He becomes a UFA if he is not offered a Qualifying Offer. The risk is you lose him to someone willing to pay him more than the Blazers are willing. And he can choose to not sign with the Blazers at all. I would hope that he'd feel some sort of obligation to go through with the rehab and make a go of it with the team that drafted him and paid him so much for not playing much.
Seriously, that would be beyond a LeBron level of a-hole. I've done nothing but defend him, but if he did that, I would lead the mob with a torch and pitchfork.
When asked by Quick about Oden's future last night at the presser, Cho said that Oden will be a RFA this summer. By doing so, was Cho already admitting that the Blazers would offer the QO? I didn't catch it last night, but I just heard that audio of it on 95.5.
I'd be surprised if they have already made an ironclad decision on that so far ahead of having to actually extend the offer or not. I'm guessing he was just imprecisely saying that Oden will be an RFA because usually the QO is default and there's no real reason, right now, to tip their hand about it.
Depending on if other moves happen before then, could they do a 2-3 year deal in the 18-25 mil range? Its a lot of good money after bad, but it'd give him a chance to come back (again), and give you an expiring contract a year or two before Roy's contract finishes up. My reasoning is if they haven't blown the team up before the likely lockout, what moves are the genuinely going to be able to make?
This is a no-brainer once you sit down and work it out. It doesn't affect the cap. To hurt relations between management and Oden (and his agent) by NOT offering the QO just causes him to likely pick another offer other than Portland. And it's splitting hairs to offer him $3M of Paul Allen's money for one year vs. $9M of Paul Allen's money (against that doesn't impact anything else we can sign or do). So you guarantee a QO right now and get that relationship rock solid and ensure that if he does have a good season in 2011/12, he only wants to come back to the team that did him good. The only thing you lose is a 2011/2012 roster spot that could have been given to someone like, ummm, Sean Marks.
I want to see a healthy Greg Oden as part of this team going forward, but at this time - it makes no sense to jump the gun and make the QO. Just wait until the last minute, assess the information you have at the time - how well his surgery went, how well his rehab progresses - and make the decision.
I could see that being a viable strategy. But really it boils down to this for me; even if he manages to rehab in a timely manner and let's say he even puts together one decent-ish, relatively healthy season on the QO contract, does anybody really believe that he's a good investment or can built around in any way shape or form? If everybody else on this team had been the picture of health and Greg were sort of the cherry on top (like Bynum is for the Lakers) I wouldn't worry about it so much, but with a gimpy Roy who has god only knows how much left in the tank, and some serious question marks about the ability of guys like Batum, Aldridge, Matthews, Armon, etc. to be worth building around for the long term, inking Oden to a multi-year deal and expecting him to be a key contributor just seems like a recipe for failure. For Greg's sake I think he's going to need to go to a team with a solid, established front-court rotation where he can help fill in the gaps as a semi-regular when he's actually healthy, but won't actually have any expectations attached. For that to happen on the Blazers Aldridge would have to be significantly better, Camby much younger, and Pryzbilla more reliably healthy. At this point all we can hope for is that LMA makes some kind of sudden leap in production, that Batum blossoms into a bona-fide two way all-star type player and that Cho is able to swing some deals using Miller and Joel (and maybe Camby?) for some younger, more reliable, and/or talented front-court depth.
I think I'd go ahead and give him the QO. It can still be worth it imo. First initial reaction was Oden was done as a Blazer but he's still only 22. My expectations wouldn't be high but it's a risk that's worth taking still, unless you want to see Sean Marks/Fabricio Oberto type players on a regular basis until the end of time. I know giving Greg the QO wouldn't 100% guarantee we wouldn't but I just think it's still worth it to keep him. It's just money.
I'm sure Oden's touched by your unflagging concern to do what's best for him. For my part, I want what's best for the Blazers. I don't see how setting Oden free to seek his destiny in a better situation benefits the Blazers. If the Blazers can trade Oden for some fancy swag, sure, I'm fine with that. But Oden's trade value is probably not super-high at the moment. Just letting him depart for nothing does nothing for Portland (at least, from my perspective of not believing in a psychic aura of disappointment that hangs over Oden and corrupts all who work and live in Oregon). Giving him the QO costs nothing but Paul Allen's cash. It's not cash that can be invested in other free agents, since the team will be over the cap. If Allen would rather cut bait than spend another $8-9 million, I can understand that. But as a fan, I don't want the team to cut bait on a player until not cutting bait hurts their future prospects. No one has yet shown how keeping Oden hurts the franchise.
The risk of giving him the QO is that he takes it and then puts up 25/15 numbers and you lose him as a FA. The risk of not giving him the QO is that some other team is willing to sign a guy who's been incredibly injury prone to a deal at least as big as the QO (about $9M!). If someone offered him $8M, you could go $9M or more and roughly break even. The benefit of not giving him the QO is some other team offers him like $3M and you can offer him $4 or more, but way less than the QO.
When I say "for his sake" I'm not talking about setting him free to find success elsewhere or ease his psyche, I'm just saying that with our current roster I don't think he can be just one of those "rounding out the edges" kind of players. He'd be counted on to be a key cog in the rotation and if he can't do that, the Blazers are going to be over a barrel given what the roster could look like in another year and half -- especially with no guarantee that Pryzbilla resigns here or that Camby will still be able to go. Like I said, maybe Cho is able to bolster the front-court with trades or through the draft and it becomes less of an issue and Greg can be one of those "gravy" players, in which case I'd be fine with the team keeping him around on a very modest contract (I've heard 3 years 15 million batted around by some "experts").
That doesn't make sense. How the team views him (foundational piece or afterthought) is up to them. If they retain him, they are not contractually obligated to view him as a key cog. They can continue to build the team in exactly the same way they would have if they let him go. On the off-chance that he actually does recover from his latest setbacks, it's found money. It's never bad to suddenly have a good center that you weren't counting on. So, I really see no disadvantage to team building by holding onto Oden. Extend the QO and then pretend, to yourself, like you didn't. Build the team as if he departed. If he never recovers, you're no worse off. If, by some chance, he does...you're better off.
This was my thinking as well for a bit, however I think there are options the team can do to make his contract more tolerable. Incentives, a team option for the last year, and of course who knows what the CBA will lead to. It could even lead to partially non-gauranteed contracts. Now is clearly not the time to make decisions one way or the other. We just have to take a wait and hope approach - which is our specialty in Portland. I don't have a whole lot of optimism at the moment either, but time will tell. The wild-card in all of this is what Odens' intentions will be a year from now. Here's hoping that if ever gets back on the court, that he has more loyalty than Lebron.
Does anyone remember that POR/NJN rumor that was making the rounds in Vegas at Summer League? Obviously it didn't go anywhere but the rumor was Portland was asking NJ about Brook Lopez. He's a true center and only a center, was this apparent interest a sign of the teams confidence in Oden?
