Clicking on the two charts from my original post, it kind of feels like maybe the momentum has broken open and Obama is starting to pull way out ahead. Could just be my bias, though. (Are we allowed to admit that our own biases might sway our reading of the data in this forum?) Plus this just came out: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/10/cnn-poll-obama-up-six-points-over-romney/?hpt=hp_t1
I thought Zakaria's read on the two conventions (and the Republican anger) was on point: http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn...-republican-party-too-angry-to-win/?hpt=hp_t2 I don't think independents like the Democrats in particular. But they don't hate them. The fury on the right is kind of tiring. I think it was a big mistake for Republicans to go with a guy like Romney who just can't seem to have that soft edge to a hard message like, say, a Mike Huckabee can. I disagree with Huckabee's policies, but I always find myself liking him as a person, and in the end I think presidential elections come down to likability. When was the last time the less likable guy won the presidency? I suppose McCain was more likable than Obama as a person, but I think Obama was more likable as an idea (first black president, not another ancient white dude). I don't think Obama-the-idea is nearly as likable as it once was, but Romney-as-a-person or Romney-as-face-of-Republican-anger is even less likable. Whomever runs in 2016, they'll probably be going against Hillary Clinton, which, let's face it, will automatically give that person a nice leg up in the likability department.
3 other polls came out yesterday and showed a similar small move up for Obama. Hillary won't run. She's too old and she showed her true colors in the Libya and Syria wars. She'll get no support from her party.
I don't even need to look at the polls to see how Obama and Romney are polling If Denny posts a poll, it has to do with Romney winning/Obama falling behind If he doesn't post anything, it's safe to assume Obama is ahead. I've haven't seen Denny post a poll in a few days. Obama must be ahead.
I think Obama's ahead. He SHOULD be ahead since he's the incumbent and he won with 53% of the vote in 2008 - that's what has made the polls saying the election is close interesting. What remains to be seen is whether Obama's convention bounce lasts and whether there's enough voter intensity on the Democrat side to actually elect him. At a similar point in time, Carter was up against Reagan and Dukakis was up against GHW Bush.
Two of the most accurate pollsters from 2008 latest results: TIPP: Obama 46%; Romney 44% Rasmussen - 11 Swing States: Obama 47%; Romney 45% http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...dministration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll http://www.tipponline.com/presidenc...ghtens-as-obama-advantage-narrows-to-2-points
Well that's depressing. Whoever it is I hope they have a different plan than the one utilized in the last 4 years
http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/ The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos. The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com. On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on. Here is the list – 1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)** 1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)** 3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1) 4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27) 5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)* 6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)* 6T. ARG (10/25-27)* 8T. CNN (10/30-11/1) 8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1) 10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3) 11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27) 12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2) 13. FOX (11/1-2) 14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27) 15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3) 16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2) 17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2) 18. Marist College (11/3) 19. CBS (10/31-11/2) 20. Gallup (10/31-11/2) 21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3) 22. CBS/Times (10/25-29) 23. Newsweek (10/22-23)
I referred to likely voters (intensity) above. The polls say... http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/.../11/National-Politics/Polling/release_126.xml Registered Voters: Obama 50, Romney 44 LIKELY Voters: Obama 49, Romney 48 Swing States: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...dministration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll In the 11 swing states, the president now attracts 47% of the vote, while Mitt Romney earns 45%. Three percent (3%) plan to vote for some other candidate, while 5% are not sure. In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin. TIPP Poll: http://www.tipponline.com/presidenc...ghtens-as-obama-advantage-narrows-to-2-points Obama 46 Romney 44
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/245348118281994241 Nate SilverVerified @fivethirtyeight Looks like our model has now fully priced in Obama's bounce -- he actually declined slightly in our forecast tonight. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Intersting take on the election (southern whites troubled with Romney). Personally I don't think this is just a "south" kind of thinking but nationally this is what many are thinking: LYNCHBURG, Virginia (Reuters) - Sheryl Harris, a voluble 52-year-old with a Virginia drawl, voted twice for George W. Bush. Raised Baptist, she is convinced -- despite all evidence to the contrary -- that President Barack Obama, a practicing Christian, is Muslim. So in this year's presidential election, will she support Mitt Romney? Not a chance. "Romney's going to help the upper class," said Harris, who earns $28,000 a year as activities director of a Lynchburg senior center. "He doesn't know everyday people, except maybe the person who cleans his house." She'll vote for Obama, she said: "At least he wasn't brought up filthy rich." White lower- and middle-income voters such as Harris are wild cards in this vituperative presidential campaign. With only a sliver of the electorate in play nationwide, they could be a deciding factor in two southern swing states, Virginia and North Carolina http://news.yahoo.com/southern-whites-troubled-romneys-wealth-religion-050312040.html I notice that Oregon is not a taget for either canidate when it comes to campaigning. Is it because Oregon is already a lock for Obama?
I hate thinking like this. We need to pick the best person to get the economy, healthcare and the deficit under control, regardless of their background. Obama has failed miserably at doing those things, so it's time for a new direction.
Yes. The only way Romney wins Oregon is if he wins in a giant landslide nationally. Either way, Oregon doesn't matter. barfo
piggy backing on what barfo said, do you think Romney will run government much different than Bush did? I'm not trying to talk about Bush is evil, I'm just trying to say I think Bush is a proto-typical republican for economic policies, and it didn't (in my opinion) make for a great country.
Westnob, IMO, Bush, while I disagreed with him on everything, did seem to have some firm ideas. Romney has 20 positions on everything to the point where some are cynically suggesting a debate between Romney and Romney. I think he'd be a tool. Grover Norquist, to whom many in Congress have literally pledged allegience, said all the president needs is a hand to sign whatever legislation he's given - not exact words but close. I do think he'd be like Bush in the idea that if you keep giving to the rich, somehow the whole country gets better.
