Will we make it out of the 1st round? ESPN says...........

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by THE HCP, Apr 12, 2011.

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  1. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    THE HCP, Apr 12, 2011
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  2. tlongII

    tlongII Legendary Poster

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    They say "only if we play Dallas."
     
    tlongII, Apr 12, 2011
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  3. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    I agree with them.
     
    THE HCP, Apr 12, 2011
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  4. Shooter

    Shooter Unanimously Great

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    These are the same "experts" who thought the Lakers would beat us Friday night.
     
    Shooter, Apr 12, 2011
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  5. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    Haberstroh says no (with conditions), but he's also been following the Heat around all year and thinks that Coach Popovich's first name is Kevin. (See Question One at the link)
     
    BrianFromWA, Apr 12, 2011
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  6. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    I think it's funny that the KnickerBlogger uses full-season point differential to dismiss our chances, while not noting the fact that we added an All-Star midseason. Then again, he might see two Blazers games a year, so I guess I should give him some slack.
     
    BrianFromWA, Apr 12, 2011
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  7. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Yeah, I get the whole point differential correlation to winning, but this isn't the Tour de France. Every game starts over at 0-0. If you lose game 1 by 20 and then win game 2 by 1, you have a point differential of -9.5 per game, but the series is tied 1-1. If you then win game 3 by 1 point, you have a -6.0 point differential, but are leading the series 2-1.

    Someone should ask KnickerBlogger who had the better point differential in the 1960 World Series. For those not familiar with baseball history, the Yankees had a +4.0 point differential, but still lost the World Series 4-3 to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

    BNM
     
    Boob-No-More, Apr 12, 2011
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  8. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    And BTW, here's the top 4 teams per conference in point differential from last season:

    Eastern Conference:
    ORL +7.5
    CLE +6.5
    ATL +4.7
    BOS +3.7

    Western Conference:
    UTA +5.3
    SAS +5.1
    PHO +4.9
    LAL +4.7

    So, the team with the 4th best point differential in each conference made the finals. So much for regular season point differential as a predictor for post season success.

    BNM
     
    Boob-No-More, Apr 12, 2011
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  9. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    Yeah, but Bill Mazeroski isn't walking through that door.
     
    BrianFromWA, Apr 12, 2011
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  10. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    FWIW - Since Gerald Wallace was inserted to the starting lineup, the Blazer's point differential is +6.6, vs. +1.7 for the season. It looks even better wehn you recognize that the Blazers are slow, slow, slow.
     
    andalusian, Apr 12, 2011
    #10
  11. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    (green font noted).

    However, in the NBA, the team with the best regular season point differential doesn't usually win the NBA championship. If they did, our last 9 NBA champions would be (actual champs shown in parentheses):

    ORL (LAL)
    CLE (LAL)
    BOS (BOS)
    SAS (SAS)
    SAS (MIA)
    SAS (SAS)
    SAS (DET)
    DAL (SAS)
    SAC (LAL)

    So, in the last nine seasons, the team with the best regular season point differential has won the NBA title three times.

    It would also be interesting to see how often the team with the better regular season point differential loses in the first round of the playoffs. There are so many variables involved (late season trades, players getting injured, or coming back from injuries, teams or individual players getting hot, or cold, match-ups, coaching, including game planning and in game adjustments, officiating, etc.) that using regular season point differential as a predictor of post season success seems like a short sighted, dogmatic approach that totally ignores all other factors.

    BNM
     
    Boob-No-More, Apr 12, 2011
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  12. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Good find.

    Over the last 25% of the regular season, the Blazers have the 5th best point differential in the league at +6.05. Dallas is 10th at +3.71, the Spurs are 9th at +3.80 and the Lakers 7th at +5.40. The Thunder are 3rd at +8.05.

    So, if recent point differential was an accurate predictor of post season success, we would be the favorite against any first round opponent, except OKC. Unfortunately, it's not. You still have to play the games and every game starts at 0-0.

    BNM
     
    Boob-No-More, Apr 12, 2011
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  13. blazerboy30

    blazerboy30 Well-Known Member

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    3 out of 9 seems like a pretty decent indicator. Can you find a stat / indicator that has higher than 33% success rate?

    Do things change if you take the teams' point differential / avg_points_scored?
     
    blazerboy30, Apr 12, 2011
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  14. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    First team to win 4 games == 100% correlation.

    I know that seems flippant, but so does dismissively using regular season point differential as a predictor of post season success.

    BNM
     
    Boob-No-More, Apr 12, 2011
    #14
  15. blazerboy30

    blazerboy30 Well-Known Member

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    Actually, that doesn't at all address the question, since the results of 4 games isn't predictive. I don't think anybody claimed it was a 100% accurate model. I don't think you'll find a predictive stat that will be 100% accurate. But is there something better than the 33% accuracy of pt differential prediction? You're dismissing it as if it is a terrible predictive indicator without putting forth anything better.
     
    blazerboy30, Apr 12, 2011
    #15
  16. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    Can't wait to prove all these people wrong. First time in years I have a lot of confidence with this team's chances. If the Blazers can play like they can, then I don't see any team able to match up with them.
     
    magnifier661, Apr 12, 2011
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  17. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

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    Well point differnetial may not be a perfect indicator but it is some sort of indicator. Is it a better indicator than the best regular season record? How does the team with a superior season record fair in any playoff series compared to a team with the superior point differential. I'm not sure but it'd be interesting to see the two compared.
     
    Draco, Apr 12, 2011
    #17
  18. Eastoff

    Eastoff But it was a beginning.

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    since acquiring Wallace, and bear in mind we've had a tough late schedule, the Blazers have gone 14-8 and have a 4.4+ Point differential
     
    Eastoff, Apr 12, 2011
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  19. EGame

    EGame "You're the only one of these fools I trust"

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    I still say we could upset San Antonio. Yes they are currently the best team in the league record wise and are very good, but we just have had there number recently these last couple of years. Of course, like everyone else I prefer Dallas, but would be fine with the Spurs as well. I don't give us to much hope against the Lakers or Thunder.
     
    EGame, Apr 12, 2011
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  20. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    Regular season means shit in the playoffs. Remember that Portland had HCA against Houston, beat them handledly in the regular season and failed in the post season. It's a whole new ball game in the post season. I would much rather face a half court team then a jump shooting one in the first round. I really don't want to see Dallas honestly.
     
    magnifier661, Apr 12, 2011
    #20
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