As much as I've been disappointed with the failure of Obama and was hoping for someone to change the downward spiral the coutry is in, Romney is a total boob. IMO he's run a so-so campaign (at best) and I think the contest is over. Obama will have 4 more years and here's hoping he opts to try better approaches to repair the country.
As much as the posters on here like to go back and forth about politics, etc., I would hope that we all want the country to succeed. I think it's going to be hard to unseat Obama, despite the disappointment of the economy, etc., so I tend to agree with you about the outcome of the election.
I think you are right. It'll be close, though. And really, Republicans don't have to change much to be competitive. Had they made some strides for a more moderate stance on something like immigration (and not alienated a lot of Hispanics) it would be a difference-maker in this election. The primaries just kept pushing Republican candidates further to the right, and it's been impossible for Romney to do the usual tacking toward the center after he got the nomination. This election may be the high water mark for how far right Republicans push themselves.
Not just Hispanics, mook. There is a HUGE gender gap. In 2010 Republicans swept into office in Congress and states mostly due to crappy economy and confusion/dissatisfaction over health care bill. They have passed zero jobs bills but over 50 anti-abortion/contraception bills introduced into the House and over 900 in various states. Everything from saying secular employers can veto birth control, to redefining rape in a way that would make most rapes "non-rape", to forced vaginal probe ultrasounds - because women are too dumb to know what pregnancy entails unless a man explains it to us - that cost $400 to $700 and are not covered by insurance because they are not medically necessary (they aren't), to blocking the Paycheck Fairness Act and renewal of the Violence Against Women Act (formerly passed with huge bipartisan majorities), to holding a Congressional hearing on contraception that excluded women, to closing down the only women's health care facilities in many areas, you name it. Women's groups have put together a list of around 1500 or so anti-women's rights bills proposed or passed in the last 2 years. Women vote in greater numbers than men, although some of the voter suppression efforts specifically keep women from voting (women are more likely to change names, men rarely do, but women frequently do through marriage or divorce so the name on their birth certificates may not be the name they now use). Still, overcoming a 20+ point gender gap won't be easy. As for moderating stand on immigration, in fact the Republican Party has gone in the other direction. Bush proposed the DREAM Act, remember. Romney promised to veto it. Who was the Republican who said there aren't enough angry white dudes?
I don't think this election is over by a long shot, regardless of what the Beltway pundits say. I do give credit to the Obama campaign for making someone as accomplished as Romney seem not as qualified as someone with a resume as thin as our current President. They sure do know how to smear. For example, if you were working HR and you had to choose between Barack Obama's and Mitt Romney's resume for an executive position, it wouldn't even be close. As for what will happen in a second Obama term, it will be paralysis as long as the GOP holds on to the House. Math will take hold and the fantasy world in which we can spend money like we have the past three years will meet reality. We can wish and hope and pray all we want, but we're broke. Eventually, we're going to have to cut back, and that will make the recession of the past four years seem like the tech boom of the 90s. Look at what's happening in Greece and Spain and that's our future. There is only one ticket that is acknowledging that reality. President Obama has many faults, and perhaps his biggest where the American people are concerned is his intellectual laziness. He doesn't bother to understand the other side's position, which manifests itself in not being able to make a deal. He simply doesn't think those with opposing views are legitimate. It will lead to stalemate, deadlock and eventually government will shut down in a budget standoff. Like it or not, but Mitt Romney worked with a heavily Democratic legislature in Massachusetts. He got things done with a side further to the Left in his Commonwealth than the House is to the right. If you want things done, there's really only one choice.
Have you heard about Bob Woodward's book, The Price of Politics? The House Republicans compromised and thought they reached a deal, with $800B of tax increases. Then President Obama came back for another $400B over upon what they had agreed. He's the one that wouldn't compromise. It couldn't be clearer.
