Will be a straight up trade. Reportedly Mets will pay $4 mil of the $6 mil Beltran is owed and I've read they're also essentially paying Wheeler's signing bonus of $3 mil. Interesting that we caved on giving a blue chip prospect. That said I can't complain because a) our window of opportunity is NOW b) we got the best hitter on the market, a LEGIT #3 hitter in the lineup c) I trust in Sabes and Tidrow, maybe its another Alderson-Sanchez type move, d) though Wheeler has nasty stuff he does have a 4 ERA in A ball and doesn't look like he's going to AA any time soon. Guy has control issues which isn't that much of a red flag for a 21 y/o IMO but it looks like hes no Cain/Lincecum/Bumgarner who can blow through the minors at a young age while displaying great control AND great stuff. New tentative lineup: CF Torres 2B Keppinger LF Beltran 3B Pablo RF Nate 1B Huff/Belt SS Fontenot C Whiteside/Stewart P Some notes: - It will be interesting to see how Bochy uses the OFers. In my opinion you keep running Nate out there every day as long as he keeps hitting. Ideally I'd like to platoon Torres and Ross and just bench Rowand but Torres and Ross have both been pretty disappointing and its hard to ignore Rowand's ownage on lefties this season. Hopefully Torres or Ross puts it together with the bat and claims the CF job. Sadly though, I fully expect Bochy to continue the Torres/Rowand CF platoon and make a Nate/Ross RF platoon, thus taking ABs from Nate. Belt appears to be pushed out of any playing time in the OF altogether. - I went with Beltran in the 3 hole and Pablo at 4 due mostly to Beltran's speed and OBP. - I'd feel much better if we added a decent catcher. Ramon Hernandez would be HUGE but even a Torrealba or something. I just don't see Whiteside/Stewart as guys I think can get us anywhere in the playoffs. Perhaps and upgrade at SS would ease my concerns though. Those 7/8 slots in the lineup are still sooooo weak. - It seems like lately Bochy is heavily leaning toward Fontenot at SS. I'm a big Crawford fan but I'm ok with this move. IMO Fontenot's bat is better than what he's shown this year (outside of that hot streak he had at the beginning of the season). Give him several more games to get into a groove as the starter and see if the offense picks up. I'd love to send Crawford to AAA to get more ABs if Fontenot claims that starting job but hes too valuable as a late inning replacement and we're low on utility IFs. - At some point Bochy NEEDS to give Belt a couple starts at 1B in a row to see if he can hit. I agreed with Bochy earlier in the year that we needed Huff to figure it out to be a winner again. But that has changed with Pablo continuing to rake, Beltran being added, and Nate emerging as a good 5/6 hitter. We've got an ok 1-5 in the lineup now. Huff still isn't getting it done at all. If Belt hits at any kind of respectable average he would be a big upgrade at that 5 or 6 spot. Even if his BA is as bad as Huff's hes shown great patience, great defense, and ability to hit all over the field- all things Huff has been lacking.
Another thing about Wheeler: apparently there is some concern about his mechanics leading to injury down the line. Seems like he was nearly unanimously regarded as the G's top prospect (not including Belt) but it seems like the Beltran negotiations have lead reporters/scouts to believe that Sabes and the G's braintrust valued Brown quite a bit more.
strangely im ok with this, i usually overvalue our prospects, but you gotta trust the FO with this one, icing on the cake would be to persuade beltran to re-sign after the season for a reasonable contract (boras) wheeler is a stud, and i wish we got more for that #6 pick....but we need hitting like a motherfucker. a thought i had was, i bet we could have got beltran for wheeler in spring training, oh well
It wouldn't make sense to trade for Beltran in spring training though. We had every position filled and a decent lineup and we raised payroll to get there. I've been thinking about the possibility of retaining Beltran as well but it doesn't seem realistic. So much can change between now and free agency though. First off what is the market like for a 34 year old with an injury history and a reputation for showing up big time in contract years? And how much does Beltran value playing on a winner if it means taking a paycut? A deep playoff run could convince him to shave a few million off his asking price but a disappointing finish probably would make him as good as gone. Then again, hes represented by Scott Boras who isn't known for making any concessions in the free agent market. Ultimately I don't think we'll have much control over the situation. If someone gives him big money over multiple years I don't think we can do that. We have a lot of important pieces who are due raises as it is. But if the market is pretty dry on him and he prefers to stay in SF then I think there is a small chance we can keep him. I wouldn't mind an incentive laden contract for him but I don't think Boras would go for that. Damn I didn't know Wheeler was drafted so high. Thought we took him in the 10-12 range. Sabean said today that he consulted with Dick Tidrow who indicated that our farm system could absorb losing Wheeler and has more power arms that they like. Speficially, Runzler, Hembree, and Crick were listed. We overpaid but its hard to argue with adding one of the best hitters in the NL to help us defend our world series. Sabean also said they'll look to use the 4 mil in savings to add another player. Rumblings about the G's interested in Furcal (who has started to put it together the last few weeks). Sabes said most likely it will be waiver claims but I really don't like relying on that. If you can get a Furcal for the price of taking on his contract and a mediocre prospect I'd jump on it. Same with moving a B/C prospect for a starting catcher.
what do you think he will get this offseason? i bet something like 4/60 ish... tidrow/sabz thought wheeler was good enough for the #6 pick...but now they think he is expendable...kinda like "dont listen to what i said, listen to what im saying" all in all im happy though, but he better hit damnit
I have no clue what Beltran would pull this offseason. Like I said I think so much can change its impossible to speculate right now. If its 4/60 then I would hope we don't match that. I have a hard time seeing why a team would offer him a 4 year deal at 34 years old but you never know what the hell these GMs are thinking or if they even care (Yanks, Sox, etc.). I don't know if I'd even go up to 3 years with him though I think someone will definitely offer him 3 years. I'd love to get him on like a 2 year 24 mil deal with incentives that could bump him up a few mil a year if he reaches them and then maybe a team option for a 3rd year. That seems utterly unrealistic with Boras negotiating though. Plus I think you'll get multiple teams willing to give him 3/45 and if there's a bidding war then someone will cave and give him the 4/60. If Tidrow says its fine to move Wheeler then I trust him. The Alderson-Sanchez trade looked nuts at the time but Alderson totally fell off the map and its like we got Sanchez for free. I doubt Wheeler totally falls apart like that but, as people have pointed out lately, Wheeler wasn't that dominant in San Jose if you were to go purely off of ERA (which isn't the best metric, I know). Hes got great stuff by all accounts but there are control issues and I've read a bit about concerns over his mechanics. Tidrow certainly knows a hell of a lot about these things so maybe there was something there he didn't like and gave Sabes the ok to move him now. There's no doubt that Wheeler has great potential but maybe he just wasn't progressing like we wanted. Or maybe we just adopted the east coast philosophy of going all in when your window is open. Wheeler could be a good starter but that's no guarantee. We had the chance to pick up a great hitter and defend the title. Who knows where we'll be by the time Wheeler is ready.
