Is he an outright bust, or is he someone who will turn into a serviceable player? The Glass Half Empty view: He was a four-year college player under a coach who also coaches the USA team. If he's not ready after that, he never will be. He showed himself to be a step slow, and an unreliable shooter, and missing in PG skills. What, exactly, could he do? What does he offer a team that a D-League player-of-the-week wouldn't? The Glass Half Full view: PG is the hardest position to learn. Chauncey Billups is a tired comparison and pretty much unique, but Nolan has actually shown that he can improve greatly over time. When he arrived at Duke he was a bit of a disappointment (losing his job to Elliott Williams) but he grew into it, and eventually put up similar numbers to Kyrie Irving after Irving went down. He'll never be an ideal PG, but Jarrett Jack has carved out a similar career (Jack also didn't play PG in college - Will Bynum did) and Jack had his best season last year. And look at Jeremy Lin - where was he his rookie year? Nolan's obviously a great kid. You want him to succeed. Will he? Will he have to bounce around first, maybe even overseas?
Nolan got some good burn. He's not a starter and barely a backup. He could be a deep bench player who can fill in and contribute.
I like the point you brought up that it took Smith time to learn how to be effective in college. Still don't think he will amount to anything more than a backup PG (there is nothing shameful about that). But I think at best he is a back up PG and currently he is a not even a back up and more of a project PG.
I am glad the Blazers didn't finish in the top half of the playoff teams so that they had the opprtunity to draft Smith.
Is he really a bust when most analysts didn't expect much from him? He was supposed to be a 2nd rounder. We decided to overdraft and select him for some unknown reason.
He looks to be that guy who you keep on the end of your bench that can fill in at either guard position in case of a rash of injuries. But it is still early. We certainly have been wrong before about young players. I doubt it but in his defense he had absolutely no summer league, limited fall camp and pre-season, and no in season practices. So there still is a chance he will improve into a solid back up.
He's the perfect example of why Chad Buchanan and his staff need to be fired. Since 2001 we've only had just a small handful (Randolph, Roy, Aldridge, Batum) out of A LOT of draft picks to pan out. Hell, David Kahn looks like a young Jerry West compared to Buchanan when it comes to evaluating talent. When you're a small market you have to build through the draft and with our scouts track record we're going to be in this purgatory for as long as they are with the team.
Late first round guys are always a crap-shoot, but you hope to be able to at least get an "in the rotation" kind of guy. He doesn't even look like a regular contributor to me. So he's not a "bust" in the classic blown lotto pick sense, but he's definitely a swing and a miss.
Cringe worthy stats: 6.9 PER -0.5 WS The last rookie PG we took in the first round with that low of a PER: Sebastian Telfair (age: 19): 9.7 PER -0.4 WS
I think, at best, he'll be a backup PG. He just doesn't seem to have "it" for a good NBA player. Nice little player for college but just deficient in all areas for the NBA.
He reminds me of Juan Dixon, and undersized combo-guard who can score. Not that Juan Dixon is a compliment. I think he'll be a good Euro-league player, but is a borderline nba player.
It would seem to me that making judgments about rookies after one season is a bit premature, particularly at the PG spot.
If he were younger, more athletic and more raw then I'd completely agree. But ... I dunno, I'm not ready to declare TOD, but the breathing is shallow and the pulse thready.
I agree with this. He is halfway decent as a SG when he has Flynn as distributor (or probably anyone besides Felton and Crawford). And he is not bad as a PG.
BUST! He is a SG who is nowhere near better than Matthews (who should be a SG coming off the bench) and Elliot Williams.... So great, POR drafted at best a 3rd string SG, b\c you know every team needs one of those, right? He'll be 4th string when (if) POR drafts Lamb, Beal or Rivers...or signs a free agent...
Yeah, it only took nearly an entire decade and it's still debatable if he's considered average, even as a backup.
