Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimbursement

Benefits to cutting Roy before this season:
• Cash savings of 2011-12 luxury tax
• Cash savings from waiver claim salary reimbursement.
• Full use of $5 million MLE this off-season instead of $3 million “mini” MLE
• Greater freedom to make trades now, during the season, and 2012 draft day deals.
• Staying out of the luxury tax this season could prevent the team from having to pay the repeater tax down the road
• Possible strategic benefit from knowing all ties to the Roy era are over. Move on to game planning without him, and allowing other players Roy’s minutes or touches.

Cons to cutting Roy before this season:
• Not having a final opportunity to verify Roy’s condition is chronic
• Fan backlash, lost revenue
• Player backlash; future free agents being weary of joining a team that cut a cornerstone after one bad season
• No contributions on the court; Roy has the potential to be a great 6th man.

One big advantage I haven’t seen covered is the new rule that non-tax paying teams only have to match salaries in a trade at 150% plus $5 million. My understanding is this goes into effect immediately in year 1 of the new CBA. Tax paying teams have a much stricter 115% plus $100k salary matching requirement just as in the old CBA. Thus cutting Roy now could put the Blazers into a better position to make a substantial trade acquisition.

If the Blazers wait a year to cut Roy and he struggles teams would not bid as high of a salary during the amnesty waivers. Right now there is a lot of interest in adding Roy at a reasonable salary and Paul Allen will be able to save the entire amount of the blind contract bid. If other NBA teams see Roy perform poorly for another season teams may drastically cut the amount they are willing to bid to claim Roy from amnesty waivers.

I’ll be sad to see Roy go but the more objectively I look at the pros and cons the more I lean toward strongly believing Paul will cut him.

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

I wonder how much (if at all) the Twitter backlash will affect Allen's thinking. He might have hoped to avoid full blame for it (although you would need a FUCKING GM to really dodge the blame) but that hope has been resoundingly dashed. He's got to know that his name will be mud if Roy gets waived. He might even get booed in the Rose Garden. Hell, I'd boo him. (Rational? No. Reasonable? No. But then neither is being a fan of any team, least of all the Blazers.)

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

Yes that could potentially be a huge con. In the short term many fans will be angry. But after a few months I think sentiment is dependent on how Roy performs elsewhere. If he is one of the top couple players on another roster fans will be continue to be pissed. It could be much worse then Jermaine O’Neal. But if Roy is a diminished injured previously great all-star, such as Penny Hardaway, Gilbert Arenas, Steve Francis, I think fans will come to largely accept the move was for the betterment of the team.

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

nice summary, thanks

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

These two are the bottom line for me. Having the full MLE instead of the mini would greatly improve the quality of FAs we can target. Plus the extra flexibility of not being over the cap will be huge at the trade deadline when we have Camby's contract to offer up in deals.

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

I agree with you. I just think Roy has one or two more great season's left in him; which will almost guarantee that any move will have a good player on another squad. At least for a couple years. There will be a lot of pressure on management during that time.

Also, Roy has a heart of a champion. I doubt anyone in this forum would disagree. Unfortunately his knees gave out on him. Because of that; I suspect Roy to give it his all to prove to Blazer Brass and the rest of the world that he should still be mentioned as one of the top guards in the NBA.

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

Great seasons like last year? He is only going to get worse as the knee deteriorates

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

Last year, he shouldn't have ever came back. Last year only proves his heart and wanting to be on the court. This season... He had all summer and an extended lock out to give a good year. I guess we can wait and see.

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

On another note. As a businessman; I would agree that waiving Roy is a better "Decision". But the NBA isn't like any other business. There is a huge "Emotional" attachment to players, teams and fans. So you must take that into consideration as well. Almost like a band. You have the people that listen to "popular music" just because they like music. Then you have those "fans" that follow the band around; watching any show, video, etc. they can get just to keep their fascination going.

I doubt anyone in here would disagree that Roy is arguably the most "liekable" player on this team.

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

What a maudlin bunch (many) Blazers fans are.

In a league dominated by free agency, root for the laundry people!

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

Who knows if we'll even use the full MLE. Didn't we just use part of the MLE not to long back? The mini might be all we need.

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

I have a feeling the difference between the mini (up to $3 mil for 3 years) and the normal MLE (four years startling at $5 mil) is going to be huge. It will be difference between getting a solid FA like Carl Landry instead of scrub like Shannon Brown.

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

least its not another brandon roy post

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

That makes sense. At least if you have the normal MLE you are more flexible.

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

Are you sure about having the full MLE if we use amnesty on Roy?

Maybe that won't workout. We still hold rights to players like Oden, and aren't there cap holds, etc?

I don't think we can answer this question until the CBA to be ratified comes out.

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

There still isn't a definitive word on this. Dwight Jaynes just said the Blazers would be under the cap, but the Oregonian said otherwise. From Dwight's blog:

"By the same token, the free agency period starts at the same time as training camp and if the Blazers want to be able to use the full mid-level exception, they need to jettison Roy's contract to get them under the luxury tax base. Any delay in that might cost them a shot at the free agent they want. This is the biggest argument against waiting to see Roy play for a season before using the clause on him."

http://www.csnnw.com/pages/dwightjaynes/

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

I have to agree with Draco on this.

The new system of bidding on a waived player is going to be tested this year, lots of teams have interest in Roy, and his value may be as high as it ever will because of the available monies, the need for players and Roys stellar performance in the playoffs.

I dont want to see the Blazers give Roy "one more year" and prove to the league that he will never be the same, and lose all of the advantages currently in place.

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

Good point. Lets not make the mistake with Roy that we made with Rudy by holding on to him too long while his value took a nosedive.

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

Yes we will have the full MLE if we cut Roy, our salary would be at $66 million with Greg's $13 million cap hold (his cap hold is ~$4 million more then the qualifying offer). If you add in Roy's $15 million salary we would be near $80 million and unable to use the full MLE.

 

Re: Pros and Cons to cutting Roy; overlooked trade benefits & higher waiver reimburse

Fan backlash is a two-edged sword, so it should be listed on both sides. There will be backlash over gumming up our ability to sign people. Think of the years of backlash over signing Darius Miles.