Just put this out there on RealGM, so I thought I'd try to get our merry little SportsTwo band's take as well. Ever since the Bulls traded Tyrus Thomas to the Bobcats, there has been discussion about how we should value the first round pick from the Bobcats. It's tricky because we don't know when the pick can be used. As I recall, it goes something like this: 2012 lottery-protected 2013 top-12 protected 2014 top-10 protected 2015 top-8 protected 2016 unprotected Some folks are getting all hopped up about Mirotic (cough*SST*cough), but for at least the next couple years, he's an asset, not a player. I see Mirotic and the Bobcats pick as being similar in many ways: - Unless traded, neither figures to do the Bulls any good for a while. - If kept, we don't know when either will be available to help. - If kept, both Mirotic and the unknown player we would eventually get with the Charlotte pick could be very, very good. Or not. So my question is, let's say another team wants to trade us someone we want/need and insists on either the rights to Mirotic or the Bobcats pick as part of the deal. Which would you rather keep?
Way to go, Good Hope! I've had a heckuva time on that other site trying to get folks to answer the question I asked. They all seem to want to explain how the watch was made rather than telling me what time it is. One line and you provided your take and an answer.
At your service. It's simple, really. Mirotic has value for us in so many ways that don't make as much sense for other teams. The pick can be whatever the other team wants it to be (at least, in their dreams)... And it would be cruel to torment SST like that.
It's 12:16 PM. At least here anyway. The gamble is on whether the Charlotte pick will happen in less than 4 years and if it will be < #23.
Can someone answer this question about that pick. If its one pick, how is it protected that way? Is the stipulation if its in the lottery next summer, they keep it but we get it the year after? Im really confused about the rules behind it.
I'd wait until trade deadline and see how Charlotte is doing. If they're in the playoffs, you have to weigh whether you are going to get a pick better than #23, which should net you a better player.
Of course there are a lot of 'ifs and buts' with this type of thing, but if I had a gun to my head, I'd trade the Charlotte pick and keep Mirotic. I remember when I looked at all the protections surrounding the Charlotte pick, I was thinking that its net present value was probably something around a 1st round draft pick in the low 20's. The odds are very small that it'll turn out to be a good pick. So they're about the same. But Mirotic seems to have talent un-befitting of a guy picked at #23. But if the choice is between a highly talented guy who will be available in 2-3 years or a highly talented guy who'll be available in 2-3 years, I guess I'll take a bird in the hand.
If I'm allowed to answer a variant of the question: I think it's unlikely a team would demand either the Charlotte pick or Mirotic. The Charlotte pick has more value to other teams, regardless of how the two assets are valued to the Bulls. We have to remember that Mirotic isn't as clean an asset as the Charlotte pick. The Charlotte pick is going to be conveyed to the Bulls one way or another, it's just a question of how high the pick will be. Mirotic is more of a situation. You have to forge a long term relationship, help negotiate a buy out, set him up with local sponsors to help cover his loses, focus his skill development and strength training before he comes over, plan semi-regular visits . . . The Bulls have elected to begin building a relationship with Mirotic in the hopes that they will be able to bring him over in the next two to four years. You can't just trade his rights to another team without them having to start over from scratch in the process. I think, after draft day, Mirotic probably only has negligible value to other teams, where the Charlotte pick is a real asset.
First, Denny's usual unimpeachable logic not withstanding, I think it depends on what the other team is offering. If they are offering an all-defense SG who can hit 50% on 3's, I'd offer them the choice of whichever they want. Are we assuming this mythical deal is going down tomorrow? If so I think I'd want to keep the pick because Mirotic is probably 2 years away and the pick might be used next year, and might be packaged in the same way to get next's year's Mirotic. However, in a year, assuming Mirotic shows he is the next big thing, I would prefer keeping Mirotic for a bunch of reasons. First, unless the pick turns out to be a top 3 pick, chances are Mirotic is going to be able to step in and play at a championship level at lot sooner than any pick even a top 3 pick. Second, Taj and Asik are coming up on free agency and the bulls will probably not be able to sign both, so Mirotic could step in for one of them in a year.
Well, when you put it that way, I'd offer them Mirotic's head on a platter, if that's what it took to get an all-defense, 50% 3Pt shooting 2G. Do you think that's all it'll take?
Next year, lottery protected. If Charlotte is in the lotto, we wait until next year. Then if Charlotte's pick is 13+, we get it, or wait another year...
FF7, this appeared above, but I'll try to add some narrative: 2012 lottery-protected (if after next season, the Bobcats don't make the playoffs, we wait). 2013 top-12 protected (if we didn't get the pick in 2012 and the B-Cats pick is top 12, we wait). 2014 top-10 protected (if we didn't get the pick in 2012 0r 2013 and the B-cats pick is top 8, we wait). 2015 top-8 protected (if we didn't get the pick in 2012, 2013 or 2014 and the B-Cats pick is in the top 8, we wait). 2016 unprotected (if we've waited this eternity, we get the B-cats pick wherever it falls). Does this help?
So basically its a future pick (no specific year named) that we get if it doesnt land in the lottery?
Who said anything about them walking? But they could be very easily traded, especially since they are the bulls best trade chips. Assuming the bulls keep Noah and can't move boozer, there is no way they can sign Rose and then turn around and give both Asik and Gibson the $5-10 mil a year they will be able to get on the open market.
We get it next year if it doesn't land in the lottery. After that, it could be a lottery pick (lottery being top 14 picks).
