They say that perception is reality and on the Chicago sports scene, there may not be a better example of this than Bulls’ small forward Luol Deng. Deng is currently the second-leading scorer (behind MVP front-runner Derrick Rose) on a Bulls team that improbably is leading the NBA Eastern Conference by 2 games. He leads the team in minutes played (3rd in the NBA). Bulls’ Head Coach Tom Thibodeau speaking of Deng says, “He's our glue. He keeps us together.” Thibodeau, an acknowledged defensive savant, also praises Deng as “an all-league defender.” The media and fans have happily joined in on the Deng Lovefest. An angle that many NBA writers and analysts have taken to help explain the surprising success of the Bulls is Deng’s sudden emergence as one of the better all-around players in the league. Fans are heaping praise on Deng’s “new game” that (finally) features solid 3-point range and are touting him for NBA All-Defensive Team honors. It hasn’t always been so good to be Luol Deng. After signing a 6-year $80million contract during the summer of 2008, Deng has probably been the team’s least popular player. He’s been labeled as overpaid, soft, unathletic, injury-prone and weak-willed. Fans and media complained about his lack of range, inability to create his own shot and that he “disappears at crunch time.” Some of the cruder Bulls’ fans began referring to him as “Dung” (delighted no doubt by their rapier-like wit). Nearly everyone in Bulls’ Nation wanted to see him traded and a bag of balls was often mentioned as all they wanted in return. This continued into this season when fans/media lamented that the Bulls couldn’t swing a deal with the Denver Nuggets for superstar small forward Carmelo Anthony principally because the Nuggets had no interest in Deng and his “horrible” contract. While he’s never been my favorite Bulls’ player, I’ve always been a Deng fan probably because I weigh defensive performance more heavily than most and appreciate the completeness of Deng’s game. The big contract he signed didn’t bother me like it did others since 23 year old (at the time he signed his current contract) players of his caliber aren’t very easy to acquire. As a “Deng Defender,” I have to tell you that it’s been a long and lonely past couple years. So why all the sudden affection? Well, there are a couple good reasons and one pretty misguided one. The most obvious good reason lies in the team’s unexpected success. The NBA East was supposed to be owned this season by the Lebron-Wade-Bosh led Miami Heat, with many predicting that they would seriously challenge the ’95-’96 Bulls record 72 wins. The Celtics and Orlando Magic would be the only two teams in the conference with a chance of seriously competing with the Heat. The Bulls were picked 5th or 6th by most. Yet with only a few weeks remaining in the season, there sit the Bulls atop the Eastern Conference standings by 2 full games over Boston and 2.5 ahead of the unbeatable Heat (who the Bulls swept this season, 3-0). Taking nothing away from Derrick Rose’s rise to superstardom this season, the chief reason the Bulls are where they are is because of their defense. Depending on the team statistics you use, the Bulls defense has been #1 or #2 in the league for most of the season and Deng is universally acknowledged as their best defensive player. A rising tide lifts all boats and Deng and his teammates are all riding high right now. The other sound reason for Deng’s resurrection is that he’s been healthy. In fact, he’s the only Bull to start all 71 games this season. The media/fan criticism that he is “soft” and won’t play hurt is a particularly sore point with Deng. The truth is that he has a pretty remarkable history of playing with pain, including a stress fracture in 2009 (this was the first season of his new contract and though he tried to play through this injury, he had his worst statistical season and missed nearly half the team’s games and the playoffs), a broken thumb last season and a painful thigh injury a couple weeks ago. Still, his 71 so far games this season is the 3rd-highest in his 7-year NBA career. However, the reason given by most of the reformed Deng-haters is Deng is simply playing much, much better than he ever has…he was bad enough to hate and now he’s good enough to love (or at least like). As I see it, this is pretty much a simple matter of justifying what I always felt was mostly misguided and misplaced criticism of Deng. While it’s true that Deng has added the 3-point shot to his offensive arsenal this season, statistically at least, he’s pretty much performing as he always has. In fact, if the Bulls weren’t doing so well, I have little doubt that all those oh so clever “Dungsters” would say he was having another down season and dragging the team down with him. In any case, let’s take a look at Deng’s “breakthrough” current season versus his career numbers (career numbers in parentheses) on a per 36-minute basis: Points – 16.4 (16.6) Rebounds – 5.3 (6.6) Assists – 2.5 (2.3) Blocks – 0.5 (0.6) Steals – 0.9 (1.0) Turnovers – 1.8 (1.8) Field