Boozer had a good season and isn't going to be amnestied. Is he overpaid? Yes, but he's still a good offensive big and a very good defensive rebounder. I like having both Boozer and Gibson on the team. After listening to Forman talk yesterday on the Score, I believe that KC Johnson's speculation is off base. The Bulls aren't looking to trade any of Boozer, Noah or Deng. They believe each of them are important players on the very good team they've built. Next season figures to be tough, but I believe that the team plans to weather the storm, hope to be healthy for a 2013 playoff run and keep their core intact for the seasons beyond. We'll be hearing the word "patience" a lot from the Berto Center over the coming months.
So you think the chairman will go deep into the LT? If they keep everyone they'll have to pay it. Matching a full MLE for Asik adds $3.2M over the LT.
The saving grace for this team might be that the top of the East sucks, and it looks like it'll be that way for a while. Miami's good, but Lebron and Wade clearly don't compliment one another, and they just don't seem to have it together mentally. It's hard to see them taking that next step and playing like Jordan's bulls. I don't think Lebron has it in him. Boston's old, Indy doesn't have the talent, and everyone else looks like they're muddling in basketball purgatory. It seems crazy, but if Rose comes back next year we could be a contender for the ECF, even if we're a low playoff seed.
Let's be clear about what we are discussing. If Mark Cuban was our owner and didn't give a crap about expenditures then I would say Boozer should be amnestied. Mark Cuban is not our owner, and working under different financial assumptions, it makes no sense. I'm not disagreeing with you that Boozer didn't chocked. I think he played as he did in the regular season when he was playing against tight defenses -- very poorly. Boozer is a slightly better player in the regular season; Taj is a much better player in the playoffs; and because of that, I want to see what Taj can do with more extensive minutes. That's my point. And I'm also working under the assumption that theres a reasonably good chance that Mirotic comes over next year and that there will be a minutes crunch at power forward.
And that's the kick to the balls right? Ownership, from KC's words and not Foreman's, seems more ready to write this upcoming season off than they should be. I'll reserve my criticisms until they actually make a move that is detrimental. But I'm approaching this upcoming off season with mixed expectations.
Can't recall if I wrote it here or realgm, but when I heard Forman say that Bulls management has already made the decision that they're matching any offer for Asik that isn't totally ridiculous, it was akin to saying they expect to be paying some LT next season. As for how deep they'll go into the tax, who knows? Right now a lot of fans believe that Reinsdorf will still find a way to avoid the tax. Technically, they can hold on to this opinion until the end of next season regardless of what the Bulls do this summer. What I do know is that, once the Bulls have paid the tax, those same fans will switch the argument to a) they didn't pay enough tax and/or b) they didn't spend wisely.
I'm not the greatest at reading shamsports.com's salaries, but... It says we have $75M in salary without options and cap holds and $82.8M with the cap holds (including Asik). The LT was $70M, and the Bulls squeaked under that at $69.9M this season. So I'm not getting the "regardless of what the Bulls do this summer" part. Asik counts for $2.4M of that $82M figure. I do think the Bulls match a $5M (the max he can be offered) offer for Asik. Bump that $82M by the difference ($2.6M) and we're at ~$85M. Now figure how we get under the LT. The LT was $70M last season, as I said, and it'll probably go up. We won't know until it's announced, but for figuring purposes, $75M (a +$5M amount) seems reasonable. So we need to cut $10M in salaries. Korver. $500K of his $5M salary is guaranteed. See ya? Brewer. $4.7M in salary is guaranteed if he is not waived by July 10. See ya? Watson. $3.4M in salary is guaranteed if he is not waived by July 10. See ya? See? So I think we'll know a lot by July 10, which is this summer.
First off, you missed my meaning. What I meant was that even if the decisions the Bulls make this summer make it clear that they'll be paying the tax, those fans who have been saying that "Reinsdorf will never pay the tax" will remain skeptical until Reinsdorf physically writes the check, which won't happen until after next regular season. The Bulls starting 5 will make $60.1mil next season. Gibson and Butler will make $3.2mil combined next season. I assume Asik will make $5mil and the Bulls' draft pick will make $1.0mil. That's $69.3mil for 9 players. Teams are required to have 13 players on their roster. The only thing we know about next season's LT line is that it won't be less than this season's $70.3mil. Coming off a shortened season, I don't expect it to go up much, and certainly not $5mil. If the Bulls fill out their roster with 4 minimum salary players ($854,389 each), that's an additional $3.4mil, putting them at $72.7mil. My guess is that there's a very good chance that this will trip the LT switch for the Bulls. And I don't expect the Bulls to have 4 minimum guys. They may keep one or more of Watson, Brewer and Korver or they may sign a MLE, MMLE or bi-annual exception player. Net, IMO, paying the tax next season's pretty much a done deal.
You've basically agreed that Korver, Brewer, and Watson are in jeopardy of not being renewed. This leads back to Johnson's thinking. Suppose the Bulls did trade Noah for Portland's #6 and #11 in the draft. Those picks make $2.5M + $1.8M = $4.3M. This is a net savings of $7M for the Bulls. Using your $72.7M figure, we're well under the LT at $65.7M. That's enough to keep at least one of Watson, Brewer, or Korver, and those minimum salary slots you talk about are used on guys (draft picks) with p-p-p-potential. I got your meaning, but we can get a very clear indication of the Bulls' intentions, regarding the LT, by the moves they make this summer. Their MO has been to approach the cap but not exceed it, and to generally have some flexibility. I'd be watching for how much under the LT they get, rather than expecting them to pay some minimal amount. You have to think like the chairman, after all: 1) If you believe him, he'll pay the LT for a championship team. Next season ain't a championship team. He's not going to pay the LT, is he? 2) $.01 over the LT costs him $millions in profit from the LT tax disbursal. His kids will go hungry! 3) $1M over the LT costs him the disbursal and $2M, factoring in the penalty. My guess is we'll know July 10 if the Bulls will pay the LT next season.
