The team started out 7-2 last year... which was an aberration, as it turns out, that (in the short season) really made the team look better than it was (more than a 9 game hot streak over an 82 game season). Without that run, the team was 21-36, which over an 82 game season is a 30 win team. ESPN is predicting 35 wins, which is what the aberration-including record amounts to over 82 games. I think that the team is probably a little worse than last year, so I think 35 wins is a bit high. Ed O.
Anybody with a shred of common sense or basketball knowledge knew that fast start last year wouldn't continue. This place was blowing up like we were on our way to the finals and that we wouldn't miss Brandon or Greg!
While I guess preseason polls are fun, they're generally pretty worthless. I think the Blazers are one of the bigger mysteries in the NBA this year. A new coach, a bunch of new players, mixed with some solid veterans is usually a recipe for a lottery visit, but I'm not sure that's going to be the case for the Blazers. Lillard looks to be a stud and LA is a proven producer. Freeland looked pretty good in the Olympics. I'd bet on lottery, but I wouldn't be surprised at contending for the 8th spot.
Strange, isn't it? Everybody couldn't wait to get rid of Crawford and Felton, but now that they're gone and we have an excellent young point guard, they think we're going to be much worse than last year. Go figure.
I think Minny is clearly better than us (unless Rubio is out for most of the season). I think GState is clearly better than us (unless Curry and Bogut are out for most of the season). Phoenix has a good chance to be better than us (Dragic, Gortat, Dudley, Scola are all good and the players they got from Minny (Beasley and Johnson) will be better in Phoenix I think). New Orleans will benefit from having Monty, and Eric Gordon made that team a ton better when he played, and now they have Ryan Anderson and Anthony Davis. But who's their PG? Vasquez? Houston have special dispensation to play 20 players, so they'll just overwhelm teams in waves. I guess we'll see if Jeremy Lin is all that. (Chandler Parsons is a player to watch, say I. And I think Omer Asik will surprise some people). Sacramento could be good. Boogie Cousins almost single-handedly beat Team USA, and now they've realized that he's their franchise player and Keith Smart has downplayed Tyreke Evans, I think they could do damage. It all rests on Aldridge. Is his hip okay? Because if not, we could easily be last in the West.
We won't miss Crawford, but believe it or not, after McMillan got fired, Felton had one of the best +/-s on the team. Having a rookie PG is normally a recipe for disaster. Unless you're the San Antonio Spurs with Tony Parker.
The only wild card there is Beasley. If he's focused. that changes the game completely. Although, it's like saying two years ago or so, the Blazers 'might be a contender if Oden is healthy.' Just as you knew Oden wouldn't be healthy, we all know that Beasley will probably continue to be an inconsistent second option. I'd like to believe otherwise, but the burden of proof is on Beasley at this point after his passive stints in Miami and Minnesota.
When 5 players on your roster are NBA rookies you are relying on youth (even if some of these rookies like Freeland aren't fresh faced teenagers). Multiple factors make me think this team is going to be sub .500. First off, a new coach and a new system means growing pains, secondly a massive roster overhaul and starting rookie point guard means even more growing pains and time needed to build on-court chemistry. Maybe the talent will be there, but it's going to take some time for that talent to learn to play together. Additionally, maybe only Lillard is expected to step into a big role right from the jump, but Leonard is going to be leaned on heavily too I'd guess and he looks raw as hell. The becomes an issue in the case of injuries to any of Lillard, LaMarcus, Batum or Wesley -- that bench is already looking pretty thin on talent and/or experience; pressing one or more of those bench guys into a starting role probably won't end well. This team is going to be somewhat competitive with its starting five, but the bench is probably going to give up a lot of ground on a lot of nights and that's going to mean more losses than wins this year ... and there's no shame in that so long as Olshey is able to make good moves to bolster the team and build toward something in subsequent years.
The ESPN predictions give a lot more wins to the West than East, so our 35 wins and .427 seem a little disproportionate to 11th place. Since teams will tank later, predictions as of the All-Star break would be more verifiable and objective.
Portland's backcourt play was an eyesore last year. Wesley seemed to be on one leg getting through games on will power while Felton... 'nuff said. If his ankle issues are behind him, Matthews is a decent starter who defends well and can spread the court with his deep ball. Maybe it's the homer glasses, but I'm expecting Lillard to be much more effective then Raymond. I'm sure everyone recalls teams slumping off him clogging the paint/begging him to throw up another brick Up front, I was pretty stoked that they were able to resign Hickson. He's obviously not the perfect match with LA as he's a PF sized Big, so there will be a few difficult matchups out there... Cousins springs to mind. But with Camby's game falling off a cliff JJ pretty easily provided the best Big man play outside Aldridge. Offensively LA-JJ project make a pretty good high low tandem with JJ playing the garbageman role inside off of Lillard and LA's 2 man game. Batum and Matthews provide good spacing balance as solid catch and shoot deep threats. If they stay relatively healthy and get anything out of their bench, I could definitely see them over 500 & sneaking into the playoffs. I suspect we'll see the Blazers rising in these type of Power Polls as the season approaches... really looking forward to seeing Damian & LA playing together. STOMP
Me too, only Houston has less talent and experience. I don't see where we have the players to compensate for our weak coaching.
I'm giving the coaching a blank slate....... depth wise is where we will struggle. Imagine if Nic misses a couple or LA gets in foul trouble.
Beyond the top two teams - Oklahoma City and the Lakers, seems to me there's a significant drop off. l see four teams likely to make the playoffs, only to lose to one another, or to LA or OKC: Nuggets, Spurs, Clippers and Grizzlies. Then, there's a bunch of teams that will be in the hunt for the last two playoff spots but could easily miss the postseason altogether: Mavericks, Jazz, Timberwolves, Golden State, and Houston. The Blazers I put in the category of "probably irrelevant" along with the Hornets, Kings, and Suns. Portland looks like the best of those teams, largely because only the Blazers have a dependable, high-percentage scorer like LaMarcus Aldridge. But he's not enough in the talented West to get the Blazers into playoff contention without some serious help from Batum/Matthews/Lillard? Not sure he'll get that.
