Why they'll make the playoffs: With Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis, Dorell Wright and David Lee in the starting lineup, Golden State went a respectable 28-30. Why they'll stay in the lottery: Because of their questionable depth, the Warriors dropped to 8-16 when at least one of their four core players was sidelined. Other than Milwaukee and Houston, the Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz were the other non-playoff teams with a better point differential than the Warriors, and both of them seem headed for rebuilding projects. Golden State has built a decent core, but must improve its depth via the draft and free agency. Look for Ekpe Udoh to emerge as the fifth starter next season. The Warriors were much more effective with him at center alongside the four core starters than veteran Andris Biedrins, outscoring opponents by 6.2 points per 100 possessions, per BasketballValue.com.
Personally, I'm not satisfied if their goal is to become a marginal playoff team with an outside shot at the last playoff spot. Leaping from dreadful to mediocre, is that really what we should aspire to? Yeah, they could win a couple more games if everything goes right, but nothing significant will change until they make huge, major, sweeping changes, on and off the court. They're far, far away from the championship that Lacob and Guber foolishly promised.
Seeing what happened with the Phoenix Suns and what is happening now with the New York Knicks makes my head spin. It makes me think that the Warriors are heading the wrong direction with small ball. We need a new coach and new GM to point us in the right direction. The NBA is in the era of STAR BALL where you need the "right" mix of stars and preferably big man stars.
Agree with HiRez. Throw a legitimate starting C in with our current "core" and they could make the playoffs but they'd be a first round exit pretty much every year. Dump Monta and try to get another legit star. We're stuck with Lee and should probably hold onto Curry unless we get an offer we can't refuse. Knowing those two are here long term we need to really fill in the 2, 3, and 5 spots with guys who are big, athletic, and play defense and hopefully one of them (at least) is a legit all-star/superstar. Good luck finding one of those though.
We heard the mantra in the NBA like "Defense wins championships" and "One needs at least two all-stars to win a championship." Here's another one. It's an interesting stat that I heard on ESPN late night radio about the NBA: "First round dominant teams win championships." It seems obvious, but someone took a look at teams that won 4-0 and 4-1 in the first round and found they were the ones that ended up winning championships. It was like 80-20. Thus, teams like San Antonio (dominant in the regular season) and Orlando aren't going to cut it. Miami, OKC and Chicago are ready to step up while teams like Dallas and Portland have a ways to go. ATL may surprise. We'll have to see. I'm open to trading Monta Ellis or Stephen Curry for someone like Deron Williams or Chris Paul. Our back court is small and we aren't getting enough assists and leadership from the PG position. We will still be small in the back court even with a blockbuster trade like that, but we'll have the leadership, assists and an all-star. What about Dwight? The only shot we have for him would be a free agent signing and that would be a long shot. I doubt we have the pieces to trade for him and still be viable.
I think the Warriors can make the playoffs next year. I don't think they are that far away from being a respectable playoff team. I think the difference is the system that is adopted and adding the right pieces to the bench. The big difference between teams that make and don't make the playoffs seems to be based on chemistry with coach, players, and system. When the Warriors players bought into playing defense consistently and hitting the glass and decided to pass the ball around they did really well. This was just not as often as needed. I don't have that much trust in Riley in setting the path for the necessary system though. But didn't we just give him an extension?
I agree with Clif, we had a shot to go to the playoffs, but we kept losing to teams we should have beaten due to carelessness or lack of effort or one reason or another. Why was it that we were such a bad road team? Is Ellis and the 3 point shot the only thing we have offensively besides an occasional David Lee hook/midrange shot? Hopefully we do better, but I think we need more depth. We also need to make better moves in the draft and through free agency to get a better core.
