They have to pay the luxury tax. Who's going to go? Korver? Brewer? I think both are quality and key players who contributed a lot to our success the past two seasons.
I think this is put up or shut up time for The Chairman. I think this squad, if healthy, could have threatened to go all the way. No sure thing, mind you, but no team is a sure thing. I've spent a lot of time defending Reinsdorf but now is the time if ever there was a time to put the wallet where the mouth is.
Reinsdorf will pay some LT next season, but that doesn't mean that everyone will be coming back. My guess is that GarPax will see if they can get anything out of Korver, Brewer and/or Watson in trade, possibly in combination with Asik. If not, they may keep Watson, particularly if they believe that his second-half dropoff was due to nagging injuries. They may keep Korver if they can't find anyone to take on his role better and/or more cheaply. I believe that they'll install Butler in Brewer's role next season. Asik's an up-in-the-air kind of thing. Thibodeau likes him and he should...he's a helluva defensive presence and Thibs loves him his defense. Lots of fans say that guys like Asik are a dime a dozen and I've consistently disagreed. God, I love watching him play D (O not so much). Still, there are limits to what you pay a guy who gets on the court less than 15 mpg. Personally, Gibson impressed the shit out of me in the Philly series. The term "step up" is way overused, but that's what he did. In the last 3 games, I thought he was the best big man on either team. I'm a longtime fan/defender, but I didn't know he could do the David Banner-Hulk thing when his team's back was against the wall. I hope that Garpax saw the same thing I did and that they try to sign Gibson to a mutually-advantageous extension this offseason.
I've been high on Taj since the day he was drafted. I googled what clips I could and he really impressed me.
I absolutely don't like Asik as a starting C. As a reserve getting 12 minutes a game, he's very good for us. The reason people say guys like him are a dime a dozen is you can get by with even a Kurt Thomas type for 12 minutes and do OK. But as a staring C, the turnovers and lack of FT shooting would kill us. I like Taj a lot, but as a reserve also. Of course we could do a lot worse, but I seriously doubt we'd have been as close vs. Philly with him starting. He got a lot of his stats against 2nd units, but he came on strong in the playoffs for us.
I think the Bulls are likely to prioritize Asik and let go of Brewer/Korver/Brewer if it allows them to get underneath the tax. Asik's D is just darn unique. When I think about guys who can defend the paint as well or better than he can my list looks like this: 1). Dwight Howard 2). Tyson Chandler 3). ????? Our 3 backcourt bench players, while useful, are all more replaceable. You can probably dig through the garbage heap and find 3 guys who do similar things and save 8 million/year or so. If that gets the Bulls beneath the LT, my guess is they do it.
The playoff series was notable for me for the full emergence of Taj Gibson. I'm done supporting Boozer, and I think that has as much to do with Gibson's play as Boozer's subpar playoff performance. I'm not committed to either Brewer or Korver. Korver in particular had a great regular season, but if he's not going to be able to get his shot off in the playoffs against quick defenses then he's all but worthless.
http://www.nba.com/bulls/news/smith_120514.html?ls=iref:nbahpt2 By Sam Smith | 05.14.2012 | 9:25 a.m. CT | asksam@bulls.com | @SamSmithHoops The big story of the 2011-12 NBA playoffs isn’t the saga of the Heat, or whether the Lakers will survive, or if the Thunder’s time is here, or if the Spurs are really for real. It’s the team that’s gone, the Bulls, the fifth ever No. 1 seed to lose in the first round, though under extraordinary circumstances, given the severe knee injury to Derrick Rose. And then Miami’s struggle Sunday with the Indiana Pacers and losing Chris Bosh for perhaps the rest of the series only further demonstrated what many believed, that the Heat are hardly the lock so many have suggested. But with the Bulls out, it hardly looks like anyone can keep Miami out of the Finals in a playoffs that may not yield another 100 point game. The playoffs are physical, sure, but this is getting ridiculous. Why have a free flowing game that grinds to a halt at the most important time? The NBA is doing itself a major disservice on making its great product, the postseason, virtually unwatchable with the almost unchecked mayhem. Perhaps everyone is tired after the 66-game season in four months. You’d think Pat Riley was still coaching. Anyone seen Anthony Mason? As for the Bulls, there are going to be a lot of hard decisions going forward even assuming Rose does recover well and quickly. One is the payroll, which already is around the projected luxury tax line. Will the Bulls spend into the luxury tax even if they aren’t sure how much of next season Rose can play? Should they? It wouldn’t seem to make sense. The tax is estimated at about $70 million. Here’s a look at next