Here's my take: Last year was a gimme for Lacob/Gruber. Too late to do anything, stuck with Smart as an interim coach, trading time over, draft pick already made. Now, full offseason (at least admin/exec wise) with fully loaded front office (Myers/West) and coach (Jackson). They need to start over with Curry and Udoh. Yes, that means "see you later" to Lee and Monta. (Ratto said if they are serious with West, they amnesty Lee; I really doubt such an extreme move but you never now.) Dorell is a valuable player but he's a limited spot up shooter who cannot create on his own while a very good defender. Keeping the status quo is going to be very disappointing. Mark it down, NENE is another sign that they try to make a splash but ultimately fail because he's not an elite talent who is going to take any team anywhere but the early playoffs. He'll just give you a quick jolt of publicity but then you're saddled with that killing any other moves (hello David Lee contract). Save the $15M/yr for someone with a true impact.
What's up everyone, glad that we actually have a season to bitch about this year haha. Hope everyone enjoyed their extended offseason. I haven't really taken time to school myself on the nuances of the new CBA. As I understand it, this amnesty thing allows you to get rid of any player, along with their contract? I guess Lee would be the obvious first choice in that case. I wouldn't say that he doesn't make an impact, because he definitely does...I just don't think he's a great value on his current contract. I don't think anybody is going to let W's management convince them that he's the answer to our frontcourt problems. He's absolutely not, so I guess if you have an opportunity to take a mulligan on that one, you might as well. But to be honest, I'll miss his rebounding...and it'll be hard to find another big man with is passing skills. What about Biedrins though? Sure, he's got less years on his contract than Lee, and he gets paid less...but nobody is going to take Andris in a trade right now. We just might be able to move Lee. I have been a HUGE advocate of Andris over the years, but if last season is an indicator of things to come, he's gotta go. Nobody else is really an option. As far as Monta, my stance hasn't changed since last season. There's not many people in the NBA getting $11m/yr that are outperforming him...if we can upgrade, lets do it...but that's way easier said than done. I'm cool with the Iguodala idea, but that doesn't look like it'll happen. I just remember some times last season where the offense got VERY stagnant with Monta on the bench. Anyway, here's to an exciting season!
Glad to be back! I'm not to sure on this but isn't Lacob the one who was pushing for Cohan to get David Lee? I heard he's a huge fan of his and likes his game but I could be wrong. Also a lot of rumors going on about Monta for Rudy Gay, and Warriors making an attempt to get Nene and Brandon Roy
I just read something that said we are going for Tyson Chandler as well. Very intriguing. We already have $7m of cap space...even if we used the amnesty on Charlie Bell that would give us almost enough for one of these (semi) big names out there (around $11m). However, I'd rather save it up and throw $18m/yr at Howard.
Chandler would be a good fit next to Lee. It's too bad you couldn't combine them as one player. Lee's offense and Chandler's defense!
The thing with Lee is he may be tradeable. For all of our complaints about him hes still a pretty decent big man and teams are desperate for those. As for using the amnesty or not, I'm a bit torn. If we have about 7 mil of cap room right now then getting rid of Lee bumps that to almost 20 million no? Next year's FA class is more top heavy but not as deep. And I don't think we'll be a factor in the CP3, Deron, or Dwight sweepstakes. With 20 million we could probably overpay Chandler/Nene on a frontloaded deal AND still sign another decent mid-level type player. I suppose that leaves us starting Udoh at the 4... but if we still avoided Chandler/Nene then what could we afford? How much will David West and Landry go for? What if you sign West for 4 years, 40 million starting at 8 mil a year and then you've got 12 mil left to try and sign DeAndre Jordan? or use the 12 mil to sign two players- some combination of a journeyman C (Dalembert/Przybilla/Kwame Brown/Hawes/Ajinca/Hayes) and then a wing player who can either start at SF or provide scoring and defense off the bench (Caron Butler, Tayshaun Prince, Shane Battier, Grant Hill, DeShawn Stevenson, James Jones, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (R), Von Wafer, etc.). That sounds pretty solid to me, especially if all of the above FA are on cheap or easily-movable deals. Compare that to next season when you have Paul/Deron/Dwight and then a bunch of fading stars in KG/Duncan/Kidd/Ray Allen/Billups/Andre Miller/Elton Brand/Steve Nash/Camby and then Felton/Hinrich/Diaw/Jason Terry/Chris Kaman/Okur are your next best group. I don't think we could lure any of the top 3 here and I don't see most of that mid-2000's all-star team there leaving their clubs to sign with us. My dream scenario, aside from landing Nene on a ~12 mil/year deal, would be to amnestize Lee, sign David West to a 4/40 deal, and then sign DeAndre Jordan. Jordan is an RFA but we're dealing with the Clippers and I believe they're somewhat limited as far as being close to the lux tax. Is 12 mil a year for 4 years enough to pry him from the Clips? Is it too much to pay for him? I wonder if a 3 year deal might make more sense for both sides. He may want more annually but probably no one is giving him that. If we gave him 42 mil over 3 years maybe he'd rather make the 14 mil/year over that time and then he'd be up for another fat contract at age 26 and then one last one by age 30/31. 14 mil/year is a lot to pay him but I'd be ok with it over 3 years (one being a lockout reduced season to boot). This wold leave us with Steph/Monta/Dorell/West/Jordan with a bench of Lin/Jenkins, Reggie, Klay, Udoh, Biedrins.
