It's a little more complicated than bid/ask, but similar enough. The difference is that Melo can "talk down" his value to some bidders by saying he won't sign an extension with them. Otherwise if the Bulls offer shit and someone else offers shit+, and shit+ is appealing enough to Denver, we lose. It would suck to just lowball and someone else comes in with only a slightly better offer to take it. Obviously, Denver has its own agenda. If they lose Melo, they may want to rebuild by just losing Melo's salary immediately (let him walk). If they let him walk, they can still bid on his services, and perhaps Melo finds the bids for his services not to his liking (e.g. he doesn't want to play for New Jersey). Melo takes a big chance that the new CBA doesn't screw him over. He could be in limbo for however long a lockout/strike happens and then there might be a hard cap - or a "Melo Rule" that somehow allows the Nuggets to offer WAY WAY more than anyone else. Or a much lower minimum salary, or less guaranteed years on a max contract, etc. Unsigned and no CBA, he could get hit by a bus and lose it all. Denver's made it quite clear that they want a cheap/young talent to gamble on and picks. I suspect they believe Noah is the real deal and effectively already panned out (worth the contract). I would certainly trade Noah as the key piece for Melo, but I don't know any actual deal that works under the CBA involving him. ESPN trade machine says this works: Taj, Noah, Korver, Brewer, and Salabrine for Anthony. It also says this works: Taj, Korver, Brewer, Scalabrine, Johnson, Asik, and Bogans. LOL
I don't think they want a bunch of junk. The NJ deal consisted of a young big with upside and a cheap contract to boot, plus draft picks, plus cap ballast.
The first trade leaves us thin in front court help. Asik/thomas/boozer/add Deng to that, it is enough to make real noise in the playoffs? I dont know.
There is a lot of nonsense in this thread that I hesistate to even reply. But first of all, Noah is integral to the bulls going anywhere. He is the lynch pin of the defense and important offensive piece. The bulls had the toughest strength of schedule over the first 20 games and managed to go 12-8. Since then they have played mostly shitty teams and now have the 27th overall strength of schedule. So that 19-6, mostly without Noah is a mirage if you think they could do that against good teams. And if you don't think Denver has the talent to be a contender, you're not paying attention. Denver is only 3.5 games out of 3rd in the West even with all of the Melo'drama and was a few bad late game plays from getting to the finals two years ago. And they are positioned to be free agent players next year. Put David West on Denver in Kenyon Martins spot next year and they are right back in the mix. Lawson is a potential starter, move Chauncey to the 2, and that's still an elite talent level team. And finally, keeping Deng and playing him at the 2 minus Noah is an absolute defensive nightmare. Boozer is already slow on rotations and Thomas can't be expected to do anything for much longer. The bulls already struggle with teams that can shoot from the outside and a slow Deng and a defensively mediocre Melo would only exacerbate that flaw. And no shot blocking would be a disaster. It's possible to cover up for one guy out five like has been done for Korver and BG, but multiple guys without a shotblocker is impossible. And that doesn't even begin to sort out the offense. Does Rose become the third option? Because both Melo and Boozer need a high volume of shots to be productive and effective. I don't see that being a good mix. Melo hasn't shown anything lately that says he is more interested in winning than anything else. I don't see him making the sacrifices that lead to championships. The bulls are better off with Deng and Noah and upgrading at SG.
