(Slightly OT): If Oden signs for minimum w/Heat...

If he takes the QO, then he will be a UFA in a year ... what's so "mockable" about that?

 

Nothing, but then you didn't say that he might look to sign with the Heat in a year. The article referenced in this thread is about this off-season.

Sorry, I'm not really looking to give you grief, but I really think that the worrying around here about Oden looking to be an UFA next year is off the mark. He's a young player who's looking for his first big multi-year deal. Given his injury history, I think he's going to want to get a long-term deal ASAP, not look to position himself for an end-of-career low-ball move where the primary concern is getting a title.

 

Actually I'm not worried about him being an UFA at all ... Him staying or going doesn't mean that much to me anymore.

 

There you go with the mockable stuff again.

Seriously, though, you seem so locked on pessimistic about the Blazers. With LA and Wallace, getting Oden back at even the Bowie-esque numbers talked about in the other thread would give the Blazers one of the best, perhaps THE best, front courts in the league, IMO. I think getting him back is reason enough for at least some marginal enthusiasm. I figure he's broken about everything there was to break and maybe we get a few decent years out of him. I'll settle for that.

 

I just need to see some evidence that he's capable of actually playing through a whole season before I get "optimistic" about him. If he can do that then we'll talk.

Beyond that, I'm thinking more long-term about what this team is going to look like. If the NHL lockout is any kind of guide (The NBA owners and players with similar 'intractable issues') we could be looking at a completely lost season, which means no likely successor for Andre Miller, Camby will be retired, etc. So also show me what the roster is going to look like in 18 months and we'll talk about optimism.

 

Oden signs Q.O., plays for $8.8m in Portland.

Oden signs MLE with Heatles in summer of 2012.

That's not very far-fetched for 2012. For 2011, it's impossible, though.

 

To be fair, my opinion on that is based on a hypothetical "Oden wants a fresh start in another city" strawman. If Oden doesn't mind staying in Portland, then he'll be a Blazer (assuming the Blazers will pay to keep him).

 

Fuck the Heat. I hope we sign GO longterm out of spite just to piss off Miami.

 

I think maybe he wouldn't be opposed to a fresh start, but I can't see him taking the risk of the QO IF another team offers him a long term deal. Knowing that portland would likely match. The security of a long term deal woudl over ride, IMO, his desire to go elsewhere. He could have the plan of sign the QO, then go UFA in 2012. But there will be some teams with cap space this offseaon, depending on what that cap looks like, and if someone said 4 years, 40, I can't see it being worth the risk, to him, of hoping to stay healthy, and just grabbing the QO.

 

Either Oden's injuries are legit, and his career is toast.....or he hates Portland so much much he will never be "healthy" until he gets away from here.

Either way, I don't expect to ever see him play for the Blazers.

 

That sums it up, the only possible options.

 

Or, Oden's injuries were legit ,but the injuries don't persist. And he ends up being a important part of the Blazers.



I wonder what the tipping point is for what the Blazers would match. I suppose any amount with only 2 years would be matched, but the question is what if the length is longer. Suppose Oden is offered 5 year 50mil. Would the Blazers match that?

 

Sunk cost. It doesn't matter how much we've spent in the past. You look at value going forward and what it is worth.

 

True, but don't you think it is more likely that if he takes the Q.O. he tries for a sign and trade (assuming it still exists?). I think it is a no brainer to sign Oden to a Q.O. If he takes it at least you have a potentially tradeable piece if the S&T still exists. If he signs the MLE a year later for the Heat, that's his right too, but I am thinking karma is gonna get him. The most likely outcome in my opinion is that he doesn't take the Q.O. and tries to negotiate the best possible contract he can. If he wants out, he can always demand a trade. Then the franchise can trade him and save face. Also, if he starts having some success, he will see what it is like to be revered by one of the best fan bases in sports. I don't think there is anyway Oden should think 1 and done.

 

Oden would be a fool to leave money on the table.
Portland would be foolish to not offer a nice 4/40 type deal and wrap him up for the future. His injuries have all been un-related and separate. He will be healthy again.
Our only problem is if GO doesn't play in the next year for us, and becomes a UFA. I doubt it happens though.

 

In what way would you say Oden's injuries have been unrelated? I'll give you the broken wrist in college and the sprained foot in his second year, but aside from that he's had 4 major knee issues, only one of which could be called contact related.

 

I'm no doctor, but I'd say that it's likely that he had some sort of genetic weakness of the articular cartilage in his knees. He's a big guy, but there are lots of big guys in the NBA who are able to play without having their cartilage give out from what seems to be non-contact incidents. It's possible that the broken patella was somehow related to the chip that he had in the same knee the previous year, although the doctors have said that they don't think it was. It's pretty hard to make a case that the patella issues are related in any way to the cartilage issues.

The patella break is fully healed by now, so I don't see any reason to think that it's going to be a problem for him going forward. The MF surgery in his knees may shorten his career, but it seems likely that he'll be able to play at a high level for some period of time. There's no damage to any of his tendons or ligaments, so the knees should be stable. Undoubtedly, the emphasis in his training will be on building up the muscle mass to absorb some of the punishment his knees are going to take. He's also said to be working to get his weight down to ease the forces on his knees. If he does all of that, I don't see any reason that he shouldn't be able to have a reasonable length of career.

 

I don't know.... Greg is one person in the media and from what I've heard a complete jerk when the cameras are off! I could totally see him pulling a Labron James and ending up with Miami. He'd be given a ring in his first year and he'd get a ton of media exposure + he's young and south beach is very enticing!

Don't be shocked if he bolts.... He's already got millions, what's really keeping him here? The weather? HAHA!