Not including favorites to win any games we have the following % to finish as each seed: 5-6% 6-29% 7-35% 8-29% The good thing is we control our own destiny and just need to win out to finish 6 or better, the bad thing is we might not want to win out!!! Need OKC to lose, unless Denver loses
Absolutely! Why not? If our goal is to reach the finals; I suspect we have to face the Lakers sometime. The sooner we face them, the better for us. I mean if the Lakers have two playoff series over with; they will gain more and more confidence. I also think game one in the first playoff game for the Lakers will be the easiest game to win. The Lakers have the toughest time winning in Portland. We need one game in L.A. and I think game one in the first round would be the best chance to beat them.
As of RIGHT NOW!!!!!!! Here’s an update after Denver beat Golden St. and Dallas beat Houston tonight. The odds of playing San Antonio have diminished, while the rest is still about as muddy as this morning. PORTLAND WINS BOTH – 6 PORTLAND SPLITS (BEATS MEM), NO WINS AT DAL – 6 PORTLAND SPLITS (BEATS MEM), NO LOSES AT DAL – 6 PORTLAND SPLITS (LOSES TO MEM), MEM SPLITS, NO WINS AT DAL – 6 PORTLAND SPLITS (LOSES TO MEM), MEM SPLITS, NO LOSES AT DAL – 6 PORTLAND SPLITS (LOSES TO MEM), MEM WINS OUT, NO WINS AT DAL – 7 PORTLAND SPLITS (LOSES TO MEM), MEM WINS OUT, NO LOSES AT DAL – 7 PORTLAND LOSES BOTH, MEM WINS OUT, NO LOSES AT DAL – 7 PORTLAND LOSES BOTH, MEM LOSES TO LAC, NO LOSES AT DAL – 7 PORTLAND LOSES BOTH, MEM WINS OUT, NO WINS AT DAL – 8 PORTLAND LOSES BOTH, MEM LOSES TO LAC, NO WINS AT DAL – 8 *The No. 5 seed is no longer in play after Denver’s win over Golden St. tonight *If Portland beats Memphis Tuesday, it clinches the No. 6 seed *The only way Portland plays San Antonio is to lose both games and New Orleans wins its final game at Dallas *Oklahoma City holds the tiebreaker over Dallas *Los Angeles holds the tiebreaker over Oklahoma City *Los Angeles holds the tiebreaker over Dallas
Updated: Not including favorites to win any games we have the following % to finish as each seed: 5-0% 6-45% 7-36% 8-18%
Hollinger........via EWT..... I love hollinger: 2-3-4 in West will go to final day, regardless of LA-SA result. Of 16 scenarios, LA gets No. 2 in 8 of them, Dallas in 7, OKC in just 1. Of 128 scenarios, OKC-Den is most common pairing (88); only one that's in more than half. LA's most common opponent is Portland (48). Spurs-Blazers now very unlikely; Portland would have to drop final two and have Hornets beat Dallas. Blazers looking at Lakers or Mavs. Also, strategic tanking for Portland and Memphis likely a non-factor unless Lakers beat Spurs and Dallas loses early game on Wed. Tomorrow's games will take 96 outcomes off the table, so I'll have more then. One obvious thing I left out: Blazers are your No. 6 seed with a win tomorrow.
I made a table with all 128 scenarios, there are 7 games that have possible playoff implications. So there are 2^7 (2 to the power of 7) or 128 unique scenario’s. This will be reduced to 32 scenario’s after tonight’s games or 16 if the Blazers win. Summarizing all 128 possible scenarios gives us 21 possible playoff brackets with the percentage of likelihood assuming each game is 50/50 as follows: SAS-LAL-DAL-OKC-DEN-POR-NO-MEM 14.8% SAS-DAL-LAL-OKC-DEN-MEM-POR-NO 12.5% SAS-DAL-LAL-OKC-DEN-POR-MEM-NO 11.7% SAS-DAL-LAL-OKC-DEN-POR-NO-MEM 11.7% SAS-LAL-OKC-DAL-DEN-POR-NO-MEM 10.9% SAS-LAL-DAL-OKC-DEN-MEM-POR-NO 7.0% SAS-LAL-DAL-OKC-DEN-POR-MEM-NO 4.7% SAS-OKC-DAL-LAL-DEN-POR-NO-MEM 3.9% SAS-LAL-OKC-DAL-DEN-MEM-POR-NO 3.1% SAS-DAL-OKC-LAL-DEN-MEM-POR-NO 2.3% SAS-DAL-OKC-LAL-DEN-POR-MEM-NO 2.3% SAS-LAL-DAL-OKC-DEN-MEM-NO-POR 2.3% SAS-LAL-DAL-OKC-DEN-NO-MEM-POR 2.3% SAS-LAL-OKC-DAL-DEN-MEM-NO-POR 2.3% SAS-LAL-OKC-DAL-DEN-NO-MEM-POR 2.3% SAS-DAL-OKC-LAL-DEN-POR-NO-MEM 1.6% SAS-DAL-LAL-OKC-DEN-MEM-NO-POR 0.8% SAS-DAL-LAL-OKC-DEN-NO-MEM-POR 0.8% SAS-OKC-DAL-LAL-DEN-MEM-NO-POR 0.8% SAS-OKC-DAL-LAL-DEN-MEM-POR-NO 0.8% SAS-OKC-DAL-LAL-DEN-NO-MEM-POR 0.8% The Blazers chance of each seed is 6 61.7% 7 25.8% 8 12.5% The Blazers chance of playing these opponent is: DAL 38.3% LAL 33.6% OKC 15.6% SAS 12.5%
Great work! It's different from what I posted. Mine is from the NBA, you are obviously good at math. Don't know which one to believe, but whichever one is right, it's a clusterfuck!