The winning formula seems to be 4 star level players. 3 star level players was good enough a few years back, when the Heat won and when the Lakers won their first (against the current Celtics). The Celtics have Garnet, Pierce, Allen, and Rondo. The Lakers have Kobe, Gasol, Odom, Artest, and Bynum. The Spurs have Duncan, Ginobili, Parker, and Jefferson. The Bulls are winning lots of games with an easy schedule, as you point out, but adding Noah back into the mix doesn't appear to get us to the true contender status. We seem a lot like the Utah Jazz teams that put up really good records and failed in the playoffs - in fact, we have a lot of the same players (Boozer, Korver, Brewer), and Rose and Deron Williams being the featured players. I don't know that anyone here has suggested that Rose become anything but our #1 option, just that having a 2nd guy who can be a #1 option would take the pressure off him and make opponents pay for double teaming him so much. As for "volume" of shooting, the Celtics do just fine finding the right shots for their guys. The Heat find enough shots for LeBron and Wade to average 25+ (more than Rose) and for Bosh to average 18 and 5 other players to average at least 5. The Bulls are averaging 81 FGA per game. Your "volume" guy, Boozer, takes 14 of those. Rose takes 20. Deng takes 14. There are still 33 FGA/game to be taken. Roughly 40% of our FGA are being taken by guys with PER less than 14. Anthony takes 19 FGA/game - it sure seems like there are enough touches to go around. It seems likely to me that if the Bulls stand pat, or just find an SG like JR Smith, they're going to have a really good regular season record and fail in the playoffs like Utah or the Suns of recent seasons. I think quite highly of Noah, but I don't value the center position as much as you seem to. The Heat are much better positioned in the playoffs than we are with their three stars and 3pt shooters off the bench - they're playing Z, Dampier, Magloire, and Juwann Howard at C. The Bulls won 6 championships without a guy as good as Noah at C, the Celtics have a platoon of centers, and I don't see an actual C on the Spurs' roster. So if we're not going to be a real contender this season - a tough proposition given we had to fill out our roster with cap space after signing Boozer and can't even get near the LT threshold in salaries, the next best thing is to position ourselves going forward. The question is whether we're better off with 3 stars (like Miami) and filling the C position with guys like Asik, Thomas, and Z/Dampier/Magloire/Howard (guys signed for MLE and vet minimum). Your infatuation with defense is to the point of absurdness. The Bulls under Skiles had the #1 defense in the league playing Eddie Curry and Ben Gordon and your slow Deng.
There's a lot of interesting stuff going on in this thread. Talent was never the question, was it? The question was whether Denver was able to build a contender. It's easy to call an infatuation with defense "absurd" as Denny Crane has but the championship teams, since the early '90s have always been first and foremost as defensive orientated. It's the same this year, with the Heat, Orlando, Spurs, Hornets and Lakers -- the five teams I view as legit contenders -- all establishing their bonafides. I never viewed Denver as being a contender, even though they had enough talent, because I never thought they were properly focused to win in the playoffs. I'll stand by that. Denny: Don't you think that Rose is actually the Bulls' volume scorer. When the team is shooting poorly, he's the one who will take thirty shots (whether he's shooting well or not) to keep the Bulls in the game. Boozer seems to me to shoot much less and in more consistently better situations. He doesn't take bad shots, even if his team is struggling. I think Anthony and Rose would most benefit from the pairing. I think both of them would see a rather substantial increase in shooting percentage where they can rely upon each other when the rest of the team is struggling. If I was to pick apart your thoughts, I also take issue with you citing Skiles as an example of the limitations of defense in carrying a team in the playoffs. I think Skiles' defensive system was not particularly well designed for a seven game series. The rotations were too predictable, especially with players like Hinrich and Gordon who struggled to recover on three point shooters after the doubled down. I think Skiles' systems as a whole, offense and defense, were too predictable when the playoffs rolled around, which was partially due to the fact that we had a young team with no A-level all-star.
Another thing is that most of the teams Denny named with no C or thin depth at C is that they play excellent team defense. We cant rely on Kurt Thomas to play at the level he's been playing at in the playoffs since we've been using him so much now. Noah is our defensive anchor and our best defensive player and I'm not willing to give that up for a guy who plays mediocre defense. But who knows, we could get Melo and he could come here and play completely like a beast untamed, I doubt itll be on the def end.
I dunno Thunder, i think Nene, Billups, and K-Mart all have reputations as very good defensive players. Coupled with Afflalo/Kleiza/Dahntay Jones in the Keith Bogans role, and i think they've generally had a defense that's been better than average. They've fallen off this year, but they've had to replace lots of defense first K-Mart minutes with offense first Al Harrington minutes. I don't get the criticism of Deng's defense at all. With Melo on board, or not, Deng has been and would continue to be covering the better wing defender very frequently. It wouldn't change the way he's used very much at all. And so far, it's been an extremely successful way to use him.
