CERN Finds “Significant” Cosmic Ray Cloud Effect

Discussion in 'Blazers OT Forum' started by Denny Crane, Aug 30, 2011.

  1. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/25/some-reactions-to-the-cloud-experiment/

    Best known for its studies of the fundamental constituents of matter, the CERN particle-physics laboratory in Geneva is now also being used to study the climate. Researchers in the CLOUD collaboration have released the first results from their experiment designed to mimic conditions in the Earth’s atmosphere. By firing beams of particles from the lab’s Proton Synchrotron accelerator into a gas-filled chamber, they have discovered that cosmic rays could have a role to play in climate by enhancing the production of potentially cloud-seeding aerosols. –Physics World, 24 August 2011

    If Henrik Svensmark is right, then we are going down the wrong path of taking all these expensive measures to cut carbon emissions; if he is right, we could carry on with carbon emissions as normal.–Terry Sloan, BBC News 3 April 2008


    Henrik Svensmark welcomes the new results, claiming that they confirm research carried out by his own group, including a study published earlier this year showing how an electron beam enhanced production of clusters inside a cloud chamber. He acknowledges that the link between cosmic rays and cloud formation will not be proved until aerosols that are large enough to act as condensation surfaces are studied in the lab, but believes that his group has already found strong evidence for the link in the form of significant negative correlations between cloud cover and solar storms. Physics World, 24 August 2011

    CERN’s CLOUD experiment is designed to study the formation of clouds and the idea that Cosmic Rays may have an influence. The take-home message from this research is that we just don’t understand clouds in anything other than hand-waving terms. We also understand the effects of aerosols even less. The other things to come out of it are that trace constituencies in the atmosphere seem to have a big effect on cloud formation, and that Cosmic rays also have an effect, a “significant” one according to CERN. –David Whitehouse, The Observatory, 25 August 2011

    I have asked the CERN colleagues to present the results clearly, but not to interpret them. That would go immediately into the highly political arena of the climate change debate. One has to make clear that cosmic radiation is only one of many parameters. –Rolf-Dieter Heuer, Director General of CERN, Welt Online 15 July 2011

    Although they never said so, the High Priests of the Inconvenient Truth – in such temples as NASA-GISS, Penn State and the University of East Anglia – always knew that Svensmark’s cosmic ray hypothesis was the principal threat to their sketchy and poorly modelled notions of self-amplifying action of greenhouse gases. In telling how the obviously large influences of the Sun in previous centuries and millennia could be explained, and in applying the same mechanism to the 20th warming, Svensmark put the alarmist predictions at risk – and with them the billions of dollars flowing from anxious governments into the global warming enterprise. –-Nigel Calder, 24 August 2011

    Jasper Kirkby is a superb scientist, but he has been a lousy politician. In 1998, anticipating he’d be leading a path-breaking experiment into the sun’s role in global warming, he made the mistake of stating that the sun and cosmic rays “will probably be able to account for somewhere between a half and the whole of the increase in the Earth’s temperature that we have seen in the last century.” Global warming, he theorized, may be part of a natural cycle in the Earth’s temperature. Dr. Kirkby was immediately condemned by climate scientists for minimizing the role of human beings in global warming. Stories in the media disparaged Dr. Kirkby by citing scientists who feared oil-industry lobbyists would use his statements to discredit the greenhouse effect. And the funding approval for Dr. Kirkby’s path-breaking experiment — seemingly a sure thing when he first announced his proposal– was put on ice. –Lawrence Solomon, National Post, 23 Feb 2007
     
  2. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Let me guess... those guys at CERN work for the oil industry.
     
  3. bluefrog

    bluefrog Go Blazers, GO!

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  4. maxiep

    maxiep RIP Dr. Jack

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    Obviously, that guy is no different than a racist and a Holocaust denier.
     
  5. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Strangely enough, Al Gore has made a $100M fortune from the hoax.
     
  6. bluefrog

    bluefrog Go Blazers, GO!

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    Don't forget the Noble Peace Prize.

    I'd say most people who study climate have less respect for Al Gore than you do. I wish people would stop using him as the poster boy for a scientific theory.
     
  7. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Belongs in the funny papers.

    This is the same Krugman whose economic models led him to predict rapid return to inflation in 1983.

    And the CERN experiment is rather conclusive that the 97% voting scientists are on the wrong side. I bet Krugman would believe the world is flat if 97% of scientists said so in some vote.
     