Goal % - 45.9% (47.1%) 3-point % - 34.6% (32.6%) True Shooting - 55.0% (53.2%) Player Efficiency Rating – 15.8 (16.3) See what I mean? And it’s not as if Deng has suddenly become a good defensive player. Pretty much all of his head coaches have consistently praised him for his work on that end of the floor. In the end, Luol Deng is very good at the game of basketball. He’s smart, works hard and is a great teammate. Players who have played on his teams and coaches who have coached him have known this all along. Still, if the former haters want to claim that Deng has suddenly morphed into a very good player, I’m OK with it…I’ve always celebrated when perception catches up with reality. This said, I hope you’ll understand why, when someone in the bar claims that Deng ought to win the “Most Improved Player” award this season, it’s all I can do not to laugh out loud. Tom Nossem
I've never been a Deng "hater" - I just thought he's not a #1 or #2 option on offense, nor has he been a top 10 SF in the league. The CBA turns players into jigsaw puzzle pieces that have to fit a certain way to build a roster or facilitate trades. It sure looks like the Bulls tried to get rid of him and his salary over the summer to gain the cap space to sign what management felt was a better player. You wrote an article about advanced statistics, so I look at those and see: Deng has a 15.8 PER He is 5th on the team in WS/48 (Korver is 4th) He is 5th on the team in ORtg He's 11th on the team in DRtg (surprising since he's a defensive stud) He's averaging near 18 PPG, which is good, but 16.4 per 36, and he has the 4th best PER of his career, is having his worst year rebounding of his career, his 4th best year scoring, etc. While this post may seem negative, it's meant to be a realistic view of the guy. Disregarding the statistics, which should be a sort of objective measure, he's been a consistently good player and he's clearly a valuable piece in the Bulls SCHEME of doing things with Thibs as coach. He always gets the toughest assignment on defense. With the aging of other SFs around the league who were better than he's been, he is left standing as one of the better SFs going forward. Looking at the rest of the league, LeBron, Melo, Durant, and Pierce are the elite SFs and the dropoff from them to the rest is significant.
Denny, I hope you got the main point of the article which is that, while Deng is not having a career year, he has gone from an object of ridicule to a beloved figure (not by you obviously, but many fans). With all due respect, these are silly stats if you watch the games (and I know you do so you know they're silly). Noah leads the team in WS/48...Noah's my favorite player, but c'mon. Rose and Deng are tied for 4th in ORtg...both behind Bogans...you can't be serious. Drtg still has James Johnson as best on the team...'nuf said. I stand by the article. Deng's a very good player and other than the year after he signed his contract (and was injured most of the season) always has been. The hate he's received is unjustified and the sudden respect he's now getting, while misguided as to the why, is merited.
Deng has been very, very solid. The fact that he has been healthy and played all of the games so far has been one of the reasons that we have the #1 seed. Some Bulls fans on other Bulls boards wanted to start James Johnson over Deng to start the season.
I liked your article, but I take exception to a couple of points you raised, is all. Specifically: "However, the reason given by most of the reformed Deng-haters is Deng is simply playing much, much better than he ever has" He's having a good scoring season, but he played much better in the Skiles years when he was healthy. You even back off this "much better than he ever has" with this part: "While it’s true that Deng has added the 3-point shot to his offensive arsenal this season, statistically at least, he’s pretty much performing as he always has." And I don't see he's statistically performing as he always has is true; maybe he's performing statistically like he did as a rookie? He clearly had better seasons in 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2009-10. The ORtg and DRtg make a lot of sense if you consider the lineups and minutes. Bogans plays his minutes exclusively with the best offensive players on the team. That's not to say he fits extremely well with the team as it's made up right now.
Man, you're the "anti-audience" for my article and are completely missing my point. The Deng is simply playing much, much better than he ever has" is not my opinion, but rather that of the former Deng-haters...so you're disagreing with what I attribute to the former Deng-haters believe...so we agree. If you feel that Deng is actually performing at a lower level than he has in past years, then you are in agreement with the jist of the article...again, the point is that most Bulls fans seem to believe that Deng is now playing at a higher level and I DON'T. Sorry, but your use of the stats (ORtg, etc) remains silly and your attempt to try to justify them is also silly.