Again... what they want and what they are going to be able to get seem to be different things. What do you think they can actually get? ----------- The other day I saw a proposal for trading Deng to the Kings for Fran Garcia, Beno Udrih, and Carl Landry. I didn't like it. But the little bit I like is that the Kings are a team that's well under the cap, has lots of flexibility, and could use a player like Deng. And I actually sort of like Udrih, Garcia and Landry. I do not think they'd simply dump Udrih though, because he's actually quite decent and then they'd have no PG (even if you call Evans the PG, then they have no SG next to him). Udrih+Evans seems to work for them, and I don't see why they'd go and mess it up. So let's modify things a bit. The Nuggets want young players and expiring contracts, not Deng. If Melo is ammenable to coming here, how about a three way sending Lu to the Kings: * Bulls get: Melo, Fran Garcia, (Shelden Williams, Anthony Carter, Melvin Ely filler) * Nuggets get: Landry, Taj, Asik, JJ, 2 first round picks, and roughly $16M ($11M luxury tax plus about $5M in reduced salary payouts) * Kings get: Deng, CJ Watson, $3M cash from the Bulls We end up with 1- Rose, Carter 2- Garcia, Brewer/Korver, Bogans 3- Melo, Brewer/Korver 4- Boozer, S. Williams 5- Noah, KT, Ely (likely spot minutes of Boozer/S. Will here too) Thinking it out, that's a pretty reasonable trade for all involved, if you drop the illusion that the Nuggets are going to get an absolute premium in return. Obviously the Bulls are well balanced going forward. The Nuggets get tremendous savings by drastically dropping their luxury tax bill and reducing salary, in addition to picks and not entirely useless young players. If they follow up that trade with moving Billups or The little bit I like is that the Kings are a team that's well under the cap, has lots of flexibility, and could use a player like Deng. And I actually sort of like Udrih, Garcia and Landry. I do not think they'd simply dump Udrih though, because he's actually quite decent and then they'd have no PG (even if you call Evans the PG, then they have no SG next to him). Udrih+Evans seems to work for them, and I don't see why they'd go and mess it up. So let's modify things a bit. The Nuggets want young players and expiring contracts, not Deng. If Melo is ammenable to coming here, how about a three way sending Lu to the Kings: Bulls get: Melo, Fran Garcia, (Shelden Williams, Anthony Carter, Melvin Ely filler) Nuggets get: Landry, Taj, Asik, JJ, 2 first round picks, and roughly $16M ($11M luxury tax plus about $5M in reduced salary payouts) Kings get: Deng, CJ Watson, $3M cash from the Bulls We end up with 1- Rose, Carter 2- Garcia, Brewer/Korver, Bogans 3- Melo, Brewer/Korver 4- Boozer, S. Williams 5- Noah, KT, Ely (likely spot minutes of Boozer/S. Will here too) Thinking it out, that's a pretty reasonable trade for all involved. Obviously the Bulls are well balanced going forward. The Nuggets get tremendous savings by drastically dropping their luxury tax bill and reducing salary, in addition to picks and not entirely useless young players. The Kinds absorb Deng's big contract, but largely offset it by moving Garcia's and getting cash, and they lock in a good solution at SF. The questions would be 1. Can the Nuggets get a better deal from some other team... maybe. Not clear what they really want at this point. 2. Will Melo actually sign an extension with the Bulls. Also not clear. It's not Derrick Favors, but he seems to be off the table, at least for the moment. The Kinds absorb Deng's big contract, but largely offset it by moving Garcia's and getting cash, and they lock in a good solution at SF. The questions would be 1. Can the Nuggets get a better deal from some other team... maybe. Not clear what they really want at this point. 2. Will Melo actually sign an extension with the Bulls. Also not clear.