I forgot to add that going into the LT to pay the likes of Brewer, Korver, and Watson seems foolish to me. None of them are difference makers, though keeping Watson (if under the LT with him) makes sense so we have at least one guy on the roster who can dribble the ball up court for 30+ minutes a game. Korver has that 3pt shooting skill. But we might find that in a college draftee. Brewer is a strong defender, but we might see Butler as doing fine in a backup defensive role in his place (and cheaper).
Actually, I am trying to think like the Chairman...not one year ahead, but long-term, which in the NBA is 4-7 years out. I do not believe that the Bulls will or should break up the core that they believe will seriously contend for championships over that 4-7 year period unless they believe a move will improve the team's chances of winning championships (possible e.g., Noah going out and Howard coming in). Even moderately high draft picks are a crap shoot. Where we do agree is that the summer will settle our disagreement.
One thing we've overlooked is that Boozer's contract is somewhat useful in that it gives the Bulls the option of acquiring another large contact through a sign and trade. We have no idea what New Orleans is up to because they have a new ownership group. The last ownership group -- the NBA -- didn't seem particularly keen in keeping Eric Gordon. I think the following trade may be somewhat possible if the Hornets are not keen on bringing back Gordon: -- Bulls get (Eric Gordon, sign and trade at 5 years ~13M per) -- Charlotte gets (Carlos Boozer, the Charlotte first rounder the Bulls acquired in the Thomas trade) -- New Orleans gets (Bulls 2012 first rounder) It's a pipe dream, if New Orleans wants to resign Gordon. I'm also not sure you want to lock yourself into another long term contract for a player that has struggled with injuries and hasn't proven himself in the playoffs. That would make for an exciting team though, wouldn't it? Noah, Gibson, Deng, Gordon, Rose.
You replace an injury prone big man who can rebound as well as score with a (more) injury prone SG. But at least he can create his own shot some. If Taj doesn't perform up to the same level as Brewer+Korver (about 15 PPG), your deal is a net loss. At least that's how I see it. Especially giving up the 2 first round picks. The thing is, I'm not at all convinced Brewer, Korver, or even Watson are tough to replace. May as well replace them after next season and go through next season with the chance to develop butler and our 1st.
I'm just tossing it out there. I think the biggest issue, as you mention, is that you're trading one of those players who will get paid near-max but isn't a max player, for another player within the same contours. The difference is that I, at least, think Taj/Mirotic will do just fine replacing the production that you got from Boozer/Taj. I don't think the Bulls would make the trade because it almost guarantees them they would have to enter tax issues when Taj becomes a RFA. Maybe if they let Asik go as well? I don't really believe in Eric Gordon to be honest. The one time I really got to see him play for extended periods was on Team USA, and he struggled against the better competition. The team went with Chauncey (this was two years ago, a much better version of Chauncey) at the time. But I think it's good to remember that these are the types of trades that are out there, and will not be out there next year, when sign and trades are no longer allowed under the CBA. The really big players that are at least possible: Nash; Gordon; Aaron Brooks; Deron Williams; OJ Mayo; Ray Allen; Nicolas Batum; Gerald Wallace; KG; Tim Duncan; Antawn jamison; Ryan Anderson; Bynum; Hibbert; Kaman; McGee; Hawes. There's not a whole lot there of the players who are realistic options that would help the Bulls. Really only Gordon.
Maybe there's more to Gordon than I am aware. His TS% before the most recent injury plagued season was around 57% (59.1% his rookie year which I'm treating as an outlier.) Wade was at 56% this season and James was at 61% for comparison. The best shooting guards in the NBA are Harden (67%) and Ginobili (66%) with no one else with any usage rate being close. Rip was at 50% this year and 52% last year. So it looks like from the stats at least like he would be significant team upgrade. A guy who could drop 16 ppg with a high TS% would be an incredible asset for this team, provided he can get his shot off in the playoffs.
I'm not into this "injury-prone" stuff unless it's a leg thing that can be chronic. Noah's not injury-prone. Boozer's not injury-prone. I'm not familiar with Eric Gordon's history. I hate trading big for small unless the small is way better than the big. I don't think this is the case in a Gordon for Boozer deal. Adding draft picks makes my skin crawl.
That's fair. I don't think the move makes any type of sense unless you believe that Gibson/Mirotic would provide comparable or better playoff production than Boozer/Gibson. I'm making a lot assumptions here that we'll have to wait and see about.
Noah has averaged 66 games a season. Last year, he played 48 and the year before 64 (both out of 82 possible). 2 out of 5 seasons. Boozer has averaged 63 games a season. Boozer played 59 games last year and has had seasons of 37, 33, and 51 games. That's 4 out of 10 seasons he's played less than 72 games (2 more just over 72). Deng has averaged 67 games a season. He missed 12 this past season, 10 two seasons ago, 33 three seasons ago, 19 the season before, and 21 his rookie season. That's 5 out of 8 seasons. I think the term "injury prone" means you can't count on the guy to miss just a couple of games in a season. As far as Boozer is concerned, it was pretty awesome he didn't miss games like he did his first season for us.
