Wrong. Millsap was eaten up by LA last night, as was Love and Green has done nothing this season. Your contrarian gig doesn't work with such bad examples.
4 years to me is more meaningful than 4, or 5 games. I need to see more of it before I give Aldridge bonafide props. I'm impressed right now.
Let's talk GameScore - it's a measure of impcat play that takes into account all the major stats, not just points. But like points, a 10 GmSc is like a 10 point game, and a 40 GmSc is like a 40-point game. So, LA's GmSc exploits: Last season, LA had a GmSc of 22+ 5 times (6.4%). This season, LA has had a GmSc of 22+ 4 times (12.9%). In December, LA has has a GmSc of 22+ 4 times (out of 14 games = 28.5%) And Roy's from 2008-09 for comparsion: 23 games of 22+ GmSc (29.4%) Small sample size, I know, but... In December, LMA has played roughly as well as Roy did in 2008-09, which is pretty remarkable when you think about it. Also of note; Roy only had one game better than LMA's best game this season: his 52-point Phoenix game (GmSc 44.1). LMA's two best games this year are both better than Roy's second best effort of that season, as well.
Nope. The numbers I listed were specifically when Beasley was guarding opposing small forwards - not the kind of players Love would be guarding. If you look at Beasley's numbers guarding power forwards, they get much better. Beasley is a classic 3/4 tweener. He has the offensive game of a 3, but can't come close to guarding opposing small forwards. He's the one getting abused on defense, not Love. By the same token, Love's numbers as a 5 look even better than his numbers as a 4. And, due to a lack of decent big men (especially when Darko was out recently - and he's really their only halfway decent big other than Love), Minnesota goes with a small line-up a lot that features Love at center, Beasley at the 4, Brewer at the 3, Johnson at the 2 and Ridnour/Telfair at the 1. I used their primary positions, as that's where they start and play the majority of their minutes, but if you look at Beasley as a 4 and Love as a 5 - he plays 22% of his team's total center minutes (about 10.5 MPG at the 5 and 24.5 MPG at the 4) you get: Center - Love PER = 31.1 Opponent's PER = 13.2 Net PER = +17.8 SF - Beasley PER = 21.7 Opponent's PER = 17.4 Net PER = +4.3 As might be extected, Love's rebounding differential against opposing centers goes down a little (from +11.3 REB/48 to +9.1 REB/4), but is still overwhelimingly positive. What's really amazing is how well he scores against opposing centers: Center - Love PTS/48 = 33.7 Opponent's PTS/48 = 19.4 Net PTS/48 = +14.3 With both Love and Beasley posting better numbers when playing up one position, you wonder why Minnesota doesn't go with the small line-up more. The problem is they have a lack of quality SGs and SFs (outside of Beasley). Brewer is a decent defender (way better than Beasley at guarding 3s), but horrible on offense. The rookie Johnson just isn't that good at anything right now (PER of 10.0). This is where the return of Martell Webster could actually help them. They can play Marty at the 3 when they go small. He's a proven defender at that position, and while he's inconsistent, he's a better offensive player than Brewer. But, even if that does somewhat help their depth at the 2/3, they are still forced to start and give big minutes to the well below average rookie Johnson at the 2. And, most importantly, it leaves them with no shot blocking presence to defend the paint. In spite of his other flaws, at least they get that from Darko when he's in the game. Both Love and Beasley have the bulk and stength to hold their positions on defense when playing up one position, but with an underized Love at the 5 and an undersized Beasley at the 4, you're not going to get that weak side help defense you get from having a shot blocking presence in the game. What Minnesota really needs is more good players. I know that sounds obvious, but the way people around here bang on Love for his team's record, maybe it isn't. As I demonstrated in my previous post, not matter how much Kevin Love outproduces his opponent, the rest of his fellow starters get totally abused on a nightly basis. It's tough to win games when 4 out of your 5 starters are getting worked over game after game. BNM
Love is probably the real deal, but... but... the junk around Love seems no worse than the junk around LeBaby in Cleveland... if Love is all that and a bag of rebounds, why can't his team beat ANYONE?
Google doesn't take you back very far and the key word was "old.". In the 80s, Riley and the Lakers used to always say "No rebounds, no rings."