MikeDC, I think your typo of Kinds for Kings was somehow Freudian. Also, I think we're both being revisionist of our history of the Gasol deal. It seems to me that the driving issue wasn't where Gasol wanted to go, but that the rules suddenly changed about what the Grizzlies wanted, and they didn't bother telling anyone but LA. But that's just my recollection. I suppose that I'm recalling people stating that they felt West must have had some influence in this move, but yeah, he was gone.
First of all, there's a difference between playing enough defense and playing none. Lakers won last year and were 4th in defense, and 9th in points allowed. Lakers won the year before and were 6th in defense and 13th in points allowed. Celtics won the year before and were 1st and 2nd. They beat the Lakers who were 5th and 19th, who were missing Bynum. San Antonio won the year before and were 2nd and 1st. Heat won the year before and were 9th and 14th. San Antonio won the year before and were 1st and 1st. So you can clearly win championships (or lose in the finals) and be a median type team defensively (Lakers, Lakers, Heat). How about offense? Lakers 11th best offense, 12th most PPG. Lakers 3rd and 3rd Celtics 10th/11th (Lakers 3rd/4th) Spurs 5th/14th Heat 7th/6th Spurs 8th/18th How do the Bulls stack up? Defense 1st/3rd, Offense 20th/17th Hence the infatuation to absurdity comment. You can't focus on nothing but defense and expect to challenge for the championship with a 20th ranked offense. Skiles 49 win team was 1st in defense, 6th in PPG allowed, 21st in offense, 13th in PPG, and got bounced in the 2nd round. Infatuation with defense to absurdity on the team's part (and that's my point about Skiels). They actually beat the defending champs (Heat) 4-0, but only because Wade and SHaq were injured (Wade mised 31 games, Shaq missed 42). Vinnie's team with Gordon nearly bounced the champions in the 1st round (we lost 4-3 with lots of OT); that team was 15th offensively, 8th in scoring, 18th defensively and 21st giving up points - but a much better scoring team after the trade for Miller and Salmons. So the numbers seem to back just about everyone's gut feeling that we need more offense. A guy like Melo fills the bill. Whether we can get him is an entirely different question, but it sure seems likely he's going to be in another uniform next season (if not at the trade deadline). To answer your question to me: of course Rose is our volume shooter, we don't have anyone else. When he takes 30 shots, his efficiency is terrible. You pointed out that a guy like Melo would help his efficiency, and I heartily agree. You don't have to take the ball out of Rose's hands, either. Miami is proving that there's enough ball to go around for LeBron and Wade; they're being talked about as potential co-MVP winners this year. The Celtics all along prove there's enough ball to go around for Allen, Garnett, and Pierce with a dominant ball handling PG. For Fastforward7: I'll quote you: "play excellent team defense." Exactly. TEAM, not individual player defense. Even if Melo hurts us defensively, you think it's enough to drop us to worse than, say, 6th best? Judging by the numbers, with his offense and 6th best defense, we're absolutely contenders. I'd point out that 82games.com says opposing SFs have a PER of 10 against him (indication of actually awesome defense). On the other hand, the suggestion that addressing our need at SG, with a player like JR Smith isn't going to help the defense a lick, and it certainly isn't going to get us into the top half of the league offensively.
Maybe a lil bit Freudian... I do think the Kings might be a team that'd like Deng. It's sort of hard to assess Deng's trade value. As a player, he good enough to want, but not quite good enough to be special on his own. And he's paid a lot. But still, I can see why he'd make sense for a team like the Kings, even while he wouldn't make sense for a lot of other teams. Like... what's a team like the Kings to do? They've got a nice set of guards, a decent PF prospect (even if he's a nutbar), and a cache of cap space they won't be able to give away. At the same time, most teams can't afford to not use that space. If they simply make no effort whatsoever to get better, they'll bleed fans and revenue. I think the only way is to really hit on your draft picks, but you still end up needing to get someone with that cap space. Deng sort of fits into that category. He's slightly over paid, but they'd have to overpay a FA if they went that way. And they have a hard time retaining talent. Being a small market team kind of sucks.