Yeah maybe they give the home team a better chance to win or something I dunno. If you assume games are 50/50 then our chance of finishing as the 8th seed can only happen with two losses and a NO win which would be 50% x 50% x 50% or 12.5%; whereas you're post had it as 18% so I don't know how they would have got that number.
All I know is that I've filled in two slots on the Western Conference Prediction Game and NO ONE got either correct! Guys & gals, hope someone got some seed right or I get the prize!
Just got this sent to me........ 2011 NBA Playoff Scenarios (Updated through Games of Monday, April 11, 2011) WESTERN CONFERENCE 1. SAN ANTONIO SPURS 2. Dallas, LA Lakers or Oklahoma City 3. LA Lakers, Dallas or Oklahoma City 4. Oklahoma City, Dallas or LA Lakers 5. DENVER NUGGETS 6. Portland, Memphis or New Orleans 7. Memphis, New Orleans or Portland 8. New Orleans, Memphis or Portland Tonight’s Clinch Scenario: WESTERN Portland clinches #6 seed if Blazers win. WESTERN Dallas will be seeded: #2 if Mavericks win and Lakers lose at least one game OR if Lakers lose both games and Thunder lose. #3 if Lakers win both games and Mavericks win OR if Lakers win at least one game and Thunder lose one game OR if Lakers lose both games and Thunder wins. #4 if Lakers win at least one game, Thunder wins and Mavericks lose. LA Lakers will be seeded: #2 if Lakers win both games OR if Lakers win one game and Mavericks lose. #3 if Lakers lose one game and Mavericks win OR if Lakers lose both games and Thunder loses. #4 if Lakers lose both games and Thunder wins Oklahoma City will be seeded: #2 if Thunder wins, Lakers lose both games and Mavericks lose. #3 if Lakers win at least one game, Thunder wins and Mavericks lose OR if Lakers lose both games, Thunder wins and Mavericks win. #4 if Thunder loses OR if Lakers win at least one game and Mavericks win. Portland will be seeded: #6 if Blazers beat Grizzlies OR if Blazers beat Warriors and Grizzlies lose to Clippers. #7 if Blazers lose to Grizzlies but beat Warriors and Grizzlies beat Clippers OR if Grizzlies win both games and Hornets lose. #8 if Blazers lose both games and Hornets win. Memphis will be seeded: #6 if Grizzlies win both games OR if Blazers lose both games and Hornets lose. #7 if Grizzlies lose to Blazers and beat Clippers and Hornets lose OR Grizzlies beat Blazers and lose to Clippers, Hornets win and Blazers lose OR Grizzlies beat Blazers and lose to Clippers, Hornets lose and Blazers win. #8 if Grizzlies lose both games OR if Grizzlies lose to Blazers and Hornets win OR if Grizzlies beat Blazers and lose to Clippers and Hornets and Blazers win. New Orleans will be seeded: #6 if Hornets win, Blazers lose both games and Grizzlies lose to Clippers. #7 if Hornets win and Blazers beat Grizzlies OR if Grizzlies lose both games OR if Hornets win and Grizzlies win both games and Blazers lose to Warriors OR if Hornets win, Blazers lose to Grizzlies and beat Warriors and Grizzlies lose to Clippers. #8 if Hornets lose and Grizzlies beat Blazers OR if Grizzlies win both games and Blazers beat Warriors OR if Hornets lose, Blazers beat Grizzlies and Grizzlies beat Clippers.
