There's trouble in Camelot (along the front line)

A handful of beat writers have commented on how there is tension between the Bulls starting front court and Thibodeau.

Says Mark Schanowski of WSCR:

Likewise, Sam Smith, the Bulls own beat writer, has made similar comments:

This situation has the possibility of going south. There are real problems with the design of the Bulls that create concerns for the team's roster. The new collective bargaining agreement has essentially destabilized the franchise.

-- The new CBA has created a structure that destroys teams that are built on depth, like OKC and Chicago, while being relatively favorable for teams built around two or three stars, like the Heat. The Bulls aren't going to be able to pick up Korver, Brewer and CJ Watson's options for next season while still resigning Asik. And even if the Bulls can resign Asik, they're not going to be able to resign Gibson the following season. The Bulls are on a one year plan and almost all of the players are vying for the opportunity to remain in their home city.

-- Noah's and Boozer's contracts are both complicit in creating salary structure issues. Both of them have played fairly well in stretches but neither are playing regular starter minutes. I can't criticize Thibodeau for playing match ups. You play to win the games, and he's done a brilliant job of shuffling lineups this season. Sam Smith's comments about the starters being benched seem juvenile to me after watching European ball this past season where starting carries very little cache. Each front court player has their own strengths and weaknesses.

The problem for Noah and Boozer, though, is that neither can be assured they are sticking around past this season because of their limited minutes. Noah is no doubt worried about trades and Boozer, let's hope, is a candidate to be amnestied at some point in his contract.

-- Finally, and this hasn't been discussed, I have to give John Paxson a giant kick in the balls for not-so-covertly stumping for Dwight Howard. Is Howard a brilliant player? Yes. Would he bring stability to a franchise that has an untenable cap situation? Yes. Is he coming to Chicago? No. That's the end of the story.

How can anyone expect Noah to be comfortable with a more limited role when his general manager is trying to create buzz about a trade for him? The front office has made matters considerably worse through their heavy handed approach to the Dwight Howard situation.

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My point is simple. The only players who are assured any continuity are Derrick Rose and Luol Deng. All of the rest of the members of the roster are both in precarious contractual situations and fighting for minutes and attention. Thibodeau is coaching well and shuffling lineups to target match ups, but that doesn't help put minds at ease. The front office is only elevating the specter of uncertainty.

None of this bodes well for team chemistry if the Bulls lose a couple of games, which they undoubtedly will at some point in the season. I'm more than a little worried about where the Bulls will be when the playoffs ultimately roll around.

 

None of the Bulls' forwards and centers are playing well. Period. Is it the players? Past performance says otherwise.

It's the schemes.

 

Damn, SST, I really try to pay attention to these sort of things and I've heard nothing from the Bulls front office in terms of chasing Howard covertly or overtly. I mean, we all imagine that they'd be very interested, I'd question their sanity if they weren't, but what exactly are you kicking Paxson in the balls for?

I respect your opinion, but to me you're reaching to move the blame anywhere but the players.

 

Here's a gem from the comments section of the Sam Smith blog post:

Well no surprise about the Boozer bashing. But Lucas did not even attempt a pass to Boozer the 1st 8 minutes of the game. You gots to feed the dog! I gotta lay this on Thibodeau to find a way to make the guards pass to Boozer and get Boozer involved.

 

Maybe if you base your opinion strictly on PER. The Bulls are 2nd in the whole damn league in defense. It is simply not possible to be this good on defense when none of your frontcourt players are playing well.

More blame shifting. As you pointed out in another thread just 2 games ago, Boozer was looking like he should get all star consideration. Did the schemes suddenly change? No, Boozer just had a couple off games.

I don't know what's wrong with Noah, but he acknowledges that he's not playing well and has to step it up. So much of Noah's game is based on passion/energy, but this has been lacking. Only he can bring it back.

It's OK to say that good players aren't playing well without rushing to provide them with excuses that absolve them of all responsibility for their poor play.

I've seen some things on the defensive end from Boozer this season that were lacking last year. I'm feeling pretty good about him. I also think Noah will come around.

