Blazers 55% after win vs Nets Grizzlies 54% after todays loss to Bulls Amazingly we were like 88% a week ago today. I think its like a cops line at a bad accident... "nothing left to see here folks" Maybe the grizz Gm is on the $$$ with his prediction. http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
Remember, the odds are looking at the overall picture and playing out everyone's schedules 5,000 times simulated to create a multitude of scenarios that eventually come to a % of times that Portland is the 8-seed vs. percentage of times that Memphis is the 8-seed, etc. If Portland is playing at home to the Nets, nothing really changed by the one win, they were projected to win like 4,995 of those 5,000 games anyway. So losing that game would cause them to plummet, but winning doesn't mean much. Similarly, Memphis losing to the 3rd best team in the East doesn't impact their % much since they were expected to lose. As the weeks go on and teams like New Orleans and Denver pull 1-2 games further ahead of Portland (with less remaining games to be played), their odds amplify even higher since there are fewer games for them to lose ground and for Portland to make up those games. So those teams all get higher percentages and Memphis and Portland get fewer of those chances of those teams plummeting. Third, there is also the possibility that future teams that Portland play on their schedule got better in the last week and it changes the odds Portland wins those games in the 5,000 scenarios. So if Portland plays San Antonio and the Lakers like 6 more times and Memphis only plays them 4 times, meanwhile LA and San Antonio are on fire in the last week, it possibly lowers Portlan's win total by 0.3 compared to Memphis' 0.2, in which that 0.1 difference causes Memphis to get the 8-seed in a few thousand more combined scenarios (out of the hundreds of thousands of combinations) than they would have prior to LA and San Antonio having this hot streak. Just an example of how the play of other teams affect those teams hovering around the 8-seed.
If LMA has even close to a bad night, the offense now is so one-dimensional the team then struggles to score. Once the schedule gets more difficult, I fully expect things to get ugly unless Cho has some master move involving expiring contracts up his sleeve. Also, for a guy who doesn't want anybody to know his plans, is telling Nic Batum he isn't going anywhere a good idea? I mean, I suppose it could be a lie by Cho to provide a smokescreen, but if so, that's pretty low of him.
