But of course, we're going to get franchise changing players despite this history. :MARIS61: http://www.hoopsworld.com/history-of-the-nba-draft-pick-number-6 http://www.hoopsworld.com/history-of-the-nba-draft-pick-number-11 *note we did draft brandon roy, however, that makes it even less likely that we will find another diamond in the rough. trade up or package to get a better veteran player.
I'm with you on this. much of the talk is why trade the draft picks just to get a player who won't make the Blazers a championship contender. Well odds are that if Blazer keep their picks, they aren't going to draft players to make them championship contenders. At this stage for the Blazers, I'll take a proven commodity over potential.
I'm not opposed to dealing the picks just as long as they acquire players that are young enough (20-25) to build around. The faster they realize this team is not a win-now roster the better.
"young enough to build around" doesn't cut it. Has to be top 3 pick or a superstar. only thing that should be on the Blazers mind.
I don't understand that mindset. The roster has way too many holes, adding an aging "star" will not help this team get out of the first round. Looking at this team long-term it's pretty bleak if you don't bring in young talent to groom. San Antonio and Indiana are prime examples of building for now with an eye on the future.
will Indiana ever come out of the east without a major move for a star? doubtful. You can only really build by trading for stars or drafting with a top 3 pick. You don't fill the holes first, you get the big talent THEN fill the holes. that's how you win in this league. sure, building young teams, balanced players, chemistry, blah blah blah and building them over years and years sounds fun in theory, but it rarely works.
I agree with this. Trade picks is fine so long as it's for a younger player with proven skills. After looking over the list, it's apparent our chances of getting two potential NBA starters is about 5%.
I think your logic has a flaw. Luol Deng was a #7 pick. Joakim Noah was a #9 pick. In theory, you could get a guy like those for the #6 pick. You can't just look at the historical picks without looking at who those guys were taken ahead of.
the majority of #11 picks going back 20 years have been meh nba players denny....of course you can win the powerball, but odds are YOU ARE GOING TO LOSE
Not really. We can also look at the #7 and #9 pick and it should follow a similar pattern. Perhaps one or two diamonds in the rough, but generally, it is just that...the rough. I mean we can look at the #57th pick and say: wow, manu ginobili was selected there...that must mean its more valuable than the #6 pick! if you look at historical #57s though, you'll see getting a good player is an outlier.
So in 30 years the 2 picks yielded a total of 2 solid starters (Roy and Vandeweghe) and 1 solid bench player (Horry). The other 57 players were either crappy, mediocre, or had major personality disorders which negated their talent value (Bonzi). None of those 57 had any major positive effect on the teams that drafted them. My advice is trade up or trade picks for players.
Good post. The draft is a crapshoot. That said, I also advise trading both picks, but only for a star, and a star who is not older than Aldridge. This particular draft is a crapshoot after #1 so I don't advise trading up either; I agree with a poster who said it's better to take two chances and hope one turns out well.
my thing with #6 this season is that it's a deep draft and most people agree that 2-6/7 are all on about the same tier. so why trade up to 2, unless you fall in love with one guy, instead of taking whatever guy falls to you? i know most years it's a couple guys at the top and then a big dropoff, but i don't see that as the case this year.
Agreed. This is a pretty stupid premise. It has more to do with the quality of the draft and the talent evaluators than the pick's position. Regardless LILLARD AT #6
I wouldn't have a problem with a player on the level of about 1/3 to 1/2 of the #6 picks. Shane Battier, Antoine Walker, Ron Mercer, Tom Gugliotta, Kenny Smith, Hersey Hawkins, Chris Kaman, Brandon Roy, and Danilo Galinari are enough for me to believe that in general, the #6 pick provides opportunities. The #11 pick is certainly more of a crapshoot, but it is possible to pick up a solid role player - JJ Redick, Jared Jeffries, Tyrone Hill, Gary Trent, or even a star - Reggie Miller, Allan Houston, Kiki Vandeweghe, or something in between - Terrell Brandon, Robert Horry, etc. But I think I'd lean toward trading up, unless this is really a freak show of a deep draft, with a potential Allan Houston waiting for the Blazers at #11.
You also have to make adjustments for the Blazers drafting prowess....so let's take a look at the history of the #14 and #22 picks.
