I meant the year after taking the Q.O., which would be "as fast as he can" get out of PDX on his own terms.
Yes. The Blazers have to offer it to retain his RFA rights for this summer. It's roughly $8.2 million for next year's Oden contract. That said, once it is offered, Oden has two choices. 1) Decline the Q.O., and become a restricted free agent this summer, meaning the Blazers can match any offer. 2) Accept the Q.O., and play next season on a one-year/$8.2 million contract, and become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2012. The kicker in all of this is that Portland must offer the Q.O. under the current labor agreement, but that agreement expires prior to free agency, meaning there would be a lock-out. If Oden accepts the Q.O., and next season is mostly lost, then he is still an unrestricted free agent in 2012.
What was shown really doesn't communicate what Oden feels about people of lesser status. If anything, it communicates that he wasn't into that interview. I've seen him do interviews where he's a perfectly nice, cool guy. I don't see it as anything other than typically human to sometimes not be at one's best. Well, personally, I hope someone does that, to be honest. My real fear is Oden taking the QO, playing out one season and then leaving as an unrestricted free agent. I don't think any team will offer him a max deal, obviously, so even a $10-12 million/year deal I'd want Portland to match. Well, depending on how CBA negotiations go. Let me say, under the current rules, I'd want Portland to keep Oden around even on a fairly large deal...because he's undeniably extremely talented and I'd gamble on the health. Under a hard cap....maybe not.
I guess I can't imagine someone with his injury history accepting a QO that only guarantees him 1 year of salary. Especially when you know you can do better than that on the open market. Seems like a huge financial risk just to be able to get out of Portland.
If I was 23 and had been asked the same questions for four years I'd probably make a Q&A pamphlet and hand it out, then "no comment" any poorly disguised repeat questions.
What's the guarantee that he's offered anything more than the MLE for 3 years this summer? Many teams are literally operating in the red, and somebody with cap space is going to spend $30 million on a guy that will have played 20% of his available games over five seasons? That's if there is even a free agency period prior to the 20011-12 season, whatever there may be of it. I wonder why Oden wouldn't accept the Q.O., when you look at the teams with cap space, and with the labor situation being so uncertain.
Derailing a bit...but I have a 170 pound dog and I've considered making a card with the answers to the questions I get asked about him 5 times a day --> (170 pounds, yes he eats a lot, yes he drools, yes he sheds a lot, etc) Sounds like a good idea for Oden --> (No timeline, trying not too bulk up too much, cardio, pool work, tough to watch the guys play).
That is meaningless. There have been many players who have not dealt with the media well and have kicked total ass on the NBA court.
This is a tangential question, but remember the rumors that Oden was originally hurt playing DanceDance Revolution at Players? Would that matter to anyone? For me, it would not matter if he got injured doing that, or if it happened grabbing a rebound. Just wanted to get that off of my chest. I think that whole DDR thing was way overblown, even if there was a kernel of truth to it.
Somewhere in the $5.8 million - $6 million range, most likely for next summer (if there is an NBA summer).
That is an interesting dichotomy; if a lot of teams are at/above the salary cap, an MLE is all they can offer an unrestricted free agent anyway. Also, there's rumors that these exceptions would be reduced or removed in a new CBA, giving Oden even fewer options in the UFA market. Does he take 8.2 million guaranteed and the hope that some team other than Portland will offer more than the MLE minimum, or does he take a 3-year MLE deal and wait until he has an opportunity to up his value for the next round of FA negotiations in 3 years' time? It seems to me like six of one, half a dozen of the other. One option is high risk/high reward while the other is less risky but potentially less rewarding.
$18 Million > $8 Million If I'm his financial advisor I'm telling him to lock in for 3 years if he can. The Cap uncertainty certainly throws a wrench into stuff...as long as we have Paul Allen I'm hoping for no hard cap
Well, that contract may not even be available. Plus, with more injury filled seasons, that might be his last contract. His mental health also needs to be considered. Is he happy in Portland? Does he want to stay here for another 3-5 years? Only Greg knows if more money is worth that to him. We'll find out sometime after the season.
8mil+18mil > 18mil alone. That's the balancing factor here. He can get an MLE deal as a UFA, and still bank the QO. But as an RFA, he can potentially get more than 18 mil in 3 years' time. I, as a fan of our billionaire owner, want a soft cap as well
That assumes no career ending injury. It's just such a huge risk financially for him to not take extra years... I guess time will tell. Also there is a chance he could get a little cake to eat too right? It's not out of the question that someone below the cap would offer more than the MLE. Risky for sure but maybe a team takes THAT risk/reward scenario. This is why Cho makes the big bucks...heh.
If Stern reaches his goal - a 30% reduction in payrolls - it would be suicidal to gamble that much on Oden. In a few years, I would guess that only the top 10-15 players in the league can command a $10 million salary.
