October and Now - How did/do you feel?

I thought we were a major player away then and I still think we're a major player away now.

To me, the injuries/new team jelling stuff all sort of cancels each other out. We tend not to look at other teams as much as we do our own, so we underestimate their improvements as well. I don't think, for instance, anyone was expecting Lebron and Wade to turn the Heat into a defensive powerhouse, but they're certainly a very good defensive team now as well. They'll get healthier over time and have a fairly enviable financial position and, like us, have youth on their side.

Boston less so, but for this year I think a healthy Bulls team loses a series to a healthy Celtics or Heat team almost every time. So that puts us at the 3rd best team in the East by my unscientific judgement. The Magic and Hawks are right there in the same vicinity as us. These teams are similar, I think, because they're at what I think is a similar point as us. They see they're falling behind, and what are they going to do about it? The Magic's response has been to try like mad to add players. I don't know that I would have added the guys they did (Arenas looks pretty done to me). The Hawks probably have a year or two window before Joe Johnson's production really starts dropping, and I could see them making a similar sort of trade as well. Or, they just stay good but not good enough.

Around the EC, I see the Knicks getting better and looking likely to add another very good player too. So if I project down the road, I still see the Bulls as not really separating themselves from several teams, and probably clearly inferior to the Heat.

I think we're in a similar position. The one thing I don't really like is spending a big wad of cash on bench players. Someone said recently the Nuggets looked like a team that was built for the regular season. To me, splitting $16M between Brewer, Korver, Watson, and Bogans is an inefficient way to spend money and building the team for a regular season rather than in the playoffs. Over the long-haul of a season, it's great to have a bunch of decent players that can fill in. It gets you more wins.

But in the playoffs, rotations shorten up, and you need to have the best players out there at all time. A team that goes 7-8 deep with a $14M player and 3 $800k players as backups is going to drop more games in the regular season. But in the playoffs, the backups will rarely play, and the team built for the regular season will square off a $5M player against a $14M player no matter who they play.

The very best teams in the league will have both a high quality set of starters and a reasonable set of bench players. Don't get me wrong, I like Brewer and Korver quite a bit. But I'd rather have a and "8" with a "2" backing him up in the playoffs than two "5"s. The best situation would be to have an 8 with a 5 backing him up.

 

Given that we haven't seen the whole team together, I think it is still too early to tell how good this bulls team can be. Noah was already hurt when Boozer came back so this team still has a lot of room to improve.

As far as the competition, it boils down to whether the Celtics can stay healthy. They are the only team that is clearly better than the bulls. But they are also thinner in depth than the bulls at the 1-4 spots. I most fear Orlando, but for whatever reason they can't seem to put it together. Howard should be both the best way to stop Rose and beat the bulls at their own game of rebounding. But they don't. If they'd play inside out for the whole game, I think they'd win 65 games. But they don't.

As far as Miami goes, while I agree with MikeDC on having better frontline starters, I don't agree that Miami has better talent. The bulls starting 5 is clearly better than Miami's 5. The only hole the bulls have is at the 2, and even there the bulls match up well defensively, which is how you win in the playoffs. Miami is also much thinner depth wise than the bulls. When one of their big three goes down, they lose 4 of 5. If Mike Miller turns out to be a big piece that could change, but so far no. I like the bulls' chances against the heat if both are at full strength. And I like $16 mil for Brewer/Korver/Watson/Bogans >> Miller/Haslem/Anthony/Jones.

 

We did a prediction thread back on the old bbf.com, post Boozer injury, obviously.

Looks like I was being too conservative, as usual

I remember really feeling good about Noah. I probably thought that Carlos would have a bigger impact than he has.

But I didn't anticipate that Derrick would make this kind of jump.

And Thibs has surpassed my expectations, but not my hopes

 

I'd say you were highly skeptical that the bulls would win 50 and equally skeptical that Rose would take another leap forward.

And MikeDC is actually wrong about Miami being a in a good position financially. They're fucked. Whereas Bogans is potentially gone next year, Brewer the year after, and Korver the year after that, Miami is stuck with Joel Anthony, Mike Miller and Haslem for 3 years after this one and James Jones for 2 years. Plus, they gave up all of their available first round picks for the next 10 years (every other year). All they have is the MLE if it still exists, second round picks, and a first rounder every other year.

