I have come to the conclusion that our #6 pick is a trap. It's in the portion of the draft where all the sure-fire star players have gone, and before all the sure-fire contributors are projected. It's in the dreaded "except for..." zone. "Except for the fact that he can't play, Drummond looks amazing". "Except for the fact that he can't create his own shot, Barnes could be a star!" That is, "risks" and "projects". Players that are pure potential. Sure, they could pan out. But they very rarely do. If you check through old drafts, you'll see that there's always a sort of dead spot in the first round where you get a bunch of busts. SO: I say, do what New Jersey did in 2001: trade our pick to Houston for multiple lower picks. Houston takes the "high risk, high reward" Eddie Griffin (RIP) and NJ gets a couple of starters for their two NBA finals runs. In other words: trade #6 for #s14 and 15. Here's the main thing that's pushed me to this: the first 4 picks are pretty much settled. 1. Anthony Davis - sure fire All-Star 2. T-Rob - borderline all-star/Horace Grant type 3. MKG - great glue guy, Iguodala game, Derek Fisher intangibles 4. Beal - possible all-star shooting guard That leaves Drummond and Barnes as the logical next picks, and both of them are unappealing. So you either have to be ballsy and pick a surprise player (worked out well for Sam Presti with Westbrook - for this draft I would say UNC's Henson would be the best choice) or you take the projected player for somebody else and trade it for the lower-projected pick that you really want (like Nellie picking Tractor Traylor (RIP) and swapping him for Nowitzki). I think Sacramento has already realized this, which is why they're suddenly eager to dump their pick.
Better yet, get an actual player for the pick. Iggy and Deng are out there, but they might be a bit old for our window, and they would soak up all our capspace.
The problem with your theory is that Barnes is expected to go #4 to Cleveland, meaning that at least one of those "sure-fire" players drops at least to 5; factoring in that Drummond is a big boy, I wouldn't be surprised if someone jumps to 5 to get him, which would drop one of your top 4 to #6. Not only that, but many believe Lillard has jumped into that same tier, and would be a worth-while pick at #6. So, while there might be some merit to your logic if everything goes the way you listed, there are too many variables in play to justify taking that position more than 10 minutes before it's our turn to pick.
I still believe that the best players are through the draft, and not cast offs from other teams. Trade Up!!!
this is a very interesting draft, after the #1 pick opinions differ greatly on who will be the best player out of the next 5 or 6 and most agree that those 5 or 6 are close. so does it reall makes sense to trade up when it's somewhat of a crapshoot? Or take a proven commodity like Lowry, and add a pick in the next tier down. Not necessarily advocating that but it has it's reasoning, it really depends upon how the GM and scouts rate these guys.
If Beal, MKG, Barnes or Robinson are going to drop to #6...then you don't trade the pick.... I highly doubt HOU is going to trade Lowry BEFORE they have Dragic locked up.... I did read a rumor that UTA badly wants to get into the top 10 and had offered N.O. Burks & Millsap for the #10? I find that hard to believe, but I would consider that.... But, I think POR best bet is to trade up from #6 and get the guy that they want...I think SAC and CLE might be willing to bounce back a few spots and add a piece (player or pick) or in SAC case offload a contract (Salmons)....and since it appears that niether of those 4 (Robinson, Beal, MKG, Barnes) will be there at #6...If you want one of those guys, then you should go get them....
I would only trade up for #2 to take Robinson. I think the others are somewhat equal. I think the #6 pick will get a very good player, so I wouldn't mind keeping it. 11, not so sure. Trading down almost never works. Martell is the best example of that. The only good side is that fewer people remember that you passed on CP3. So, if you know you are incompetent, then trade down so it doesn't look so bad.
I don't like the trade down move, though the OP logic is good. I think the first thing to do is call up NOH and swap Okafor and 10 for Wes and contracts (Nolan, Babbitt, Thomas, Williams, etc.) It immediately gives us a great defensive fit at Center (while expensive and slightly fragile) and another lotto pick, without cutting into cap space too much. 6, 10, 11 can be spun multiple ways. If you can use 6+11+one of our young guys that didn't go to NOH (E-Will?) for #2 and our 2013 pick back to move up to get MKG, and #10 to get either 14+16 (unlikely) or 20+21, you can come out of the draft with something like FA PG??/Wroten (at 16 or 21) Batum/Ross? (at 14) or Fournier (at 20) MKG/Claver LMA/ Okafor and the cap space to get a max FA (and 3 1st-round picks in the next 5 years in a S&T. Right now, with our protected 2013, we can't trade ANY picks) Maybe HOU gives up 14 and 16 for 10+Freeland's rights.
2 months ago Drummond and Barnes were considered by many as the ones we needed to trade UP to get if we wanted them. Now that others have passed them we have down graded their potential. I have to wonder why that is. They both measured out well and they haven't played a game to change anyone's view. So who is changing our minds?
I think there is a drop from #5 to #6 in safe bet draft pick. Not to say Drummond or Lillard or whoever won't be a stud, but there are a lot more question marks around them than guys like Robinson, Beal, MKG and Barnes
Interviews. And I'd disagree that Barnes has slipped. I think he's as high right now as he's been since Jan 2011.
I'd be cool with that. But that seems like a lot of moving pieces. Houston has to be pretty sure they can sign Dragic if they're going to deal Lowry, Houston has to like the guy at 6, Houston has to like the guy at 11 and be pretty sure he won't slip to 14, Portland has to like the guys at 14 and 16. And all the while both teams will be working the phones with other teams looking for a better deal. That seems like too many balls up in the air for two teams to juggle.
I agree with you on Barnes. But the thread was based on the top 4 and I don't think Rastapop is alone in his thinking. But really it comes down to Drummond. He is the reason many of us would want to trade down. He is the big question mark. Half the mock drafts I looked at this morning had us taking him.
