I disagree that Batum would be a negative asset at $12 million. I think he's fairly close to worth that as it is and he still has upside left. I don't think $12 million is the cost of a young legitimate All Star...if Batum became an All Star caliber player, he'd be worth much more than $12 million. I don't think that's the standard for it being a worthwhile match. That's sort of an obvious desire, but it's like saying "the team should aim for being championship-caliber"...it doesn't provide much in the way of analytic use. The two places where a team can expect to find players worth more than their contracts are players on rookie contracts and stars paid the max, because those are the two classes of contracts where the player's value is being artificially surpressed (i.e. not free market value). I wholeheartedly endorse acquiring studs on rookie contracts or stars on max deals, but that's pretty obviously easier said than done. I don't think $12 million is out of step with Batum's value. It wouldn't make him a "positive asset," but not a negative one either. However, while it takes the team out of contention for signing a star on a max deal (Hibbert doesn't qualify, as I think his max deal would be around fair value; he's not a clear star who's clearly worth more than the max), I don't think signing a star to a max deal (like Deron Williams) is at all a likely outcome for the Blazers no matter how much cap space they have. Signing Batum doesn't take the team out of the ability to get studs on rookie contracts...that requires being great drafters, but can be done even over the salary cap. I think that signing Batum and going over the salary cap is preferable to letting the cap space languish and eventually acquiring another role-player or two. Batum is currently a very good role-player with, in my view, the potential to be more than that.
Chris Haynes @ChrisBHaynes I'm assuming Spencer Hawes if he's still on the board RT @JSantangel11510 chris what's portlands back up plan if hibbert signs back w/ indy?
This is a really interesting take. I hadn't thought about how well each player would compliment Aldridge nor did I know there was a Hibbert/Shaw connection. I had been quitely hoping Shaw might get the nod as the head coach anyway. It will be fun to watch this develop. Summers (as far as basketball is concerned), are usually so boring. Not this year. I do think Lopez is a bit underrated. I would have to be pretty confident that he doesn't have a chronic foot problem though. That might be effecting his rebounding. When I see a center as talented as Lopez not rebounding it makes me wonder about coaching/how they are using him too. Having said that I can see where Hibbert would be considered the safer choice. To have either of them would be an incredible upgrade.
David Aldridge@daldridgetnt Sources: Roy Hibbert indeed leaning toward Blazers after max offer commitment Sat. Pacers mulling. Story up soon on http://NBA.com.
I thought that Hibbert and the Blazers had already verbally agreed? I'm guessing Hibbert likes the idea of playing alongside another All-Star front-court player who can post up. David West is a nice PF, but he's not a true PF.
I don't think you're disagreeing with what I said... My point is, the offer we threw at Hibbert is basically as good as those Rose/Durant/Westbrook super-studs are getting after their rookie deal, and he's nowhere near in their category in terms of impacting the game consistently. I'd be comfortable going as high as $10M/yr for Hibbert's level of production, but 50% beyond that is just silly long-term planning. And as you guessed, I'm not a fan of paying Batum $12M per. Look at it this way, is he measurably better than any of a handful of top rookies each year that are nearing the end of their rookie deals at ~$3-5M? I would say no, so why pay him 2-3x that? I like Batum, but he's fairly replaceable. And fairly replaceable guys shouldn't get paid 20% of the salary cap. That sort of money has to be reserved for stars, not role players. Hell, give him a couple years of player options after year 2 if he really thinks he'll emerge as something significantly more than he is now.
You're right--it is worth pondering that Hibbert is a better rebounder, passer, shot-blocker, and overall defender than Lopez, and the Lopez' only real advantage over Hibbert is scoring. Thanks for pointing that out.
Thinking outside the box here, which is always dangerous for me, but what if both agree to a S&T for each other? That would still leave with 9 million? in cap room?
Oh. I thought you were confusing Cooney/Leonard with Cooney/Holmes. Kind of a dumb nickname. It won't stick.
except that for their careers thus far brook lopez has higher per game marks in... (deep breath)....points, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, ft percentage, shooting percentage, free throw attempts, steals, less fouls, and tied in blocks and assists, most of those likely to do with the fact he has played 10 mpg more thus far (guess you cant produce when you arent on the floor) in fact the one and only category that brook falls to hibbert in is turnovers 2.1pg to 1.7pg oh and a much higher PER, more win shares, and a higher ws/48 thanks for pointing out whatever you were pointing out though
