I think the key to this series is to make Dirk defend. He's probably their weakest defender and we have some guys who can take advantage of him. With Camby starting and playing a lot of minutes, Dirk can hide on the defensive end, and sag off him to help Chandler/Haywood against LA (Camby's shot is not effective enough to make him pay). Unless Dallas employs a zone D and fronts Aldridge a lot, I think Nic should start and force Dirk to guard either Aldridge, Wallace, or Batum on every possession. The first two games should tell us a lot about how they're gonna guard us. I hope Nate makes the necessary adjustments this year and will not be so dazed by any changes Carlisle makes.
Don't be too sure to cancel Camby out. Yes making Dirk have to guard Batum, Wallace or Aldridge may be good; but Camby is a must for anchoring the defense. Remember that Defense Wins Championships. There is a reason for that saying. With good defense; you can exploit a team when their shot isn't falling. Seriously put doubt in their minds they will even make another shot. During that time is when hopefully your offense is doing well. I think Camby is an excellent passer and he is used to running after a good defensive play. I'm sure we will see a lot of small ball; but I don't want it all the time. Too many people are underestimating our size. LMA, Camby and Wallace is a very formidable front court.
We need to control the defensive boards. Giving Dallas too many 2nd opportunities is a recipe for disaster. I actually thought the last two games Camby has looked like his old self, blocking shots and putbacks. We need him.
I suppose if Camby returns to his old self, he can be effective. But if he doesn't hit that jumper of his, we will have two guys that DAL can double LA off of.
The nice thing is we can go with two entirely different looks. If Camby is killing the rebounds and dominating the middle on defense, you can live with Dirk not having to guard anyone. After all, we also have Terry, Beaubois, Peja and Barea to exploit. When you want to talk about exploiting bad/undersized defenders, Dallas is a pretty target-rich environment. (Despite all that, though, Dallas is a pretty good defensive team. I think a lot of that comes from Chandler. A big key will be whether Aldridge can get him in foul trouble early and get him out of the game.) If Camby isn't contributing enough on the defensive end, you go small and force Dallas to adjust. Can they afford to leave Chandler in the game if Gerald Wallace and Andre Miller decide to turn this into a track meet? Hopefully that Laker game opened Nate's eyes up to the possibility of using the pace of the game to force Dallas to adjust.
Just to add to that--a seven game series (instead of a single-game matchup) is really in our favor. Dallas has scoring, but they really don't have a lot of versatility. They've got two big centers, two non-traditionaly PF/SF types in Dirk and Marion, and a bunch of 6'-6'5 guards, and the sad shell of Peja Stojakovic. Dirk and Terry get you most of your points. There just aren't a lot of personnel adjustments they can make over the course of the series. McMillan, on the other hand, has options. He'll start going big and running everything through the post with Aldridge. If that doesn't work he can direct more of the offense through Miller and Wallace. Batum can be a complementary defender, or he can be more of a focal point. Maybe we ask Miller to go for 30 in a game if nothing is working--he did 52 against this team once so it's not exactly impossible. It just seems like there are a lot more different looks Portland can give than Dallas can. Which in a way mitigates the loss of home court advantage. We'll probably lose the first game as most visiting teams generally do, but hopefully use lessons learned from it to steal a later one.
Gerald expressed the same sentiment in his interview yesterday, and he mentioned how teams have to match up against the Blazers, rather than the other way around. That's what SA did last year when they beat the Mavs in the first round. Lost the first game, and just tore them up defensively in 4 of the next 5 games.
Hey don't forget how good Camby is at passing the ball. Go ahead and double with Camby's man. Just send a cutter to the basket for a lob and a few of those will force Dallas to change their game plan.