Look at those front lines too though: Shaq, Duncan, KG/Perk, Pau/Bynum and the pivotal factor in the Celts and Lakers beating one another was the respective health of their C's. When Perk was out Lakers won, when Bynum was out Celtics won. Size and talented big guys play a huge role. KT/Boozer/Gibson aint getting it done against the biggest and best front courts. IMO those defense numbers are a lot more telling than the offensive ones too. Obviously you need both but its not that hard to find scoring at the SG/SF spot in the NBA. Melo is a particularly great scorer but I reckon getting a run of the mill 20 ppg scorer would put you at least around league average for offense. It is damn hard finding that 7'0 defensive anchor and you guys have one. On the other hand its not that difficult to get a Jason Richardson, Stephen Jackson, Vince Carter, Caron Butler, Kevin Martin, etc. type of player. Same goes for 6th man types; Corey Maggette, Jamal Crawford, JR Smith, Barbosa, etc. These guys get moved around for relatively little. Yeah, they're no Melo but if Rose is your go-to guy and perimeter super star then these type of guys should be more than adequate to go alongside Rose, Boozer, Deng, and Noah. Scoring isn't that hard to acquire. If you're to acquire Melo for Noah then would KT/Boozer/Gibson ever get it done down low? I don't think so and I don't see many options by which you could add a defensive anchor type of guy.
Look at the long list of defensive bigs we've had on the Bulls since 2004 or so. They're EASY to come by. You mention Perk is out, well KG has been out, too. That would be their best two (and starting) bigs, and they trot out Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal to replace them, both players not on the team last season. Easy to come by. And they've got the best record in the East, to boot. The guys you list who are available are nowhere near as good as Melo, but they'd do in a pinch. Their salaries are HUGE in most cases, so why not pay Melo and have a current top 10 type player instead of having a former one (at best) who has no future with the team? We'd have to give up several bench players or a guy like Deng (who has a sizable contract) to get 'em, too. Naturally, JR Smith (who's not been traded so much) attracts the Bulls attention because he's cheap and an expiring deal. Go figure. Anyhow, the Bulls have the MLE and other tradeable contracts to use in the offseason to try to build a contender. They're not going to be one this year, with or without Melo. But with Melo they have a decently long window to contend for maybe a decade.
Concerning the Carmelo situation, I have the following thoughts: 1). Normally stars get to call their own shots, but this situation is somewhat different because of the new bargaining agreement. If Melo doesn't have an extension by the trade deadline, about 60 million in guaranteed money is going to go down the toilet. He's talking a hard line right now, but how much does New York really mean to him? If he's like most NBA players, he's probably burned through all the money he's made so far, and needs this contract to last him and his extended family for the rest of his life. I wouldn't be surprised if he magically becomes more open to compromise as the deadline comes closer and nothing appears imminent. Denver has more leverage than the typical team in their situation. 2). For the first time in a while, middling players on rookie contracts probably have negative trade value. For a team like Denver, 'nothing' is probably a better return than mediocre NBA prospects like James Johnson and Anthony Randolph. Their upside isn't all that great, and scarce cap space is probably better than having them on the payroll. This makes the potential offers New York and Chicago could put forth even crappier than they already are. Half the guys either team would be willing to give up couldn't properly count as cap ballast. 3). Cap space is probably going to be more valuable next summer than this summer. Since no one is sure exactly how much cap space there is going to be, the uncertainty should discount its value. After the bargaining agreement it will also be harder to come by, so teams will probably be more likely to hoard it. This might be Chicago's saving grace. All of our mediocre bench players whose contracts expire in 2011 ought to have more value than they normally would, especially since Denver's better off putting in all their chips for next year anyways, (better draft, less wins to start off with). All in all, I still think Melo to Chicago is a long shot. Every signal that's come directly from him suggests that he wants to go to NY and only NY. The only talk we've garnered has come from 'his camp'. If he is in fact willing to compromise for money, there are a lot of other teams that could make better offers than we could.
The dollar amount to be made by signing now vs. signing this summer or next year is more or less something pulled out of an anus. Nobody knows what the next CBA will hold. It could cram down existing contracts, or it might not. Obviously a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, but actually attaching some dollar amount is pretty iffy.
