I ran some player comparisons of different three point gunners through their second year, focusing on what are now probably considered late-starters (between 22-26 by the second year). Bruce Bowen, Ray Allen, Redd, Hinrich, Steve Kerr. These are cumulative, including first and second season. Of the 6 guys, Matthews ranked: 3pt%: 3rd 3pt attempts: 3rd Minutes played: 3rd Points per 36 minutes: 3rd (ahead of Bowen and Kerr, tied with Hinrich) PER: 3rd (ahead of Bowen/Hinrich/Kerr) I wasn't trying to cherry pick data here. He just consistently appears in third place on the list. The PER's of none of these guys save for Redd (19.6) are all that remarkable--2nd best was Ray Allen at 15.5. (FWIW, here are the other guys in their third seasons. The thing that stands out the most to me is that every one of these guys saw a 8-18% rise in their PER in that third year. Not astronomical, but substantial.) I think Matthews is a better defender than any of these guys except for Bowen and possibly Hinrich. I've always thought of him over the last year as a Doug Christie-type, but more aggressive shooting (and worse passing). But that may be selling him a little short. With a more featured role in our offense and more defined minutes in the rotation (ie, not wondering if Roy is going to take his job at any minute) things look good for him. He was a 17ppg/.420 three point shooter as a starter last year. That's more scoring than Christie ever had. If he takes an 8-18% leap in PER this season, he's going to rise from "decent role player" into maybe the third best player on this team. I've seen his name chucked in with trade ideas as though he's just another Babbit or Armon Johnson. It kind of surprises me how quickly guys want to trade him. His passing stinks and his handle isn't great, but that stuff is a little overstated on this board. If you disagree, just look at Bruce Bowen's numbers if you want to see a true one-dimension-offense player. Sure, he doesn't have a lightening-fast release and he was ho-hum in the playoffs, but remember--it was his second season. This guy has been underrated and overlooked in the draft. And really by two franchises (Utah in letting him go, and Portland in benching him early in the season over a crippled Roy). Count me out on that. With Roy out, a healthy ankle, Aldridge and Gerald creating all kinds of problems underneath, and Felton spacing the floor better, I'm looking for Nate to give Wes the green light to fire at will this year. And I'm looking for an 18ppg year that firmly establishes him as a guy who can be overlooked no more.
He has shown signs of having a mid range jumper. But my hope is he worked hard on it over the off season. We know he is has the three point set shot down, but when players are rushing out at him, it would be nice if he could step in and nail the 15-18 footer jumper. Same for Batum. I think they both have the potential to do so, but both could be a little better. Maybe a little better at the floater in the lane too. He gets to the basket pretty well, but the times he pulls up short he has no "money shot".
Amen! When he's on, he can't miss. I'd like to see him be a little more consistent and less streaky. Either way, I'm glad that he will be starting instead of Roy and I agree with the 18 points per game.
Matthews will struggle mightily this year. I think he and his coach will have him do too much on the floor.
Why this year over last? Last year when he played well while Roy was out, he didn't have Wallace or Felton to play with. What is it about this year that will change? Especially if Batum steps up.
[video=youtube;75j-EyyMXog]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75j-EyyMXog[/video] Dude is soo streaky. But he's a hard worker and can expand his game. People often don't realize that he will only be entering his third season this year.
First off, nice research! Wes amazed me last year honestly. I know he was kinda forced into that roll. But if LA is getting doubled every touch, Wes should be as wide open as he was last season. He and Nic need to connect from downtown for us to succeed this year!
Like a lot of players in all sports, once teams have a year to scout you it makes a difference. Matthews was ok in Utah, but blew up in Portland. Teams will more than likely take LA and Matthews out of the offense and make Wallace beat them. IMO Wes will struggle with this because he has never dealt with it before.
I guess I agree to an extent because in another post I said he needs to improve his mid range jumper. (and floater) I like Wes but is no "go to guy". He certainly can not create his own shot like BRoy could. Same problem Rudy had. But as long as Wes plays within himself and keeps working hard to get open then he will not take a step backwards. His success comes from his relentless hustle. They can scout him all they want, but they can't stop that if he is healthy.
I disagree. If they have solid 3 point % then we will be sitting pretty high. All of those layers are very streaky. If they become consistent than look fucking out. Lma will have a field day down low.
Actually, he was 7th in three pointers made, but tied for 12th in attempts. Every single player above him in attempts had a sub-.400 percentage on threes (Matthews shot .407). Just from that it seems like he should be letting them fly more.
Wouldn't you kind of expect Matthews to be third out of that group? There's two good players (Allen and pre-injury Redd) and a bunch of poor-to-mediocre players.
Wes was okay I kinda guess in Utah. He only started all 82 games on a playoff team as an undrafted free agent for a coach that hates rookies.... That year doesn't count, scouts forgot about that year. Atleast thats what your scout friend tells you, right?
Hopefully Wes and Nate work harder at getting him coming off screens more. I'd like to see him used more like Rudy was, except that Rudy tended to miss a lot after getting open. He's not a guy who can break ankles off the dribble, but he is a high-energy guy who can have fun running guys around. I wonder if that aspect wasn't really focused on last year because of the bad ankle.
you are misunderstanding, i agree 100%. out of the lot of volume 3pt shooters, he is one of the best, i went over this extensively in my "wes mathews is an amazing 3pt shooter" thread