Well, I think it may be true that some people are willing to accept Deng as he is because the team is winning. I can imagine us having worse players at the position if we did give him up for cap space, but I also imagine we'd be pretty darned good with Pau Gasol or someone of his caliber.
I don't know if you've seen this: http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=1120 Skill Curves: Since 100% of team possessions must be used by the offense at all times -- and there is an inverse relationship between %Poss & ORtg -- there is a lot of "extra" offensive value (beyond a player's ORtg, that is) in simply creating shots and using those possessions. This is the idea behind what Dean Oliver called "skill curves" in Basketball on Paper... Basically, as a player's role in the offense increases, his efficiency will go down because he's having to take shots of increasing difficulty; at the same time, he's boosting his teammates' ORtgs because they don't have to take those tough shots anymore. This is why someone like Michael Jordan was so valuable -- he was able to maintain an ORtg of 120-125 even while assuming 30-35% of the Bulls' possessions when on the court, which in turn diverted defensive attention away from his teammates and created easier chances for them as well. So here are some rules of thumb: Players who have both a high ORtg (>110) and a high %Poss (>23) are offensive stars; players with a high ORtg and a low %Poss (<17) are good role players who may be able to take on more possessions and still maintain a reasonable efficiency level; players who have a low ORtg (<104) and a high %Poss are probably not suited well for their role and need to shoot less; finally, players with low marks in both categories are either defensive specialists or scrubs.
Well written article. Deng is a great glue player. A heavy minutes role player on a great team playing alongside a MVP and two borderline all-stars. He's getting paid like he's more than that. In the past, the expectations on him were to be more than that. Winning erases the stink of Deng's contract. PLaying alongside MVPs and all-stars erases expectations on Deng to be more than a role player. Let's hope tough decisions don't have to be made in the future because of that contract. Main improvements for Deng this year? 1.) Health 2.) 3 point shot 3.) Can sit back an be a role player and take a back seat to MVPs and all-stars. He's a Robert Horry type, IMO.
Tom, the first similar thread that comes up was started by MikeDC saying, "Luol Deng needs to be traded." I hear everything that K4E and Denny are saying. Lu does nothing extraordinarily well. And he's paid more than he should be and his contract might cost us someone we could use later on. But he's been very important to the team's success this year, and he's found a way to work together with D Rose, which was a question the first two years. There was a hope that he would be the one to benefit the most, but it was a real struggle. This year, there's been a confluence of things that have worked to change that dynamic. First and most important is his health and prep time over the summer. Second is the coaching change and "thinking man's" system. Third is Luol's work on his three. Fourth is his work on ball handling. He's significantly better at being able to maintain his dribble. And Derrick has learned to count on him and how to feed him. To me, Luol's increased value to the team is directly tied to how well he's been able to cohere with Derrick as a unit.
Good thoughts as usual, Good Hope. As you know, while what I wrote shows here as a post, it's actually an article based on my observations of how the perceptions about Deng have changed this season. A lot of this comes from what I see posted on RealGM, but it's also based on what I read, hear on sports talk radio and what fan friends are saying. I'm confident that if they ran "approval rating" polls (like they do for politicians) for basketball players, Deng's approval rating would have gone from about 15% to over 80% in a matter of a few months. This despite the fact that statistically, he's having an average season at best. I found this phenomenon interesting so I wrote about it. The feedback here has reminded me that this is a very different fan community. Put simply, it's a very tough crowd and one not readily swayed by the media...windsocks need not apply. To be clear, I don't find this to be a bad thing. When I first started writing for sportstwo, I said that I'm not writing for this Bulls board, but rather for the more casual fan. As a result, I purposely simplify and sometimes exaggerate points to make the article more readable and entertaining. However, the way the system works here, all articles have to start out as a forum post, so when I write a Bulls column, you guys get subjected to it.