Sorry, I'm not sure I understand the question. Who is LeBaby? Is that Lebron, when he was in Cleveland? Last I checked he's no longer in Cleveland, and when he was, he had way better temmates than Love currently has in Minnesota. First off, I don't think anyone in their right mind thinks Love is nearly the same level of player as LeBron and no one has argued that Love is an MVP candidiate, just a borderline all-star. LeBron is the two time reigning NBA MVP and a six time all-star game starter. He's flat out way better than Kevin Love. So, any team with LeBron plus crap is going to win more games than a team with Kevin Love plus crap. When LeBaron was in Cleveland, his supporting cast was WAY better than Love's current teammates. You're kidding, right? LeBron had Shaq, Ilgauskas, Mo Williams, Jamison, Varegao, etc. He was surrounded by above average to very good players. Last year, his top 5 teammates all had PER > 15.2. Love has two teammates with PER > 15 (Ridnour and Beasley) the rest of their starters are below average to awful and their bench is horrible. Guys that are starting in Minnesota would not have made Cleveland's roster last season, or at best, would have been 3rd string. LeBron >>>>> Love LeBron's Teamates >>>>> Love's Teammates LeBron's Team >>>>>>>>>> Love's Team So, big surprise, last year's Cavs won more games than this year's Timberwolves will. BNM
But Love's PER at Center is in the LeBron range; of course PER might not be the best stat to judge a good player on a shitty team by. There is a real risk of stat inflation if, say, your team jacks uP a lot of misses and only one player is ever in a position to rebound, play on the post, etc. The Internet sucks for this kind of discussion; in person I'm sure we both would come off nicer.
Not really. LeBron posted a PER of 50 last year and averaged 72.2 PTS/48 when he played center in Cleveland. Unfortunately, his opposing center also had a PER of 50 and scored 65 PTS/48. So, not much of an advantage to playing LeBron at the 5. Ha ha, just kidding small sample size and all that. Point is, center is not Love's primary position, power forward is and the numbers he puts up while playing power forward are much closer to his total aggregate numbers. BNM
I think LA has a shot at the game if Roy stays out of the line up. I think it is helping that Camby and Joel are out as well
I'd love to see BNM's tax return, by the way... Enron would never have been caught if he'd been running the numbers.
Legitimately, LMA plays well at center. These games are proving that much. If we had three more good pieces (say a backup SF, a backup PG, and a starting PF) we'd be in a lot better shape than we are now. This version of LMA with Channing Frye at PF would be fun to watch, imho.
I assume you're referring to Love and not LeBron... Love's number at center are not next to meaningless. He plays about 10.5 MPG at center and 24.5 MPG at PF. Due to the difference in playing time, his overall numbers are closer to his production at power forward, but the minutes he plays at center are not insignificant. For simplicity sake, I just used his numbers at PF (as well as the numbers for the other 4 Minnesota starters at their primary positions) in my original post. I did not mention Love's numbers at center until you wrote: To show that Love/Beasley don't swap men on defense (i.e. Love guard SFs while Beasley guards PFs). The fact is Beasley is horrible at guarding SFs, and both Beasley and Love play up one position, and do so effectively, a significant amount of the time. BNM
it looks like LMA now has a higher PER than love over the last 7 games. too bad he didn't start this earlier.
Yes, most definitely. He gets a lot more rebounds and blocks more shots when playing center, and he scores just as much, if not more, and draws more fouls. However, this is not new. During his rookie year, he played almost all of his minutes at center next to Zach at power forward. First, when Joel was injured after getting kneed in the balls, and then later when the trade deadline passed and the team finally gave up on showcasing Jamaal Magloire and made Aldridge the full time starting center. That March, Aldridge had some huge games (30 points on March 1 in his first game as a full time starring center, and games of 24/17 with 10 ORB and 4 BLK and 27/14 with 9 ORB and 3 BLK), and statistically was having a better month than Brandon Roy - until the very last day of the month when Aldridge only had 2 points and 4 rebounds in 7 minutes and had his rookie season ended when he was dianosed with Wolff–Parkinson–White syndrome. BTW, that was the season I posted my weekly Rookie EFF reports, and that March was Roy's best month as a rookie - and Aldridge was having the better month right up until the very last day. He ended up second in Rookie of the Month voting to Roy. After the Blazers drafted Oden and traded Zach, Aldridge has played almost all of his minutes at power forward, and his rebounding and blocks have both decreased - until very recently. But, now that he is playing more minutes at center, his ORB%, TRB% and BLK% are all the highest they have been since his rookie season (when he played center almost exclusively). BNM
Great points... I'd forgotten about that rookie season. Has he really been playing out of position all this time, you think?
He's averaging 25/11 with 2.5 BLK over the last seven games - that's some pretty serious production. BNM
