place in between? As we all post and talk about trades and draft scenarios and such perhaps the key issue to try to "guess" at is what the heck is the plan? Will we trade for some vets at key positions? or just try to fine tune what we have and hope and pray Oden can come back and stay healthy and even wants to stay here, and also hope and pray Roy can come back and play at a decent and consistent level. Or just blow it up around a core of LMA and a few others? Frankly right now I haven't a clue which way we are headed, I perhaps lean to the idea that PA is in more of a win now mode - perhaps due to health concerns?
If they were thinking of blowing it up then they would not have traded for GW. That was a win now move. A lot depends on Oden and the new CBA. If PA's deep pockets can still be used to our advantage, then I see more moves or signings for vets.
I think there are two answers here. 1. What mode are they in: I beilieve the Blazers think they are in a win now mode. PA's health has certainly been better, and the fact that they just let go of a somewhat cautious GM says to me that they think they are close. PA, Larry Miller, Chad Buchanan and Nate have all been quoted within the last year of saying they are 1-2 players away. I believes the team thinks Oden and Roy will be healthy enough to make a run, and having won a good ammount of regular season games has them thinking they are close 2. What mode should they be in: Oden and Roy will never be the players the Blazers hoped they would be for the next ten years, the roster is a clusterfuck of mismatched talent, the team doesn't seem to know what style they want to play and with injuries, we have maybe 2 young players that are legit starters in the NBA. Portland should focus on Aldridge and Wallace, build a team around their strengths, and all but start over. EVERYONE knows my feelings regarding Nate, so I will spare you from that. For me, the goal of every NBA team should be to win a title. Some teams like OKC and CHI are close, and should be thinking 1-2 players away. Other teams like the Clippers and Bobcats are just starting the process, so they should be thinking on a much broader scale. Then other teams like Portland are somewhere in between. They are good enough to compete in the regular season, but haven't been close to getting out of the first round. Obviously whatever formula, or maybe a better word for Portland would be recipe, Portland is using, isn't working. Time to go in a new direction.
They should be in roughly the same mode all the time: some vague place in between. Team blow ups almost never bring you closer (time-wise) to contention. They are fan-created fantasies of #1 draft picks that become Tim Duncan and LeBron James and cap space that turns into...Tim Duncan and LeBron James. When, in fact, that is exceedingly rare and the draft picks and cap space usually turn into players much like the ones you dumped: decent with maybe one quite good player. The Blazers should always be looking to upgrade their talent, not detract from it. Whether that talent comes in the form of a veteran or a young player, they should only be focused on the net-present value or, in essence, the player's value modified by age. The Gerald Wallace deal was an excellent one because it upgraded the talent, even though it brought in a veteran rather than a prospect. The team shouldn't trade away young talent for very short-term improvements, but it shouldn't be ditching veterans, or turning down talented veterans with some years left in trade, just to become younger (or to become worse, in the "blow it up" plan). By and large, going from mediocre to good to great is a more likely path to contention than going from good to terrible to great (via a blow up).
A few thoughts: 1. The NBA isn't a binary situation where you're either challenging for a championship or blowing everything up and starting over. Most teams that win a title are consistently in the playoffs and are waiting for the opportunity to scoop up the necessary assets to move up to contention as they become available. Teams that blow it up and start all over again do so only out of absolute necessity due to loss of key players to age, injury, forced trades, or free agency. The road back, as Blazer fans should well know, is long and highly uncertain. 2. The Blazers have two solid players in Aldridge and Wallace that are All-Star quality. Aldridge may not have hit his ceiling yet. Roy and Oden are wildcards at this point. Oden could still be a dominant player if his recent MF surgery heals as well as his previous one. A few solid seasons out of him would have the Blazers as a contending team. It may never happen, but I'd sure hate to see the Blazers pass on the chance. Roy was more BranDone than Brandon last year, but when he was Brandon he was still an amazing player. The unfortunate thing is you can't count on him, so waiving him may end up being the smart thing if the new CBA offers that as an option. 3. Winning a title is often as much about good health and good fortune as it is about the roster. A GM can make solid moves, but still have things not work out. Only one team out of 30 gets the title, so this idea that you throw in your hand and constantly rebuild is silly. The Blazers have made it back into the circle of teams that make the playoffs consistently. They need to improve at a couple of spots, the most notable being PG, and they need to add some consistent role guys who can stick it from distance. Other than that, they need good fortune in terms of either getting Oden back and healthy or finding that elusive deal for another third star. IMO, you keep working to improve the lesser positions and watch for the big opportunities.
Actually, most teams that win a title have a superstar. If you don't have one, you need to get one. Portland doesn't have one, and needs to do what it canto get one. If they are not a place that attracts FA's, then they need to use the draft. Picking 20 something every year isn't going to get it done. Detroit is the last team I can remember without one, and they still had several former and future all-stars on their roster. They also hd 2nd team all-NBA player Ben Wallace.
The Blazers are definitely in a "win now" mode. They have most of the pieces they need to get it done too. The key is a healthy Oden. If he's healthy we can win it all. I have no doubt.
