What Happens If....

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by THE HCP, May 30, 2012.

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  1. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    .... we only get our 11th pick! I have literally not thought of this until about an hour ago! We may go into this arguably "great" draft with only the 11th pick. Now that would suck! Changes everything right?
     
    THE HCP, May 30, 2012
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  2. Reep

    Reep Well-Known Member

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    Could be worse, we could go in with only the 13th pick. (two teams behind pass us, and NJ gets top 3).

    The most remote possibility is Portland gets passed up by the three teams behind them and gets the 14th pick. But, if that does happen then nobody will be surprised when we also get the 9th too.
     
    Reep, May 30, 2012
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  3. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    How will your expectations of this upcoming season change is this happens?
     
    THE HCP, May 30, 2012
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  4. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    GREAT!
     
    THE HCP, May 30, 2012
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  5. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    I have thought this would be the case since the trade deadline.

    As of right now we have a GM in place that selected Nolan Smith in the first round, when every single mock draft had him going in round two

    Does it really matter where we pick?
     
    Mediocre Man, May 30, 2012
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  6. jlprk

    jlprk The ESPN mod is insane.

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    I think we had better steel ourselves for the worst. My incredible toughness is why Oden's saga didn't make me cry.
     
    jlprk, May 30, 2012
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  7. BoBoBREWSKI

    BoBoBREWSKI BURP!

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    Yes, because we will trade the pick. Better pick = better trade.
     
    BoBoBREWSKI, May 30, 2012
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  8. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    I agree we will trade the pick actually, but again, for what? #11 for Calderon, or Farmar, or some journeyman stiff?
     
    Mediocre Man, May 30, 2012
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  9. Reep

    Reep Well-Known Member

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    I think I would only be upset if NJ ends up with Howard. If they get their pick this year and don't get Howard, then we could still come out great next year--which might have more game changers than this year. It wouldn't bother me too much.

    Also, I'm more concerned about the 6th pick than I am the 11th. I think at 11 it will be obvious who to take. At 6 I still have a lot of questions unless someone unexpected falls in our laps (read Sacto takes Barnes).
     
    Reep, May 30, 2012
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  10. BLAZINGGIANTS

    BLAZINGGIANTS Well-Known Member

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    I didn't think there was any scenario in which we could only end up with #14?
     
    BLAZINGGIANTS, May 30, 2012
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  11. BLAZINGGIANTS

    BLAZINGGIANTS Well-Known Member

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    This. Just tell me the worst that could happen with the draft lotto, and I'm going to assume that's how it'll turn out.
     
    BLAZINGGIANTS, May 30, 2012
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  12. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    Nope. Only 13
     
    Mediocre Man, May 30, 2012
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  13. BoBoBREWSKI

    BoBoBREWSKI BURP!

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    Lowry
     
    BoBoBREWSKI, May 30, 2012
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  14. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    #11 for Lowry...... do it in a heartbeat!
     
    THE HCP, May 30, 2012
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  15. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    Beer, you going to Buffalo's?
     
    THE HCP, May 30, 2012
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  16. jlprk

    jlprk The ESPN mod is insane.

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    At 5:00, we trade the picks for Derek Fisher and the Thunder ping pong ball turns up #1. Stern had weighted it to do us a favor.
     
    jlprk, May 30, 2012
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  17. BoBoBREWSKI

    BoBoBREWSKI BURP!

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    Nope. Have fun!
     
    BoBoBREWSKI, May 30, 2012
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  18. Reep

    Reep Well-Known Member

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    If Rockets, Suns and Bucks get 1-3, that would move us to 14, wouldn't it?
     
    Reep, May 30, 2012
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  19. Eastoff

    Eastoff But it was a beginning.

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    There is only a 0.1% chance of this happening as well.

    source


    Here are the odds for each seed to get specific picks if there were no ties (rounded to 3 decimal places):
    Seed Chances 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
    1 250 .250 .215 .178 .357
    2 199 .199 .188 .171 .319 .123
    3 156 .156 .157 .156 .226 .265 .040
    4 119 .119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012
    5 88 .088 .097 .107 .261 .360 .084 .004
    6 63 .063 .071 .081 .439 .305 .040 .001
    7 43 .043 .049 .058 .599 .232 .018 .000
    8 28 .028 .033 .039 .724 .168 .008 .000
    9 17 .017 .020 .024 .813 .122 .004 .000
    10 11 .011 .013 .016 .870 .089 .002 .000
    11 8 .008 .009 .012 .907 .063 .001 .000
    12 7 .007 .008 .010 .935 .039 .000
    13 6 .006 .007 .009 .960 .018
    14 5 .005 .006 .007 .982

    e:i'm too lazy to format that shitstorm
     
    Eastoff, May 30, 2012
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  20. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    LOL Houston hangs the phone up
     
    Mediocre Man, May 30, 2012
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