season’s payroll already committed: Derrick Rose $16,402,550 Carlos Boozer $15,000,000 Luol Deng $13,305,000 Joakim Noah $11,300,000 Richard Hamilton $5,000,000 Taj Gibson $2,155,811 Jimmy Butler $1,066,920 $64,230,281 That doesn’t include the team options for Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer and C.J. Watson, which total $12,570,000. And then there’s restricted free agent Omer Asik, whom the Bulls want to retain and might have to match an offer up to $5,000,000. So if the Bulls bring back just this core group, they are well into the luxury tax. Certainly things can change with trades. Maybe someone takes Hamilton’s salary as it is for one year and a small buyout, which could leave room for someone else. You have to be under the salary cap to recruit a top free agent. Even if the Bulls amnesty a player, they would not be far enough under to go for a top free agent. They could use their mid-level exception of about $5 million, but that brings in luxury tax considerations and makes that player cost $10 million, in effect. Currently, the Bulls are third in the NBA behind Miami and barely behind the Lakers for the most payroll committed for next season. Here’s a look at the roster: Derrick Rose: He had his surgery over the weekend and no one can say for sure when he’ll return or how it will work. The estimates range from Christmas to being out all season. Even when Rose returns, the history of ACL injuries is you don’t regain your full level until the following season. Chance to return: 100 percent Joakim Noah: He’ll play in the Olympics for France and his sprained ankle should be fine, though the Bulls believed after he was hurt he’d be out a month. His name will come up in trade rumors (here comes the Dwight Howard stuff again in July), but he’s still the defensive heart of the team. “I personally believe this group can compete against anybody, the Heat, anybody,” said Noah. “Derrick is going to come back. Like Thibodeau always says, ‘We are very privileged people doing what we love to. Let’s go out there, get better this summer. Come back hungrier than ever and make a run.’” Noah was the team’s leading playoff scorer with Rose out, though Noah only played three games. Chance to return: 85 percent Carlos Boozer: It was another disappointing last game. Boozer averaged 13.5 points and 9.8 rebounds on 42 percent shooting in the playoffs. He had a big Game 5 and then poor Game 6. His salary makes him basically untradeable in this new more frugal NBA era and he will not be part of amnesty. “I just want to come back a better player all around, inside and out, offensively and defensively, a better leader. Continue to improve as a player,” said Boozer. Chance to return: 95 percent Luol Deng: He’ll play for England in the Olympics and said he will then decide whether to have surgery to repair his torn wrist ligaments. Deng has been upset people have questioned him playing in the Olympics, given England gave his family shelter from the war in Sudan. If he has surgery, he probably won’t return until December. His name will come up in trade rumors as well, though because of the uncertainty about his surgery, there is less chance of anything happening. Still, he won’t be out that long. He averaged 14 points and 8.3 rebounds in the series with the 76ers, though he had a big final game. Chance to return: 80 percent Richard Hamilton: He was injured more than half the season amidst questions about whether he was pacing himself for the playoffs. He did average 13 points in just 28 minutes as the team leader per 48 minutes other than Rose. But it seemed coach Thibodeau never became comfortable with him after all the regular season time lost and he sat out numerous fourth quarters. Chance to return: 50 percent Taj Gibson: He averaged 9.5 points and 6.5 rebounds in the playoffs, both above his season averages, and displayed the aggressive play that was a team trademark. He is up for an extension and has one more season until he becomes a restricted free agent when he’ll be in high demand. Chance to return: 90 percent Jimmy Butler: The rookie didn’t play much this season and just four minutes in the playoffs. But the Bulls are high on him and have him targeted for the rotation next season off the bench. Chance to return: 95 percent Ronnie Brewer: He had an up and down playoffs, falling out of the rotation one game and then having a big Game 5. He is probably most vulnerable not to have his option picked up, as Butler plays his sort of defensive, hustling game. “Whatever happens, whatever the management does you have to live with and move on. I’ve enjoyed every minute of it here. The fans welcomed me and the team let me play my game. It would be ideal if they brought me back, but if it was my last game as a Bull, I left it all on the floor. I played as hard as I could every night and I hope everyone remembers me for that. They said they’d do everything they possibly can to bring me back. They are men of their word. All I can do is try to get better for next year and help this team out more than I did this year.” Chance to return: 15 percent C.J. Watson: He had a