Exactly, if Oden becomes a superstar were right in the hunt. Mathews Wallace LMA Oden That's superstar defense right there. The final piece (big piece) to this puzzle is Nate creating a consistent offense.
Onky KP can make "blowing it up" look as easy as it did. Most cases you end up with empty seats and no one to build around. Keep improving the team and try to win a championship. The team isn't as far away as some people make it out to be.
For all the jokes about "Status Cho", he was the member of the front office most likely to support major changes. He got fired. This team isn't even within screaming distance of getting into the second round, let alone seriously contending. As long as their plan starts with "when Roy and Oden are healthy" - the best we can hope for is that the team is stuck in neutral. It is very possible that they will continue to regress.
I think they're in a "win now" mode because of Paul's health. Can they win now? I think they are missing a lot of pieces. I still think they need a couple decent role players and a shooter, especially in the backcourt, to really go anywhere in the playoffs.
I have a serious question. For those of you that think we are close, why? And I really mean that in a very non snippy way. I see a team that hasn't been close in the playoffs, has their best player a shell of his former self, and a frnachise changing center that has played 82 games in 4 seasons, was injured in college as well. A front office that can't get out of it's own way and a destination mostly overlooked by major FA's.
They're not close without Oden. With Oden, they have a superstar talent in Oden, an excellent second star talent in Aldridge, an excellent third star talent in Wallace, a smart and effective point guard in Miller and good supporting players in Matthews, Batum and Camby. That's a contending formula. So, the question boils down to this: is it more likely that Oden plays at least a few seasons going forward or that, after blowing it all up, the teams finds a superstar and secondary/tertiary stars in the draft and free agency? I suppose we can debate it, but to me the answer is very clear: It's much more likely that Oden has a few healthy seasons. Because finding franchise players and stars is exceedingly hard.
I think saying the Blazers are "close" is a bit off as far as I'm concerned. I think if things break their way on a couple of things, then they could be in the rather unexpected position the Mavs find themselves this year. I think that the majority of the issues you raise can easily be inverted to show a more positive take: 1. The team hasn't made it out of the 1st round for three years, but that's not truly a reflection of the talent level of the team, IMO, as much as it is reflective of injury issues. Put a healthy Oden or Roy on the court this year and I really believe the Blazers could have taken the Mavs and last year could have taken the Suns. 2. Roy may be be a "shell of his former self" (man, is that an overused cliche around here), but Aldridge showed signs of developing a game this year that exceeded anything that was expected of him based upon his previous seasons in the NBA. Given the complaints about Roy's isos, isn't that a net improvement in the structure of the team? Add in what Wallace can bring once the team is adapted to his talents, and I think you can argue pretty convincingly that the pluses outweigh Roy's minus. 3. Oden has had a horrible set of injuries in his first 4 seasons, but the plus for me is that none of them are repetitive issues that would signal a career-threatening situation like Roy's lack of meniscus. I'd be surprised if Oden achieves what we thought he would when he was drafted, but I think he can still have a significant career. He certainly adds physical size and abilities that not many players in the NBA can bring to his position. 4. The Cho firing has been spun here and in most of the media as a clear sign of the heavy hand of a meddlesome Paul Allen. While that could certainly be the case, it could equally well be that Cho simply didn't measure up to what the GM spot needed. If that's the situation, then getting the right man for the job hired this summer will be a major enhancement to the team's chances going forward. 5. I think the major FA not coming to Portland argument is overblown. Players at the end of their careers will go where they think they have a chance to win. If the Blazers can establish that they can be contenders, then FAs will sign here. If not, then the Blazers still have assets necessary to make trades if they get a GM who knows how to work the system. 6. Like I said, I don't necessarily think the Blazers are "close" right now, but looking around the West, where is the dominant team that is going to keep the Blazers from contending to make the finals. The Lakers and Spurs aren't what they used to be and, in the case of the Lakers, have salary issues that are going to make it really difficult to get new talent. The Mavs are old and don't have many seasons left in them. The Thunder are considered the heirs apparent, but showed some weaknesses in the playoffs that say that they're no sure thing. The Grizzlies, and potentially the Clippers, could make some noise, but I don't see them as overwhelming obstacles. The path looks more open than it has in years and the Blazers look to me to have a chance to be in the picture to fill the void as long as a few breaks go their way.
I would hope they are in a "Win Now" mode. As long as we get Oden back healthy; we should have all the pieces to build a championship contender. I would hate to blow up this team that maybe a few pieces away from contention.
Well Oden's injury in college is unrelated to the current issues in the NBA. A broken hand is hardly the same as injuries to his knees. Obviously the major concern will be his knees; but I suspect that he will be fine. In terms of "contention". This season we lost to the Western Conference Champions, and we won 1 more game than the other teams; including the "defending champions". If we had a healthy Oden; we may have had a better opportunity to beat Dallas. So in a nut shell: Healthy Oden + decent PG + a decent reserve PF rebounding defender = contention. This is even with Roy not being a factor.