Shit, if we could get Jordan and West that would be awesome...I'd take that over Chandler by himself. But like you said, those two are gonna be over $20m/yr, that's a lot of cash. Especially considering that neither guy is really elite at their respective position. I have been very interested with Jordan for a while now. Granted, the most I've seen of him is against the W's...and let's be honest, we make any half decent frontcourt player look like a beast. Anyway, $14m is a lot for him...especially when I was thinking that's not too far off what we'd be paying Chandler.
Jordan is an above average guy but $12-14M? No. West is coming back from an injury and on the way down. You're paying as if he's going up when he's on the way down. Bad facts. His max was with Paul in '09. Think Boozer, but without the name and Duke pedigree. That's what you're going to get. A glorified jump shooter who gets 80% of his rebounds on FTs.
Realistically, guys rarely get paid what they "should" get paid. And we're still the Golden State Warriors. IMO we'd have to pay up for any decent FA. I reckon paying both those guys that kind of money is enough to land them, which is where I got the figures from. Realistically, West is worth ~7-8 mil a year given his age, injury history, etc etc. Jordan is worth probably 10 when factoring in potential but as far as actual production hes not even worth that. The idea for Jordan is that hes a 23 y/o who has only been able to play limited minutes until now. You hope he continues to get better and if you get lucky he turns into a top 10 C that you then have the rights to for his next deal. Of course 12-14 is overpaying but we have to overpay to get him; hes an RFA, hes young, hes a big man, you know the rest. A lot of what you'd pay for is the gamble of whether he becomes a 14/12 C with good defense. I'm ok with gambling on him for that money if its a 3 year deal, and somewhat less annually if its a 4 year deal. You just don't get talented big men outside the draft unless you overpay for them. To me it just comes down to would you rather overpay for Chandler or Jordan? Chandler is 29, coming off one good season after a few seasons of obscurity, hes got an injury history and hes a guy who relies on athleticism to be effective. I don't trust Jordan any more than I do Chandler but he is 23, was producing last season, and could develop into a good C for the next 7-10 years. If Chandler takes 14-16 mil a year to sign but DeAndre only takes 12 then who do you pick? I'd go with Jordan. I bring West up because if we were to amnesty Lee then we're back to being without a PF in addition to our hole at C. He seems like a perfect stop gap target who could come at a good price (I used 10 mil/year to sound somewhat realistic, hes worth ~8 mil/year IMO but to get him in GS it may cost more). If you amnesty Lee and sign West at 8 mil/year then you have pretty much the same production at PF and you bump your cap room from ~7 mils to ~13 mils or more- depending how you structure West's deal- which puts you in the Nene/Chandler/whoever you want sweepstakes. If you amnesty Beans and keep Lee you're still stuck with Lee until 2016 when he'll be making 15.4 million. Again, to me its a decision of would you rather have Lee at 11.6, 12.8, 13.9, 15, and 15.5 million each year or West at roughly 7, 8, 9, 10? I'd go with the older guy here in the name of not crippling the cap and giving us less of a commitment should Tyler, Udoh, or some other PF option emerge. From what I saw in 2010-11, West may be an upgrade over Lee anyway though I'll give Lee the benefit of the doubt.
How good are West and Jordan, defensively? I see last year West averaged a block and a steal a game, and Jordan right around 2 blocks a game. Both had 7 boards a game.
I'd say west is an average defender. Not much of a shotblocker but not as much a sieve all around as David Lee. Disregarding their listed heights and weights I'd say West is heavier and stronger. Lee is the better rebounder but I think as a team our rebounding wouldn't drop off if you swapped West for Lee. Jordan is a presence protecting the rim but obviously hes young and makes mistakes. His 7.2 rpg came in less than 26 mpg. Dunno about his on-ball defense but I think hes decent. Both are upgrades defensively over Lee and Beans respectively IMO. Anyway that whole scenario is pretty far fetched. It seems like most think it wise not to amnesty anyone this season and see how this shortened season plays out with Mark Jackson at the helm. Early rumors say the W's are extremely interested in Tyson Chandler. All of the Nene rumors have dissipated. Some Chris Paul rumors here and there based mostly around the fact that we could give NOH Curry in exchange. I will expect no big splashes this (shortened) offseason. Wouldn't mind if they used that spare 6-7 mil on a nice gamble FA reminiscent of our Dorell Wright signing. I would be stoked to get Caron Butler, Shane Battier, Tayshaun Prince, or AK47 on a reasonable deal.
They're reporting that the Clips offered him $40m over 5 years....I'd be cool with giving him $45-50 over 5.... http://tracking.si.com/2011/12/06/report-clippers-offer-deandre-jordan-5-year-40-million-deal/
With Jordan, there's the Blake Griffin buddy factor as well. I don't see the Clips letting him go. I do not see the W's letting Lee go via amnesty ($11M gone) then paying West $8-10M for nearly the same thing. Its not like he'd be a huge upgrade and you're paying a total of $19M for that. West will get a 3 yr deal. Chandler may be the best bet. He's not only athletic but he plays good position D as well. I like how he goes up with two straight arms just to make you shoot over him while he's not trying to actually block the shot.
I wouldn't take that bet at his asking price. Word is the Mavs won't go above 12 mil/year. If it takes 13+ mil/year I would avoid that deal. Chandler is nice but he doesn't put us over the top and he is at his absolute peak in value right now with nowhere to go but down.
