What do people really think the chances are that Joel makes something close to a full recovery from his current knee problems?
Full recovery? I dont think anyone expects him to make a recovery after destroying his knee twice in such a short period of time. I certainly never expected him to be the same player he was. He's still effective, but I think he still needs a little more time to gain the confidence etc. to be as good as he can be.
I agree with BeerBoy...I don't think Joel will ever be the same player that he was before the injury, but I expect him to get better than he is right now and to be a serviceable backup center. That's assuming he wants to do it and is willing to put in the off-season work this summer that will be required to regain some of his leaping ability. Personally, if I had his money and was at that stage in my career, I think I'd hang it up while I can still walk and go and enjoy the rest of my life with my family.
I think he'll make a full recovery. I've torn my patellar tendon before. It's a very painful and long recovery, but you eventually get all the way back. I think Joel has the right mental attitude to stick with it and get all the way back. He was never a center known for athleticism anyway.
While I don't think Joel will ever be Joel as we knew him again, it is important to remember folks that people coming off this type of injury typically do not return to form until the year after a return. So I wouldn't read too much into how Joel is playing now. Joel is getting older now, too, and a lot of folks forget that.
I would be surprised if he retired. He will get at least another 1-2 million a year while he is 33, 34, 35. He is 5 years younger than Camby. No doubt this summer will be huge for him, but if there is a lock out he will have that much more time to get back in shape.
Given enough time he might someday get back to something like 80% of his old self (though the history of NBA players with this injury says that's unlikely). Unfortunately, given his age (31) how many years is that recovery going to take, and just what kind of player is an 80% 33-34 years old Joel?
