Recent news is that the winner of Fitch/Penn is next in line for a welterweight title shot. If GSP defeats Shields he is expected to vacate the title and move up to middleweight. Supposing GSP wins and moves up, who would the winner of Fitch/Penn face for the vacant title? Thiago Alves (18-7) Coming off a win over John Howard but suffered two straight losses to Jon Fitch and Georges St. Pierre. Has won seven of nine. Has been defeated by Fitch twice. Has not faced Penn. Josh Koscheck (15-5) Coming off a loss to St. Pierre. 4-3 in his last seven fights. Will not fight Jon Fitch. Martin Kampmann (17-4) Has not faced Fitch or Penn. Has lost two of four. Has defeated Paulo Thiago and Carlos Condit--albeit both by decision. Carlos Condit (26-5) Has won 11 of 12. Has not faced Fitch or Penn. Was defeated by Kampmann via split decision. Just knocked out former top contender Dan Hardy. Dan Hardy (23-8) Coming off two straight losses to Condit and St. Pierre. Had won seven straight.
Kampmann is coming off a loss so that hurts him, hes got Diego Sanchez on March 3 though. Koscheck just lost as well and although hes certainly a top guy its just not the way the UFC works to give a guy a title shot coming off a loss. Alves is kind of in the same boat, was destroying the competition until he got GSP/Fitch but since those consecutive losses hes only beat John Howard by UD. Hardy coming off two losses is just out of the question and given that Condit is his most recent loss was to Condit that just further cements it. So yeah I'd give it to Condit who's coming off 3 consecutive wins; split decision over Jake Ellenberger, TKO against Rory MacDonald, and a KO against Dan Hardy. He really doesn't have the number of quality wins of many of the other guys listed but it seems like they're all coming off of some rough stretches where they all beat the piss out of one another (or got beat on by GSP/Fitch). The key to me is that I'm really in no rush to get those top contenders in there; once GSP is gone I think they'll all have plenty of opportunity to earn a shot, its just a matter of time. Condit may not be the best fighter of the bunch but the circumstances are in his favor, hes on a roll while the other guys have had some rougher stretches in their most recent fights and thats a big key to getting title shots. Over time they'll all get their shot and the WW division will even out, I think it'll be fun to see how it plays out once GSP leaves....well actually I'll fucking HATE it if/when Fitch is champ and makes every WW title fight 5 rounds of shit. Go BJ!
I think the real #2 guy (after GSP leaves) in the division is Kos but I think the next guy to get a shot is Condit, like BJM said, things are just working in his favour and if he can win his next fight the timing is pretty damn good for him to get it.