I don't think this is over yet. There are enough dissatisfied voters that if Romney can somehow identify with voters, he's a got a shot. There is time, the question is can he identify with voters. Many feel the way BP feels (surprised), that Romney is big boob. He doesn't express himself well, he doesn't come across natural and he is not the most camera freindly canidate which kills in today's modern world of media. He needs to do something to connect with voters. Something like the Clinton going on Letterman and playing the sax wearing shades. Maybe a viral video that is getting pasted all over facebook and twitter with Romeny showing a lighter side. I don't know but he needs to do something "hip" and maybe a little lower class for him. Maybe??? But yes, it's reaching, because Obama likely has this.
yeah, Brian, Truman has no chance. Might as well print up the papers with the "Dewey Wins!" headlines. I have to have faith that people are smarter than that. Maxies post about how dark the next four years under the same leadership is not a doom and gloom forcast to scare the masses. It is a reality. If voters lived like the government, they would have filed BK a long time ago.
I too think the country is in for 4 more years of Obama. I was really disappointed that the Republicans couldn't come up with a better candidate. I don' tthink it will happen, but I certainly hope if Obama is re-elected that he does a better job in years 5-8 than in years 1-4
From a numbers perspective, why do people believe that the election is over? Do people believe the numbers in Ohio and Florida from CBS and the Washington Post? Anecdotally, I live in one of the most staunchly Democratic areas in Denver. Mike Bennet lives around the corner, John Hickenlooper, Roy Romer and Chris Romer live only a few blocks away. When they want to have "open" meetings, they hold a 7th Avenue Historic District meeting because they know there won't be any Republicans that show, because none live in this neighborhood. What I've noticed--surprisingly--is that there are more Romney signs in this neighborhood than Obama signs, even side by side with Diana DeGette signs (our Democratic US Rep.). Polls in CO have Romney up, which is shocking. He'll take back IN and NC. He's up in NH and IA. It comes down to FL and OH. I'm amazed at the conclusion this race is over before the first debate. I'd be interested in a reasoned analysis as to why.
It's not too late to start a write-in campaign. SlyPokerDog for President! Maxiep for Vice President!
The electoral math hasn't favored Romney from the start. He's basically needed Florida, Ohio, and a shot at PA to gather the 270 votes for victory. Obama may end up with 300 EVs while the national popular vote is within a couple of %. Romney's run a lousy campaign, in spite of an enormous sum of money. He's let the media and the late night bozos define him and his agenda. He does not show the charisma of a Reagan (who beat a similarly lame president) or the know-how to go directly to the people (as Reagan did) to bypass the media and get the actual message he wants out there. Obama's challenge was to run out the clock, and Romney simply let him. The RNC didn't help much since the DNC had much higher production value (Hollywood!). All that's left are the debates, and Romney's going to have to make Obama look pathetic to convince everyone to take a 2nd look. I'm not seeing it.
In the past two elections, the guy with the lead in mid-to-late September only gained momentum on the way to winning the presidency: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ma_vs_romney_compared_to_obama_vs_mccain.html http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...bama_vs_romney_compared_to_bush_vs_kerry.html Debates and late-breaking events didn't seem to swing things enough to make a difference. In this era media are quick to transition from "it's a close horse race!" to "what disaster befell the loser?" even before the election happens, making it pretty hard to change the polling toward the end. If Obama were like Clinton where some crazy-ass scandal could crop up at any minute, I'd give Romney a better shot at a big comeback. But Obama does the no-drama thing pretty well, and all the old stuff (him being a Muslim/socialist/Black Panther/Kenyan/etc) isn't going to budge things. Woodward's book was interesting, but it's not really a smoking gun story. I guess if you cross your fingers and hope for suddenly lots and lots more unemployed and broke people, Romney might come out a winner. It's kind of a bummer way to win, but it's a possibility.
The very thing you pointed out, Mook, about broke people, and more un employed, will happen. obummer was masterfull at delaying things like the tax hike that will come into being and the end of many revenue streams that happen, yes you guessed it, after the electin.
I'm blown away that what happened this September 11th is considered a big deal. President Obama was running on the idea that while economically he needs more time, his foreign policy has been a smashing success. The attacks in Egypt and Libya have put a lie to that meme. He has failed on virtually every front. Could you imagine if it were President McCain had this kind of record with what happened on September 11th? He'd be down 15 percentage points to Elmer Fudd, much less a decent Democratic candidate. Yet President Obama calls it a "bump in the road" and it's ignored by the news media. And people called Reagan "The Teflon President".
