taking his man if there's no double team. With Batum, Matthews, Roy, and Fernandez all available to sit on the perimeter to accept a kick-out pass out of the post, LMA won't be double-teamed very much, allowing him to work one-on-one against a defender, which he handles well enough. Batum (32 minutes) Nicolas will receive the green light as a slasher and shooter. He's shown decent potential in the former area this season, and while he is timid after having his shot blocked, confidence will come in time. As an outside shooter he's enough of a threat to keep defenders honest in an inside-out game. Camby (32 minutes) Marcus has the ability to operate as a facilitator in the high post/top of the key, and can make the mid-range jumper, allowing LMA yet another target to kick it out to in the event of a double team. I see him as a sort of Point Center, operating at the top of the key to facilitate lobs to cutters and and passes around the horn to open shooters. Miller (32 minutes) Andre will take over half of Roy's job: cutting and dishing. If LaMarcus's post and pass plays run dry, he can cut with the ball and dish or try for the foul. His game also extends out to about 12-15 feet like Camby's offering a last-ditch jumper if needed. Matthews (24 minutes) Matthews will become the number 3 option in the offense, operating as an outside-in shoot/slash player; he's not as fancy or agile as Roy, but he's more in-control than Bayless was. He can use the threat of the long range bomb to get by his defenders and drive, either to dish or to lay it up. His big strength is that, as a starter, he's a better defender at the SG position, giving us good defenders at 3 or 4 positions at the beginning of the game. The Bench: Roy (24 minutes) Brandon is now this team's supersub, coming in at any of three positions as needed. He's an effective, efficient jump shooter, almost insanely so this year. He is this team's new Martell Webster: a threat from three with the ability to straight-line drive, or fake and fade. Though his athletic ability is going going gone, he's still the sme old craft Roy from the waste up. He will be valuable in much the same way Sabas was valuable after his legs went. Fernandez (24 minutes) Rudy will take on increased minutes, mopping up half of Roy's lost minutes. Much like Matthews, he will be the outside threat with a drive option. In an offense predicated on drive and dish, he'll make a killing from the corners hitting the long ball on passes from Andre and LMA. Cunningham (16 minutes) Dante will play like he's always done, offering a mid-range Camby-like jumper. If he can develop a post game of any stripe, he could plug directly into the LMA high-post offense as needed. As-is, he's a low-risk, high-reward player that offers good defense and the occasional 15 point game. Przybilla (16 minutes) Joel will see reduced minutes until his health is confirmed, but I expect he'll play similarly to Pendergraph: low block threat with the ability to accept a lob pass or shovel pass from a driving Miller/Matthews. Garbage man on the glass, reduced blocking ability but still valuable as a backup. Player Rotation: Point Guard: Andre Miller (32) / Brandon Roy (8) / Armon Johnson (8) Shooting Guard: Wesley Matthews (24) / Rudy Fernandez (16) / Brandon Roy (8) Small Forward: Nicolas Batum (32) / Brandon Roy (8) / Rudy Fernandez (8) Power Forward: LaMarcus Aldridge (32) / Dante Cunningham (16) Center: Marcus Camby (32) / Joel Przybilla (16)
I disagree. Sticking with team as is will stick it into mediocrity for years. Miller and Camby will only have trade value for a year or two. Salary cap being maxed out combined with Portlands lovely geographical location will eliminate the possiblity of bringing in a high profile free agent. The only way to build, IMO, is to try and bring in high level talent through the draft while losing as little remaining talent here as possible.
I didn't mean to frame this as a long-term plan; this is mostly for this season and next. Anything further out I would not be able to predict.
Well-written, Caravan. Readers skipped it because it's not very readable in this narrow format. (I had to copy it to a word processor, which doubled its width and halved its length.) Someone skimming fast will most notice your minutes allocation, but that's the least important part of the post. I suggest you break it into shorter pieces and insert them into relevant threads. The 2007-08 offense was all Roy, so we can't return to it.