nice season starting 25 games for Rose. He shot a career low from the field, but was good on three pointers. Then he had that disastrous close to Game 6. He shot just 24 percent in the playoffs and 25 percent on threes after almost 40 percent in the regular season. He also is on a team option, though at $3.2 million the lowest of the three among he, Brewer and Korver. “I think we’re fine,” Watson said. “Getting everyone healthy is the key. With Derrick we’re all right to win games offensively and defensively. I’m not sure (what management will do). Hopefully, we’ll all be here to have another run at it. Hopefully, we’ll all be healthy and leave it up to management. Everyone was injured this year. It was a difficult year because we never had a healthy team all year.” Chance to return: 20 percent Kyle Korver: He had a good season, ranking in the top 10 in three point shooting again, but suffered a foot injury late in the regular season that worsened in the playoffs and he basically was unable to play in Game 6, though the team declined to discuss specifics. Korver is one of the league’s best perimeter shooters and an improving defender, so there’ll be good a market for him if the Bulls let him go. “We went in every day as a team believing we would win a championship,” said Korver. “We really went for it. We put everything into it every day. So it makes it a really tough finish. This team has a really bright future. Obviously, we need Derrick to come back healthy and strong, which we all think he will. There are some really great pieces. They told me they’d like to bring me back, but (I know) it will come to dollars. It’s a privilege to wear a Bulls uniform. It’s really an honor. I watched the Bulls growing up. To be part of an organization like that is great. The Bulls are first class in every way, great people, organization, culture and a great place to play basketball. Chicago is an amazing place for sports. Obviously, I’d love to be back, but we’ll see.” Chance to return: 30 percent Omer Asik: He is a restricted free agent, which means the Bulls can match just about any offer. There are some circumstances in which he can be offered more than a mid-level, though it’s tough to see a team using just about all its cap room on a guy who averaged 3.1 points this season. Though he is more valuable. Assuming the Bulls match, they could consider trading Noah. And Asik along with Brewer and Boozer were the only players to play all 66 games. Though you’d have to get a big scorer to make up for Asik’s lack of offense. It seems too complicated and unlikely. Chance to return: 80 percent John Lucas III and Brian Scalabrine are minimum salary free agents, though the Bulls can match on Lucas. He may get a higher guarantee and probably is more likely to be gone than Scalabrine. Though he didn’t play in the playoffs, Mike James would be worth another look as a backup point guard for a minimum if Lucas leaves.
I think there's an echo chamber going on among Bulls beat writers in regard to Asik that isn't right. KC Johnson is reporting that the Bulls will resign Asik because that's what he's been told by the front office and he doesn't understand the Arenas Scale. I heard his spot on the score and he sounds like he's under the impression that the most the Asik can be offered in free agency is the MLE. Sam Smith understands the relevant portions of the CBA, but again I don't think he sees the big picture . . . which is: Dan Gilbert has made it explicitly clear that Asik is his priority this off season. Asik would be perfect on that team, if they're trying to retool to OKCs model. They could park his giant ass in the paint next to Anderson Varejao and instantly have one of the best big men rotations, depending on whether you think Tristain Thompson will pan out. (They do, I don't, but regardless, he needs a big defensive center to play next to him who can guard the rim.) Cleveland still needs more scoring but they could address that in the draft. And . . . Cleveland has an egregious amount of cap space and no long term financial commitments besides Kyrie Irving, who is still along time away from a new contract. The Cavs could use Asik more than the Bulls, have the means to offer him a giant contract and still be within their cap structure, and have an owner who is willing to pay the tax. That's a bad recipe. The only non-Bulls source that has confirmed the Bulls' interest in resigning Asik is the owner of Golden State, and he released those comments to soften the ground for the Ellis-Bogut trade. The Bulls are talking a big game but I think the chances Asik is resigned are much less than 50%.
The most Asik can be offered is MLE. For the first 2 seasons. It can jump really high ($10M) in year 3. It hurts the signing team by averaging the contract over the term - a 3 year $5M + $5M + $11M contract would be $7M/season. This doesn't affect the Bulls, they only count the MLE against the cap first two seasons and $11M the third (etc.).
I don't think KC's aware of the escalation after the first two years. I think he's under the impression that it's the flat four-year MLE with regular raises.