 

I think you both are misreading the intent of my post. My point is that the Bulls' roster is volatile and unsustainable in a way that it hasn't ever been perhaps in franchise history, at least since I can remember. I'm not placing blame, besides a quick swipe at Paxson for escalating the situation.

I actually think the bigs are doing well. Asik is playing great and is a much better rebounder than he was last season. Taj is rounding into form and I think his post game is improved. Noah is taking a lot of crap but he's still hustling and I've liked his defense, even with what I'm convinced is another hand injury. Boozer is fine and his numbers are consistent with the rest of his career when adjusted for minutes -- I'm not pleased but let's not get bogged down with this. The bigs are doing well and that's part of the reason the Bulls have been able to put up an amazing record even with an incredibly brutal schedule. The whole team is playing well, and this is without Rip.

Again, my point is that the roster is not financially sustainable and this very well could lead to a fragile team. Transplant, you're right, I may be underestimating the professionalism of the roster. But I tend to think that people are people and that when you put them in a situation where (a) they feel the need to draw attention and perform because they don't have security; and (b) their minutes are constrained because of team depth, it is potentially a recipe for disaster.

Mark Schanowski seems to think there's tension this season between Boozer and Noah despite the teams' winning ways. This is why there would be tension between our bigs, and really every other player on the roster besides Deng and Rose.

Transplant, my grievance with Paxson and Howard is that D12 has made it explicitly clear that he isn't interested in Chicago. Nonetheless, Sam Smith has written two articles that argue for Chicago as a destination. Both of these articles occurred when no national media was mentioning Chicago as a potential landing spot, because it's not. It seemed to me that Smith was forcing the issue on behalf of the franchise, a take that was agreed with by Bill Simmons (he mentioned in a podcast that Chicago was trying to leak to anyone who would listen that Howard may come to the Bulls even though he has shown no interest.)

The John Paxson comments from the radio interview were my confirmation: "All you do is keep trying, and we certainly will." When you have a volatile roster that may have to undergo large changes in the off season that's not a great way to show confidence in your players.

 

We haven't seen enough of Rip to judge what the team can really do, but...

Our hopes of winning a championship still means we have to get by the Heat. Atlanta, too - we realistically could be 0-2 against them.

I don't like our chances of doing it with Taj and Asik and getting poor play from Noah and our all-star caliber PF not getting PT or the ball passed to him. The defense is great, but you still have to score more points than the opponent. We've been amazing on defense at home, especially, against the likes of Memphis, Detroit, and Washington. In the fourth home game, Atlanta held us to 15, 11, and 16 points through the first three quarters. We overcame an 18 point lead by scoring 34 points in the fourth quarter, while Atlanta scored 18 (and 18 in the quarter before that and 15 in the quarter before that).

We may be more blessed by our depth than actual quality play. Taj and Asik get a lot of credit for the defense, as they should, but they also are well rested and playing against opposing teams' starters who've played all game. Between 'em, they have 12 fouls to give, basically, too.


I'm not blame shifting at all. When Boozer, Noah, Taj, Asik, and Deng all have underperformed our expectations (based on past performance), all play the same positions (Forward/C), then maybe it is something to be concerned about.

 

I have to add that it is total lunacy to expect the Bulls to amnesty anyone. There is no fiscal sense to such a move, and as much as people seem to think we'll pay the luxury tax, there's little reason to expect it. Period.

Cutting Boozer or Noah would be an 8-figure hit to the bottom line.

I'm resolved to this fact, so my attitude is that we are better off getting the most from the players we do have.

 

SST, while I don't put much stock in the Smith and Simmons things, if you heard Paxson saying that the team would keep trying to trade for Howard, then I understand why the groin kick. I don't think it deserves any sort of kick, but you're more sensitive to players' feelings than I am.

Denny, I agree that fans are much more keen on using the amnesty provision than Bulls management is likely to be. As for paying some LT next season, we're on the record - I think they will and you think they won't. I assume your reasoning centers on the team's LT history. Mine centers on my faith in Reinsdorf to pay in order to sustain excellence. We'll see where we're at this November.

