Butler the past two seasons - PERs of 14.5 and 13.7 Hobbled Roy this season - PER of 15.0. Trading for Butler seems more like a nightmare.
And ... then what? You get nothing for Roy, there is a lockout, and a new hard and lower cap makes any cap space a moot point? I suppose Dallas may do it, if only because even an injured Roy is a better offensive player than Butler. I like the idea of Miller/Przy being used at some point in a trade, if only because Miller has more trade value.
Salary matching issues aside, most teams would trade a couple solid vets/prospects for a couple years of a Roy. Bob Whitsitt could get it done.
If there will be a hard cap, that makes Roy's value even lower in the future. If he truly is done as an All-Star/Elite player in the NBA, we have a better chance of trading him now than we will a year from now or two years from now. Personally, I don't look at getting him off the books as getting nothing for him. I don't want to see the team have to pay a guy a max contract for five years when he's a shadow of himself. I'd trade Roy, Miller, AND Prz because I think this team needs a retooling and none of those guys fit our longterm plans.
Whitsitt was the type of wheeler-and-dealer we need. The way you get another team to trade for Roy is, you give negative (his contract) plus positive (a good yet cheap player) in exchange for zero (a LaFrentz-type contract, injured like Roy and can't play). This way the salaries match. But Roy can play once a week (poorly) and the new LaFrentz can't even do that. So we come out behind, having given up a good player. So Nik is right. Wait till closer to the end of his contract, when he's worth a little as an expiring. Every season, a Mills or a Marks will now remain unemployed because Roy fills that roster spot. He's the new LaFrentz or Miles, except he'll titillate us in a game now and then, and provide Quick with newsprint on slow news days. Since Cho keeps his lips zipped, the Oregonian needs Roy quotes to sell papers, so maybe they'll pitch in on his salary.
What's Roy's PER the last month or so? And is there any indication that it's ever going to get better than it's been? Ed O.
The funny thing about Roy's knees is, they won't fix themselves and surgery won't help, so as he gets older it will only get worse, not better. Therefore, this is not his lowest possible on-court value.
No one on this forum knows how healthy Brandon is or will be. Certainly not me. But my guess is now is not the best time to deal. His stock will not go lower because his contract will only get shorter. i keep going back to some of the games this year. His good ones and his bad ones. Now i understand that the thinking is "yeah he will have a few good ones once in a while". But when i think about his bad ones, I just can't be sure if it just wasn't because his mind has not adjusted to new body. Think about how many times he made a move to the basket, and he actually got the rim and he just plain missed the wide open layin. His body was successful making the move, but he just plain mentally choked. Yes there were other plays where he dribbled into traffic and was stripped or rejected. Some of those plays happened to him when he was healthy too. They were just bad basketball decisions. What I am wondering is if after his extended layoff he will be better prepared mentally for his new role. He needs to know what he can and can't do. Gone are the days where he commands a double team, so we should not ever see him dribble into one anymore. But from watching him the first few weeks, he can still run, he can still shoot, his range has improved, he can still pass, and he can still get to the basket. He just can't finish the same way, so he needs to figure a better way to finish too. At that point his value will be higher. That is my guess
It's just interesting that we're having the same discussion over Roy at age 26 that the people in LA are having over Kobe Bryant at age 32.
What's really interesting is that Kobe is still dropping 25/night with a 24 PER and that he's played in 34 out of 34 games this season. If this is what is to become of Brandon, I'm good with that.
You were using statistics incorrectly to try to defend Roy. Do you think the stats you posted are any indication of the capabilities of the two players moving forward? Ed O.
I don't think anybody has any firm grasp on the capabilities of the two players moving forward. I do know that a relatively healthy Butler has a lower PER the past two seasons than the Roy we've seen this season. Unless you're suddenly a clairvoyant, I don't think any predictions of future on-court value can be derived from these facts. They are both poor/average NBA players at this point; the difference, I suppose, is that one of the two has injury issues that explain his performance. Injury issues that may, or may not, make him a lesser player than Caron Butler in future seasons. I'm also still unclear on how the stats "incorrectly" defended Roy. In your mind, I suppose?
So you think that those PERs are an indication of future performance? You either do or you don't. Or you don't know. If you don't, or if you don't know, then using that stat is not really intellectually honest. Ed O.
