Does anybody have any data or stats that show what "too many minutes" means? Or are people just pretending they know what they are talking about and saying that "random number" is too much?
I didn't realize Bibby had fallen off so much. I had him on my fantasy team for the first few months this season, and he was producing.
When a player can't effectively perform in the 4th quarter because he is tired, he's played too many minutes. Track those observations over several weeks, and see what it averages out to. There's some good splits on this; I tend to sort the game log by minutes and see where most of the wins come in. EDIT: though to look at it, he's just fucking beasting at nearly any minute level. Looks like he hits the wall at 44 minutes; we're 4-6 when he plays 44 or more minutes a game. We're 15-6 when he plays 40-44 minutes. We're 8-5 when he plays 38-40 minutes. We're 6-8 when he plays less than 38 minutes. Looking at his GameScore rankings, we're 7-0 when he gets a GmSc of 30 or better, and in all those games he played between 41 and 44 minutes. So, his range for peak performance is 38-44 minutes a game. We are 23-11 in that range.
There might be a causation / correlation issue here. Is he playing less in the games we win because we have decent leads and he can afford to rest, or are we *really* better when he plays less than 44 minutes? I tend to think it is the former. His GmSc goes down when he plays over 44 minutes, compared to between 41 and 44 minutes?
The single stat won't solve this issue; I'd have to look at individual game logs for those high minute games. I'll offer up my hypothesis that his teammates can't support him, causing his rest times to shrink, causing additional fatigue and poor play late in the games... leading to losses. His GmScs for 44+ minute games are not in the Top7, that's for sure. He's played 10 games of 44+ minutes; one is in the Top 7, but its was 44:03 (3 seconds over 44 minutes), so it's literally the line. Anyway... Remember that his top 10 GmSc's are 28 and above. His median GmSc is 16.9. Here are the GmSc's from his most-minute games: 50:55 - 19.6 Win (DEN)* 48:33 - 28.1 Loss (LAL)* 46:21 - 20.4 Win (IND) 45:58 - 12.0 Loss (OKC)** 45:56 - 10.3 Win (SAC) 45:16 - 12.6 Loss (BOS)** 44:41 - 29.7 Loss (MIA)* 44:16 - 17.9 Loss (DAL) 44:14 - 11.6 Loss (BOS) 44:03 - 32.5 Win (MIL) *Overtime **Old LMA So, since Beast Mode, we're 4-4 when LMA is playing HYOOGE minutes. Counting only Beast Mode regulation games, we're 3-2. So maybe I was wrong above; maybe he's basically as good as he usually is when he plays a ton of minutes versus a lot of minutes...
Bump, just in case Aldridge is really hurt I can say I told you so. This has nothing to do with Nate, by the way. Not his fault we only have one legit post player
BUMP, just in case it is serious, even though it doesn't look serious, and then Mediocre Man can say I told you so. Oh, and it's not Nate's fault, but it still may be Nate's fault. It depends on if LMA is injured, or if he isn't injured. Either way, Nate may be at fault.