 

transplant,

My expectation is that if the Bulls can do a salary dump, they'd strongly consider it. Otherwise, they're likely to believe that they can pick up guys like Lucas III or draft picks for near minimum type salaries to stand around and watch Rose win games

 

That's about what I figured Denny.

I think a lot depends on what the team does this season. My position is that, if they play like the elite team I believe them to be, there won't be any salary dump.

 

Right, but their thinking has to be that Asik, Taj, Brewer, Watson, and Korver are NOT elite players and can easily be replaced. They got them the first time, kinda bottom of the barrel players as unsigned FAs. It's not like the other teams with lots of cap space (Knicks, Clippers, etc.) created some sort of demand for them.

Taj is a #29 pick in the draft. The Bulls have #29's coming now and in the future... Asik was a 2nd round pick (#36) who has turned out nice enough.

Get players who'll play defense on rookie contracts and we're set forever.

 

I think the max we could pay Omer is $5M, thanks to the new Arenas rule in this CBA. Is that in your calculation?

 

I could see Korver going away...he's getting minutes now because Hamilton's injured, but he's pretty much the odd man out. If they end up really liking Butler, they may let Brewer walk. I think they'll keep Watson @$3mil...that's pretty good value IMO.

Gibson stays cheap for next season so he'll probably be back. I can see them drafting a defensive-minded PF in the next draft in hopes that lightning will strike twice for them. Asik is restricted after this season and other teams can't offer more than the MLE for the first two seasons of a new contract. My guess is what the Bulls will do on Asik will depend on Asik's play this season...and to a lesser extent, on Noah's play this season.

Just guesses, but what the hell.

 

I think Korver is the gem of this season. Without his points, we maybe lose 3-4 more games. He finishes games, too. At the offensive end, he's been outplaying Deng - he's been that good.

Our bench really is not very well balanced. Maybe bringing Booz in as 6th man and actually designing plays to take advantage of his skills might work.

 

These are fair points but I'm laboring under the position that Asik is not easily replaceable and that the team will have to shake quite a bit up to retain him. Transplant, remember that the Arenas-scale only effects the offer the Bulls can make and not other teams' offers. Other franchises can offer Asik any veteran free agent contract that they like. The Bulls can only offer a contract that follows the Arenas scale because they will be over the cap.

The Bulls can backload a contract to retain Asik. Let's say another team offers him 8 million per for four years. The Bulls could offer a contract that goes something like 5, 5.4, 10.6, 11. The problem with this, of course, is that you're going to have to give up assets in a salary dump to move Asik after two years. And why would Asik sing a deal with the Bulls when he knows he's going to be traded?

Asik is all but gone, or the Bulls are going to have to move a bunch of pieces to keep him.

 

The Arenas-scale affects the offer ANY team can make. The whole point is for a team to not be put in a position like GSW was when they lost Arenas.

https://webfiles.uci.edu/lcoon/cbafaq/salarycap.htm#Q38

The worst case is someone offers Asik $5M, $5.4M, and a huge jump in season 3 (to as much as $14M). To make it tougher on another team to sign him, the average of the contract (e.g. $55M/5 years = $11M) has to fit in that team's cap situation. But not for the Bulls, who can use the MLE to match.

 

Thanks. I was just looking it up and, yup, I was wrong. My misunderstanding doesn't change much though. If a team is willing to offer Asik a contract thats third year is 10 million and up what are the chances that the Bulls will match? Perhaps teams will be reticent to make Asik an offer that balloons because it's so hard to plan around. I doub't it.

Boozer's contract is a killer. I completely agree that an amnesty makes no financial sense for the franchise. If Boozer were to threaten teams not to claim him, as has been the course for many amnestied players, the Bulls could owe Boozer as much as 47.1 million not to play on the team. That's approaching one year of salary for a team toeing the minimum. There's no way Boozer is going to get amnestied but, damnit, I want it to happen. And we deserve it, don't we?

Asik's contract wouldn't balloon until the last year of Boozer's contract so maybe there's some way Reinsdorf would consider writing off the last 16.8 million (crap that's a lot of money).