  8. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    You use an astrologer, basically, as a poster boy, tho.
     
  9. bluefrog

    bluefrog Go Blazers, GO!

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    Miss Cleo?
     
  10. bluefrog

    bluefrog Go Blazers, GO!

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    Some interesting questions raised by the research. I could do without the bullshit commentary like this:

    I won't bother debating the science because no one on this forum is interested in it.

    It's interesting that your 2nd post criticizes those who question the messenger and not the content of the message. But then you turn around and criticize Krugman, ignoring all of his message on the subject.

    It's naive of you to think this study negates all of AGW research. It's not conclusive at all.
    There are big holes in the AGW theory. There are big holes in the theory evolution. There are big holes in the theory of relativity. Just because you have strong feelings on it doesn't make you right.
     
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2011
  11. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko boomer maniac Staff Member Global Moderator

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    The first rule of S2 is that if you feel strongly about something, then you are right and the experts are wrong and/or engaged in a conspiracy.

    barfo
     
  12. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Check out the sources quoted. Like Physics Magazine.

    The actual key thing that comes out of this is the models not only have manipulated data put into them, but this CERN result/variable is one of thousands missing from the models. Humans are imperfect, hence the models always will be.

    As I've posted a few times before, if models were good enough for much simpler things than a whole planet's geology and atmosphere, they wouldn't need crash dummies in Detroit. They'd just tell us their models say the cars are safe!
     
  13. BLAZER PROPHET

    BLAZER PROPHET Well-Known Member

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    Gotta admit, this statement is pretty much on the mark.
     
  14. jlprk

    jlprk The ESPN mod is insane.

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    All I see in the OP is Physics Today saying that cosmic rays coming in from other stars may affect aerosols in our clouds. Then the OP quotes a few political pundits saying this disproves the millions of measurements showing climate change. Climate change says that the average temperature is rising and will continue, forcing most people and crops to migrate away from the equator and coasts, costing untold money.

    Republicans must know more science than I do, so can you explain the connection between the science announcement and your political conclusion?
     
  15. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Where are the glaciers that covered the great lakes? Gasp, they're gone! It's Man's fault, of course.

    Of course the earth's been warming, but it has been doing so for the last 10,000 years since the last ice age ended. There was no industrial revolution 10,000 years ago, though. That's a giant hole in the man-made global warming theory.

    http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=975f250d-ca5d-4f40-b687-a1672ed1f684

    Jasper Kirkby is a superb scientist, but he has been a lousy politician. In 1998, anticipating he'd be leading a path-breaking experiment into the sun's role in global warming, he made the mistake of stating that the sun and cosmic rays "will probably be able to account for somewhere between a half and the whole of the increase in the Earth's temperature that we have seen in the last century." Global warming, he theorized, may be part of a natural cycle in the Earth's temperature.

    Dr. Kirkby was immediately condemned by climate scientists for minimizing the role of human beings in global warming. Stories in the media disparaged Dr. Kirkby by citing scientists who feared oil-industry lobbyists would use his statements to discredit the greenhouse effect. And the funding approval for Dr. Kirkby's path-breaking experiment -- seemingly a sure thing when he first announced his proposal-- was put on ice.

    Dr. Kirkby was stunned, and not just because the experiment he was about to run had support within his scientific institute, and was widely expected to have profound significance. Dr. Kirkby was also stunned because his institute is CERN, and science performed at CERN had never before seemed so vulnerable to whims of government funders.

    ...

    The IPCC draft report ranks the sun as an all-but-irrelevant factor in climate change. More oddly, it has come to this conclusion although it states that there is no consensus among solar scientists, meaning the IPCC admits it has no hard evidence to go on. Even more oddly, given the excitement and the anticipation that the CLOUD experiment is generating among the 6,500 particle physicists in CERN's community, the IPCC has decided to diminish the sun's estimated contribution to climate change by more than half, from its previously small contribution to one that is yet smaller.

    Meanwhile, scientists who tout the manmade theory of global warming to the exclusion of others continue to disparage the CLOUD experiment. "This link is not properly established for the moment," said Dr. Urs Neu of the Swiss Forum for Climate and Global Change, a prominent critic. "The cosmic ray theory has been used by people who want to deny human influence on global warming."

    ...

    Now, to head off attacks, and controversies that might once again derail the CLOUD product, he hides his hopes and downplays the significance of what CLOUD may find: "If there really is an effect, then it would simply be part of the climate-change cocktail," a perhaps less naive, more politic Dr. Kirkby now states.
     
  16. bluefrog

    bluefrog Go Blazers, GO!

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    This is so much bullshit. Show me an article with all these scientists condemning Kirby's recent findings.

    I googled his name and all of the top results were like the article you posted, right wingers disparaging climate scientists. "Oh, they're trying to suppress this research! It's a conspiracy! You'll never hear about this in the 'lame-stream' media."

    Bullshit. I found articles about this research on the AP, Telegraph, Financial Post, The Economist, BBC, Canada Free Press, Ars Technica, International Business Times. Even the fucking Guardian and "ultra-liberal" MSNBC had articles on the study.

    BTW, Real Climate had an awesome article on the research. http://www.realclimate.org/index.ph...rncloud-results-are-surprisingly-interesting/

    Most scientists don't care about the politics. All of the people I know doing climate research are not married to AGW or cosmic ray theory or any other theory. They just want to understand the climate better.

    Do you know which report this refers to? I couldn't find any of these assertions in their latest draft report: http://www.ipcc.ch/meetings/session33/draft_report_p33.pdf
     
  17. jlprk

    jlprk The ESPN mod is insane.

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    I still fail to see the point. Denny's last post says that global warming has been happening for 10,000 years. He gives a backup reason if that fails--that the cause is outside the Earth.

    I don't care what the cause is. That's just a diversionary tactic. What matters is that it's happening and will turn civilizaton upside-down within a century. Everyone will move away from the equator and coasts, and every piece of property will have to be rebuilt at the new locations. The migration will cost trillions, but it will cost less if billions are put into either 1) a giant plan to migrate and massively rebuild or 2) technology installed into industry and factories right where they are now.

    My point is, your information about the cause isn't relevant, as long as you admit it's happening. The scientists you cite are debating the cause, not the fast-rising temperatures themselves.
     
  18. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I've consistently said it's happening. If we truly fear the kinds of outcomes predicted by the alarmists, we'd be much better off using the $trillions they want to use to put us back in the stone age instead to move Miami inland a couple hundred miles so the people won't drown.
     
  19. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    This link:
    http://ep.probeinternational.org/2011/01/25/lawrence-solomon-has-the-ipcc-discovered-the-sun/

    Plus the date on the report you linked to (10-13 May),

    Plus the date on the CLOUD experiment report

    completely validates what's said in the article:

    "Even more oddly, given the excitement and the anticipation that the CLOUD experiment is generating among the 6,500 particle physicists in CERN's community, the IPCC has decided to diminish the sun's estimated contribution to climate change by more than half, from its previously small contribution to one that is yet smaller."

    As for Kirkby, if you want to refute what's been written recently, you need to find mainstream articles from 1998. It's taken almost 13 years for him to find funding or approval to go ahead with his study.

    Again I quote:

    Jasper Kirkby is a superb scientist, but he has been a lousy politician. In 1998, anticipating he'd be leading a path-breaking experiment into the sun's role in global warming, he made the mistake of stating that the sun and cosmic rays "will probably be able to account for somewhere between a half and the whole of the increase in the Earth's temperature that we have seen in the last century." Global warming, he theorized, may be part of a natural cycle in the Earth's temperature.

    Dr. Kirkby was immediately condemned by climate scientists for minimizing the role of human beings in global warming. Stories in the media disparaged Dr. Kirkby by citing scientists who feared oil-industry lobbyists would use his statements to discredit the greenhouse effect. And the funding approval for Dr. Kirkby's path-breaking experiment -- seemingly a sure thing when he first announced his proposal-- was put on ice.
     
  20. bluefrog

    bluefrog Go Blazers, GO!

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    This article links to a paper by the Danish National Space Center. Do you have a link to the IPCC draft report referred to in the article? I'm interested in what it actually says. It could be what the article states, but it seems fishy.

    Did a little Google search from 1997 to 2000 on Dr. Kirby. This is the only article that came back:
    http://news.google.com/newspapers?i...AAAAIBAJ&pg=5632,47410&dq=jasper kirkby&hl=en
    Granted, if I had time I could go to the archives at the library and probably find more.

    I see no evidence he faced resistance due his cosmic ray theory.

    Lawrence Solomon has created this narrative that there is a big conspiracy to suppress research that goes against AGW. He seems more interested in sensationalizing the debate rather than discussing the actual science. I'm always skeptical of people that appeal more to emotion than intellect.
     

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