LaMarcus Aldridge the Next Tim Duncan?

at 30 years old, Pau is in his prime... as a side LA has had a lot of big games matched on him

The article that this thread is based on compares the Aldridge we've seen the last few months to Duncan as an offensive player. I fully agree he is not the rebounder or defender that TD has been throughout his career but I do think the offensive comparison seems to hold some merit. I grew up a Wake fan in Winston-Salem and have seen Tim's entire career. He's in the top 5 Bigs I've ever seen so any favorable comparison to him I'm making isn't done lightly. As a Trailblazer fan I'm hopeful that LA is able to continue to emulate TD's cold hearted assassin mentality in pressure situations. Though he's not bad I doubt LA will ever close the gap between them as a rebounder/defender, but he has been producing big time in the 4th and hitting shots in the clutch. Time will tell, but Blazer fans have good reason to be excited about what he's shown

STOMP

 

As always, BNM is concise and correct. Repped.

 

As great as Duncan is, and I consider him to be the greatest PF ever, he's only had two seasons where he averaged more than 22 ppg. (One season at 23 ppg, another at 25 ppg.) He's nowhere close to big men like Shaq or Malone or Nowitzki in the scoring department.

Of course, the beauty of Duncan's game is that he collapses defenses and is then smart/unselfish enough to give it up to the open man. So merely looking at scoring averages is dicey.

But that's also the way Aldridge has been playing. I think he is going to be a perennial 22-24 ppg scorer. Maybe more of a scorer than Duncan and less of a passer, but leaning much more toward Duncan than the Shaq/Malone/Dirk mold.

 

Thanks, I appreciate the kind words, but I think you forgot the green font. Me, always concise? Yeah, right.

BNM

 

Hoops World doen't know shit when it comes to the Blazers.

At least that's what people say when they post something negative. Why is it this should be any different?

 

I agree with Duncan as a stylistic comparison, both in terms of mien and play style. He's just not as talented, which is no slam on Aldridge. He does have a similar type of post game and he has really nice vision out of the post, ala Duncan. Like Duncan, he's a versatile and active defender, he's just not a "franchise defender" (the type of player who anchors a great team defense) like Duncan.

The main difference is that Duncan is a great rebounder and Aldridge is below average for the position.

 

I said it in another thread, but IMO the closest comparison of Aldridge is Rasheed if he would have given a shit and not had the case of the crazies.

 

Good post, Just two minor quibbles.

Aldridge is an above average offensive rebounder. He currently ranks 12th in the league in ORB%. Considering there are a total of 60 starting centers and power forwards in the league, being 12th best is definitely above average. He actually ranks higher in ORB% (10.5 vs. 10.1) than Tim Duncan.

He is an average defensive rebounder for a starting big man. He currently ranks 29th in DRB%. That puts him right in the middle of starting big men.

He ranks 25th in TRB%. So, that makes him very slightly above average (compared to all other players with at least 400 total rebounds). And, he's played 39 of his 56 games next to a starting center with a phenomenal 23.9% TRB% (highest in the league for anyone with over 400 rebounds). FWIW, LaMarcus (13.7 TRB%) is right behind Paul Millsap (13.8 TRB%) in TRB%, and most people consider Millsap a good rebounder. He also ranks ahead of Amare Stoudamire, Chris Bosh and David West in TRB%. His over all rebounding could be better, but LaMarcus Aldridge is slightly above average.

To complete the comparison, he's still way behind Tim Duncan (11th in TRB% = 18.5), who also happens to play next to the 8th best rebounder in the league, DeJuan Blair at TRB% = 19.2. No wonder San Antonio is so damn good. They completely control the glass. Damn, I wanted to draft both Blair and Millsap, and we passed on both multiple times.

In any case, prior to mid-December, you could have said the same think about Aldridge's low post scoring - that it ranks well behind Duncan's. He has shown tremendous improvement in that area in the past 3 months to where now he is being compared to Duncan - and no one is laughing. His passing has also improved signifiantly. Who's to say that with another off-season of work and conditioning, he won't come back next year as an even more complete player with improved defense and rebounding to match his improved low post game? He has proven that he's a hard worker and capable of great improvement and is still a couple years away from his peak. Of course, Duncan came into the league a very complete player, but if Aldridge's peak can approach Duncan's peak, the Blazers have a very special player on their hands - one they can build around.

I say keep Miller, keep Camby, see what Roy can give you off the bench, hope Oden can give you SOMETHING and add a few more proven role players and see how far you can go in the next two years.

