OT: Detroit will not buyout Rip

You are correct.

Cases were made on both sides at the time as to why a buyout was rational at $15M and why it wasn't

I had my view and Mike had his which we both still have.

But the Pistons didn't enter the buyout talk. The Cavs did in a proposed trade.

The Pistons should though IMO. Better for them financially , better for their team from a basketball perspective in showing some leadership and control and better for the player ( although he doesn't think so and feels aggreived at $18M when he could likely latch on now and earn another say $10M over 3 seasons and finish his career more positively )

With where the Pistons and Hamilton are at its simply lose / lose

 

See the other thing that we do not know is whether the Pistons never tried to negotiate a buyout because they know this guy inside out and backwards and know he wouldn't take a realistic buyout ( as proven by knocking back $18M )

So why bother ?

What I am suggesting ( in total specualtion of course ) is that we can't 100% discount the possibility ( based on a premise of rationalism ) that the Pistons would not want to buy him out at an appropriate discount

 

A lot of things enter into this, but let me question a couple of your assumptions.

Is it really better for Rip Hamilton. As it stands, he's owed
+ $3.35M for the rest of this year.
+ $12.5M for next year.
+ $9M for the following year (2012-2013), in the likely event he's waived before 6/30/12 or whatever the exact date is.
+ whatever he makes as a FA during the 2012-2013 season. It seems reasonable to call that $3.5M, which is the difference between his buyout amount and his potential full salary.
So if he just sits on his ass and nothing changes, he gets to be a FA in 2012, and he gets $28.35M over the period.

Now, if he takes a $15M buyout, or even an $18M buyout, he gets that amount plus what?
+The best he could seem to do for the remainder of the year is whatever the pro-rated amount of $2.9M the Bulls offer him is gonna be. That's something like $775k, I think.
+ $18M.
+ Whatever he gets in a follow on contract next year and the year after. To break even, he has to get $12.6M (if it's a $15M buyout) or $9.6M (if it's an $18M buyout). That seems pretty optimistic to me when the value we're defaulting him at $3.5M. So let's say this summer he signs a 2yr $8M deal. In that case
+ He's probably gonna leave $1.6M on the table. He could go anywhere from leaving $1-5M on the table if he takes that kind of buyout. Which is a lot, considering it's probably gonna have to last him the rest of his life.

Also, if I'm his agent, I'd apprise him of several things
1. You know that new contract you're assuming you get? It's going to have to be negotiated under the new CBA, and that might dramatically cut your ability to recoup the money you give up on the buyout.
2. I've already made my commission on the contract you're on now. If I get to negotiate a new one for you, shave another 5% off for me. (I'm an honest guy).
3. There's a chance some team will trade for you as you get closer to the end of your contract.
4. There's a very good chance the Pistons will fire your clown of a coach, and perhaps you won't have to up and move at all. Perhaps they trade away Gordon and/or Stuckey, younger players who might fetch them more, and you can go back to how things were.
5. The new ownership might cut you a better deal.
6. One reason you should consider a buyout, however, is that if there's a long lockout, you get that buyout money. The odds of a pretty long lockout seem fairly small though.

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For the Pistons, financially, I don't know if they can make any sort of deal at all in the midst of a sale. Any move like this is really an ownership call unless it's a complete no brainer (like the Cavs trade was), and they don't have ownership. Were I advising the owners I'd say
1. There are a variety of ways this situation might be salvaged. Trade him for other players. Play him and trade the other guys.
2. Even if he agrees to a buyout at a steep discount, you have to hire replacement players, and it's not as easy as simply saying "I want two guys for $5M each (total) for two years." In a trade, you might be able to manage, but free agents generally want to sign for longer deals. And ideally, we could get ok role players and some savings to boot. It's not a sunk cost until you agree to the buyout.
3. If you buy him out now you have to pay him. On the off chance there's a long lockout, you may well not have to pay him much next year anyway. And the new CBA may offer different ways of dealing with this issue than what we've got now.

Bottom line is there are a lot of reasons for both sides not to do a buyout. Hamilton shouldn't be willing to give up a significant chunk of his last payday, and the Pistons should be looking for better ways of turning that currently unproductive expenditure into a more productive one. A buyout, at this point, locks it into to unproductive.

 

All fair points Mike.

I simply believe that :

A) Rip can make at least $10M with a team like the Bulls over the next 3 seasons where he's locked in to a team for a further 2.5 - so he takes a $7M to $10M discount and makes it back if comfort is established in back channel enquiry etc

B ) Regardless of Keister ....I think Rip has burned his bridges and whenever the ownership situation settles you simply cannot cede this type of control to players in what they think they can do and get away with. Its a basic management move to kill both protagonists and get bloody to get some traction back.

C ) No team is trading for Rip even for what would amount to be approx $5M in the final year of his contract 2 years from now ( if he wasn't waived ) - in this scenario he actually has negative trade value IMO . Hence a signficant reason as to why its not worth to retain in the hope of salvaging value on the trade market and adopt a "first loss / best loss" mentality now given the situation

D ) 2 years is a helluva long time for both parties to remain toxic...and from a player's point of view if the line has been crosssed ( and it has IMO ) if you stay to get pay...I don't think you make it back as a player

E ) Rip and his agent therefore have to be pragmatic to some degree and acknowledge some responsibility and rehabilitate quickly with an organisation that has need and regard . Logically, you could see the Bulls giving Rip a 3 year 10 year deal after this season- which if he is brought in for $2M now after being bought out for $18M say would see him largely see him square . Personally , I still think $15M is the figure as he should lose something to break free from partial responsibility of what he created to try and move forward in a more positive manner

 

Ken Berger from CBS Sports is reporting that a proposal is being put to the board to buyout Rip but chances are "slim"

The point is , if the source/story is correct , is that the Pistons are open to the idea when it was suggested such a move didn't make sense

Given Rip balked at $18M ( incredibly stupid IMO ) I won't be holding my breath