I'm not sure anyone is a Deng "hater." You use that word/term a few times in the article. The issues that people raise about him all seem well grounded to me - missed a lot of games, overpaid, unable to step up and be THE man (before Rose), etc. I've always tried to take a realistic view of things and not sip the kool-aid. Sipping kool-aid is the Blazers fans telling me that Batum is better than Deng! K4E's post is pretty spot on, to me. Deng does a lot of things well, and that's a positive. The things he doesn't absolutely keep him from being a top-tier SF (or F). Ever watch him on the fast break? His handles are awful. He's unable to take his man off the dribble any time he chooses, like those I mentioned as top-tier. There was a time, even last season, where he'd clap his hands to get everyone's attention - "Give me the ball, I'm to score!" That IS Melo's game, but not Deng's. His salary and desire to trade him is entirely based on the CBA. You mentioned trading him for a bag of balls (or something like that), which is just a way of saying "the cap space after such a deal would put us in position to do better." Like I wrote earlier, flaws and all, I'm not sure who we could get to replace him that's better (LeBron would have been, had we signed him). Though a realist might look at the games where he was hurt and John Salmons replaced him and was better than Deng ever was. Hate? That's a strong word.
Prolly not anyone on this board, but there were some definite "Deng haters" in the bulls fanbase. One of my friends was a definite one, but he now has stated that with Lu's play, he doesnt hate him anymore. So I definitely get wat he was saying and i agree because ive seen it first hand.
Honestly Denny, I think you may be making the mistake of thinking you're representative of most fans. You're not, and based on my previous experience posting with you, you never have been. This is not meant as a criticism. My use of the word "hate" isn't the meaning given to it by our generation, that is, I don't mean hatred that consumes and could lead to violence. The new common use of "hate," "hater," or if you prefer, "hatah," by the younger generation has a much less intense connotation. if you good-naturedly bust someone's balls, they may say, "Hey! Don't be a hater!" Then everyone laughs. This softer, more modern meaning is how I used "Deng-haters" and coming into this season, the majority of Bulls' fans were Deng-haters. The fact that most of these folks now like him is further evidence of the softened meaning of the word hate. I'll respond to your Deng the player comments in a separate post.
The ironic thing is I would love to see the Bulls have a salary structure where they pay their #3 or #4 option $12M in salary and pay their 6th man something similar as well. That the team has made the stink about not paying several of their good and young players (less than MAX!) fair contracts puts Deng in the spotlight more than he probably deserves. The Lakers won championships with Kobe making over $20M, Gasol at MAX, Bynum at $12M, and Odom on a big contract. Over the LT, yep. Multiple championships, yep. Hugely profitable, yep! High team valuation (#1, actually), yep! And the team is the owner's main business (not a toy to throw money at, even if it's a losing proposition). Lakers had $31M in annual profits while the Bulls had $60M. The $60M vs. $31M is a win, but only for Reinsdorf's bank account. The $31M vs. $60M and multiple championships is a win for Buss's bank account and for the fans.
We agree on many points about Deng's abilities, but disagree on the overall and comparative assessment. I believe that you, like many Deng-detractors (like that better?) focus on what he's not good at. I agree that he's a terrible fit as "the man" since he has a weak one-on-one game. Fortunately, the Bulls now have a truly superb man, so we don't need Deng for this. Is he a top-10 SF? I think he is easily. I pretty much agree with Kelly Dwyer's preseason ranking of him at #8. Link Coaches and players have always thought more highly of Deng than fans and media. Many criticize his handle and passing, but somehow Deng consistently has a very low turnover percentage while scoring his 18ppg. I attribute this to the fact that Deng often ain't a "pretty" player. You (and probably most other fans) think Deng is seriously ("grossly?") overpaid. I don't. If there's a range of fairness, his $11.3MM this season is within that range. Yes, since I watch virtually evey Bulls' game, I've watched Deng on fast breaks. I think he runs the floor beautifully. Yes, I wish he could finish more forcefully (athletically), but he finishes well. I concede that he's not a great guy to lead the break, but few big SFs are. Yup, he's had more than his share of injuries. Injury-prone? I don't know if it's a pre-disposition or just some bad luck. He's shown that he'll try to play with pain and I admire him for it. I find it ironic that a guy that many fans have referred to as "soft" is also referred to as the team's "Iron Man." I think Deng is a terrific defensive player. I also think that there are no statistics that come remotely close to adequately measuring a defensive players' contributions. It's all about your eyeballs and knowledge of the game. NBA coaches and opposing players have a ton of respect for Deng as a defender. My eyeballs and knowledge of the game agree with them. My feelings about Deng haven't changed much over the years. He's a good, not great, player. He's not All Star caliber, but I'm very glad the Bulls have him.
