This was written BEFORE the NBA draftAs the 2006 NBA Draft approaches, teams are busy finishing off the final evaluations and deciding which direction they are going to go on June 28th. The NBA draft lottery gives hope to those teams lucky enough to find themselves out of the playoffs. Expectations mount for teams with high draft picks. The question a person should ask, though, is this: Will the results match expectations?To answer this question, I have analyzed each of the top fourteen picks from 1984 ? 2003 (Jordan?s draft to Lebron?s). The results were very educational and a bit surprising. (Lebron still has to prove himself before being placed at the top of the list, but could be on his way)<u>Superstars and Busts</u>There is statistically a much greater chance that your team is going to draft a player who contributes nothing to the overall success of your franchise than there is a chance of drafting the next superstar. According to my rankings, which carry a bit of subjectivity, there have been 21 superstars drafted in the top 14 picks from 1984 ? 2003 and 75 busts. That?s not great news for those lottery bound fans.As the numbers show, the most likely outcome of a lottery selection is that a team will get a solid starter (43.9%) or a all star level (21.8%) player. The extremes, superstars and busts, occur only roughly a third (34.2%) of the time, while the average starter to all star level player is selected the other two thirds (65.7%) of the time.<u>Top Five Selections</u>Fans of a team with a top 5 selection have much more reason to be optimistic than those who fall in the 6 ? 14 range.Of the 21 superstars who have been selected in this 20 year range, 15 of them have been selected in the first 5 picks of the draft (71%). Conversely, the top 5 picks in the draft have yielded only 17 busts. Out of 100 total (top 5) picks made in the 20 years analyzed, that is a pretty good rate of return for those teams landing in the top 5.Of the 16 superstars selected in the top 5, almost half (7/15) of them have been selected first overall. Now, this should be good news for Raptors fans this year, but it isn?t. Those 7 superstars were all viewed as can?t miss prospects. This year's draft lacks a can't miss type talent, and very few number 1 picks have ?surprised? their GM?s and fans by morphing into superstars.(The rankings compiled are purely subjective.) (some players on the bubble for star/superstar included: Reggie Miller, Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, (in), Elton Brand, Chris Webber, Yao Ming, Alonzo Mourning, Grant Hill, Carmelo Anthony, Rasheed Wallace, Dikembe Mutombo, Ray Allen, Chris Mullin, Shawn Marion and Paul Pierce)<u>What?s Up with the Sixth Pick?</u>Minnesota fans, you will not be happy with the next piece of data we are going to look at. While the top 5 picks produce a pretty good return on your investment, the 6th pick easily has the worst history of any pick in the lottery. Considering its relatively high placement in the draft, the 6th pick has completely underperformed! Comparing it to the fifth pick, one can quickly see that the drop off is significant.The fifth overall selection has its fair share of busts, but the sixth pick has not yielded one upper echelon player. While you could debate the top end of the rankings, it is clear that a person would be choosing between average NBA starters. Normally, 2nd place is the first loser, but in the case of the NBA draft, 6th place is the first loser.<u>Later Lottery Selections</u>While there was some significant data to look at near the top of the draft, the later picks yielded some relatively normal results. From Picks 9 ? 14, well no superstars have ever been selected from picks 6 ? 8 (Chris Mullin just missed the cut), selections 9 -14 produced the final 7 superstars, with names like Kobe Bryant, Paul Pierce, and Karl Malone highlighting that group. On the flip side, the later picks have led to a lot of letdown. 55 selections have been either bench guys or busts. A team selecting 9 -14 in a draft would be glad to get a solid starter, but shouldn?t expect to land the next Michael Jordan! (The fourteenth pick was not a lottery selection for any of these years as it only became a lottery pick when the Charlotte Bobcats entered the league, but since it is now, I included the 14th pick.)<u>What does it all mean?</u>There are so many ways a person could go with this draft analysis, but the initial objective was to reset fans expectations for their lottery pick. The points that should jump out are this:Top 5 picks should be coveted. The results are significant that the top 5 picks in the draft produce starters or better 80% of the time.Overwhelmingly, the most likely type of player a team is going to end up with from the lottery is a solid starter (44%). The next most likely is a bench player (25%).Fans expecting a superstar should ice their expectations, especially if your pick is out of the top 5. Of the 180 picks from 6 ? 14, only 7 turned into superstars (4%).On the other side, 77 players selected from 6 ? 14 turned into bench players or busts (43%).The 6th pick overall has had the least productivity, while the 9th pick has yielded consistently strong results.This analysis should not dampen the excitement around the pick, but hopefully it sets our expectations at a realistic level. Optimism should reign supreme on June 28th, but hopefully it is followed by a shot of realism!nbadraft.net
That guy brought up some great points. Pretty good read, Those images stretch the forum though...... :closedeyes:
