Go here. http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/president/ev_scorecard_2011-09-15_11-54-35.php Look at the scoreboard. Looks like 205-191 Obama. Now look at the Tossup column. I see these states not going for Obama: Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. That adds up to 101 electoral votes, putting the republican over the top with 292 electoral votes. I feel pretty good about predicting those states go republican, no matter who the nominee is. On top of those states, Michigan and Colorado could expand the number. And Wisconsin. Tea Party candidate beat Russ Feingold. They elected a Republican governor. The Democrats (nationally) threw everything they could at recalling a few republicans to overturn the collective bargaining for public unions restrictions passed, and they failed. Maybe that state is a little more than leans republican. If you figure otherwise, feel free to point out why. Realize I've looked at the latest state polls for those states, and Obama is behind or barely ahead in them - and those are states he won rather handily in 2008. That they're even close is bad news for the president's chances.
I see Florida in the Obama column. The dems will use serious scare tactics trying to convince the republicans will eliminate their SS benefits. I was watching the dem party leader for the state Sunday and she stated the 'right' has a plan in place to eliminate SS and blah blah blah. That language plays well when senior citizens are involved/ It'll be a good scare tactic.
Pretty sure the election isn't tomorrow, so I wouldn't get too excited if I were you. I don't buy your 'no matter who the R nominee is' hypothesis. Candidates do matter. barfo
Florida’s unemployment rate was 10.8 percent in April, or nearly 2 percentage points higher than the national average. The state has been hit harder by foreclosures and loss in property values than most of the country. After Florida Democrats made gains in 2008, voters went quickly in the opposite direction in 2010. Republicans won the governorship, a U.S. Senate seat and three other statewide offices, plus huge majorities in the Legislature. And they elected Jeb Bush twice; the first republican ever reelected as governor there. And Obama has been alienating the Jewish voters and there are a lot of Jewish voters in Florida.
Do you really think any Republican is going to lose any of those states listed as solid republican? Or that any Democrat would lose California or New York?
The red and blue states would be very difficult for any candidate to crack, but not impossible. If there is some sort of additional economic meltdown before the election, I could imagine Obama losing some blue states. At the same time, if the R's nominate someone crazy like Bachmann or Ron Paul, I can see Obama winning some red states. And yes, I've seen your poll with Ron Paul within a few points of Obama. My response to that is, the election isn't tomorrow, the campaign has barely begun. Let's find out who the R's are going to run, and who decides to make a 3rd party run (maybe that Ron Paul guy?) and then we'll see what's what. barfo
You think Florida will go Obama? It's funny how both sides use scare tactics, but when your side does it it's ok. I've long felt that if you're stupid enough to fall for the scare tactics of the government (during election season especially), you don't deserve the right to vote. and just to be clear here, I'm not saying "your side" as in you personally BP. that was the royal you.
Exactly. He's no threat to the intelligence agencies or their torture, so he's in the in-crowd. Any new President would be a risk to them, so why take a chance. This is why the incumbent usually wins. You just hack into the Diebold software and make your winner win.
All too true. HOWEVER, scare tactics targeting senior citizens is a very potent weapon in any state with so many retirees and senior citizens. And, with all due respect to lefties, nobody can run high powered scare tactics like lefties. I think we may all be surprised how that state goes. Also, in Michigan, I'd put it left leaning. The unions there have learned how to gain a lot of fraudulent votes there. A good 1% I'd say. That will mean a lot to Obama and they are deeply indebted to him for the money and GM he gave to them. Another toss up state I think will go his way for sure.
How could anyone seriously elect this guy again? I have been on this planet for 9 Presidents. I have been able to form a logical opinion about what is right and wrong since the end of the Ford Presidency. Obama is by far the single worst President we have had in my rational thinking lifetime. He is in way over his head, and anyone not realizing that shouldn't be allowed to vote.
Michigan shouldn't be in play, but it is! The irony is that people can compare and contrast Ford with Government Motors. The economy everywhere is bad on Obama's watch, it's not helping car sales. Detroit has turned into a ghost town, almost. They were talking about bulldozing entire neighborhoods because they were empty. 2 of the last three governors and 3 of the last 5 governors are republicans. The people in the manufacturing States are particularly hard hit by the Obama Depression. Also, like Michigan, Ohio has a republican governor. Governors tend to have good organizations to help presidential candidates get elected.
If you look at the past electoral maps, Dems win a sliver of states in the northeast, west, and the occasional Michigan or Ohio or Wisconsin type state in between. Hence the term "fly over states."
did huevon hack your account? and im aware of electoral tendencies, it seems the higher the average education, the more democratic they are