Contrast that with the Bulls who have all of their picks plus a potential lottery homerun from Charlotte, a solid young prospect in Asik, and expiring contracts over the next few years, plus the MLE. And the Bulls will only spend $4 million more per year after Rose signs a max deal in a couple of years for Rose/Deng/Boozer/Noah than Miami will spend for Wade/LBJ/Chrissy Bosh. And by the end of those deals it will be even closer. Miami has $71 mil in guaranteed contracts for only 6 players in 2013-2014. A new CBA with a hard cap essentially means they have to breakup their core.

 

Miami actually kept it's 2015 first rounder, so that is in play. But they gave up their 2017. So 2015 is the only first rounder they can move right now earlier than 2019.

 

I think this is almost all pretty far off base and mostly a sales job, but the oddest thing of all is that you simultaneously seem to say the Bulls will be spending more than the Heat but think the Heat will have to break up their core. By that logic, so will the Bulls.

This breaks down very simply. The Heat will keep adding MLE and LLE players. They've demonstrated they'll go the high salary route before and they will again. Their role players have been seriously hurt (picture where we'd be without Taj and Brewer or Korver). By the end of the year, my understanding is they'll have Haslem back, Miller will be back to full strength, and they'll probably add a couple of buyout bunnies like Troy Murphy. Come the off-season, they'll sign whatever big man will come at a discount for MLE or less to cash in on a title (Nene, KMart, Chandler, Przbilla, Oden, Landry, etc) and probably someone else to spare.

So they'll have an extremely solid (that's an understatement talking about a team featuring Wade and James both) 8 guys going into the playoffs for the forseeable future. That's a very good position to be in, and it's wishful thinking to believe otherwise.

 

Well... I don't think we're really that far apart then, it's just how we feel about it. I think the Heat and Celtics beat the Bulls, and maybe the Magic. You think the Heat and Celtics beat the Bulls too, if push comes to shove. Magic... ehh... I just don't like their players all that much.

But anyway, yeah... I don't see the serious holes on the Heat. At least when they're healthy (just like us). They're 5th in DRtg, which is a positive thing I didn't expect from them.

The Bulls have more depth, and more continuity coming into the year, so we weather injuries better and had less adjusting to do. But just because some dufuses on ESPN said it was gonna be a complete breeze for the Heat doesn't mean that they aren't doing really well and still trending upwards.

 

no....just no*

*unless Chris Wallace or I become GM of the Magic this off-season.

 

I feel better about the team now than I did at the beginning of the season. I didn't see all the major pieces meshing as well as they have.

However, I don't feel so differently about the team that standing pat and tinkering at the margin is now the best course of action (although I'm less confident of that assertion than I was at the beginning of the season).

For this year, I still think we're clearly below Miami and Boston as far as title aspirations go. I'm mum with how we compare with the West. I actually think the Lakers are pretty beatable, and I'm not sure the Spurs would be as tough of an opponent as their record would indicate.

If I had to bet, I'd say we have a 1/10 chance of winning it all this year. And probably similar odds in following years if the team stays the same.

I agree that Miami is a juggernaut. Having 3 top 20 players in their primes, on less than max contracts for 6 years is a real coup.

To people who don't think they'll have enough left over to fill in the cracks, I would say consider this:

The 04-05 Spurs won the championship with a supporting cast of Rasho Nesterovic, Nazr Mohammed, Bruce Bowen, a 34 year old Robert Horry, and an over-the-hill Brent Barry rounding out their rotation.

The Kobe/Shaq Lakers won their last title in 2001-2002 with Derek Fisher, Rick Fox, Devean George, Lindsey Hunter, and Samaki Walker(!) as their starting PF.

None of those guys have ever been more than bit role-players, and all the Heat need is to add 2 or 3 of those guys who will be happy to play a role and not fuck things up while the big 3 do their thing. I would bet money that the Heat will win at least 2 championships before Lebron and co. contracts expire.