BNM

 

Who are you willing to give up to get proven role players?

 

a real physical difference between the two is that Wallace had small hands... he could barely palm the ball. This hurt his low post game as defenders could poke the ball away relatively easily and also effected his ability to dunk. Thats why you almost never saw him dunk with one hand unless it was an allyoop. I've also heard this pointed to as part of why he was such a good outside shooter as guys who can hold it like a grapefruit tend to wrap their hands too much around the ball instead of centering their fingertips behind it's mass.

STOMP

 

Manute Bol and Sabas beg to differ.

 

Bol was a terrible outside shooter (21% from 3-point). Sabas did have a very nice 18-20' game, though, and he had gigantic hands. Wasn't terrible from 3, either.

 

I think part of the reason he doesn't have better D rebounds is because he leaks out for fast breaks once the ball is shot kinda like guards normally do.

 

there are exceptions to most every rule. Go back for a reread of what you're objecting to and you'll see the word "tend" used to qualify my statement about large hands negatively effecting outside shooting. A non-debatable absolute is that Sheed has much smaller hands then LA. It's possible that if Aldridge focused on it he might be able to become the deep threat that Wallace was, but he has a clear physical advantage on the low block with his bigger mitts allowing him better ball security.

STOMP

 

I know. I was mainly being a smartass

 

Mills, Rudy, Cunningham, Przybilla, Babbit and any of our Euro prospects (other than Freeland, I'd like to see the Blazers bring him over for next season) future draft picks, cash, whatever it takes – if the situation warrants it.

Hell, I'd even trade Batum for the right proven player. I love Batum's incredible potential. He looks so special at times, but them he disappears for games at a time. He's still young, but he's in his third season, all as a starter. So, it's not like he's inexperienced.

Of course, the situation would also have to be right. IF (and this is a whole lot of IF) the Blazers are in contention for one of the top two seeds in the west at this time next year, I'd consider them in "win now" mode. To get there, I think they'd need to keep their proven vets (Miller and Camby), get another great season from Aldridge, have a reasonably healthy and productive Oden and need Brandon Roy to be an effective 6th man.

Like I said, that's a lot of IF, but I don't think it's impossible. They're the 5th seed this year, and that's been without Oden, without Roy half the time and not terribly effective the other half, and missing Camby for over a month.

Oden was really starting to look great last year before the patella fracture. He was leading the league in TRB%, BLK% and FG% - and that's EXACTLY what you want from your big man, own the boards, own the paint, and score efficiently. He's shown he can come back from microfracture once. Can he do it again?

The key with Roy will be managing his pain. As a 6th man, he should see fewer minutes, and that alone will help. I'd limit his minutes per game to about 20 on average and try to never let him go over 24, consider giving him the 2nd night of back-to-backs off (like the Spurs did with Duncan two years ago when his knees were bothering him) and just monitor it from day-to-day. He did have some good games earlier in the year and he had some absolutely horrible ones, too. It's obvious he can still play - when he's not in pain. The key is managing that pain. The surgery he just had was to clean up the cartilage and remove the loose bits that were causing the inflammation. That should cut down on the swelling and pain. Roy will never again be a 40 MPG all-star, but with Wesley Matthews doing a capable job as the starter, I think Roy can be a very effective 6th man getting ~20 MPG, with an occasional game off to rest the knees. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

IF all these things come together, and the Blazers are one of the top teams in the west this time next year, I'd be looking to move Batum for a proven player, like Gerald Wallace, to make a push for a high seed and a push to the finals. Before this season started, I thought the Blazers could upset the Lakers this season and reach the finals. I thought they had the size, talent and depth to pull that off. But, that was back when I thought we'd have Oden back and before I knew about the severity of Roy's knee problems. Those were two huge blows to my expectations for this team, but Aldridge and Matthews have both stepped up and are performing better than I thought they would, and so is Andre Miller. Miller is an ageless wonder. At nearly 35, he's actually performing above his career averages in most advanced stats. And, prior to his injury, Camby was leading the league in TRB% at an even more advanced age. The pieces are there - if only they could all get on the court at the same time...

BNM

 

I don't know. I don't think Wallace is enough for a push for the Finals. I'm anxious to see where Batum's at in 3 years when he's Aldridge's current age and hitting his prime. I'm not sold that he's anywhere near a finished product. If there's ever been a Blazer prospect that I'm apprehensive about giving up, Batum takes the cake.