Obama 303 - 234. Because 538 says so, and Silver was off by only 12 last time (he underestimated Obama).
Maybe a more interesting question is whether we'll know who won the day after the election. I think... not.
Romney 270-284 I really think we see some suprises this time. I think that a lot of the votes that the left is counting as a forgone conclusion,dont happen as planned.
Well Romney winning with only 207 electoral votes would be a surprise. 270 is I'm sure what you meant. Just wondering which votes that are being counted as forgone conclusions are you talking about?
well, as the polls are based on the turn out of the last election, I believe that the numbrs for barry are inflated. the last election had a higher than normal turnout for barry and I dont see it being as high this time. Also, the buzz is that there are more Rs expected to make a point of balloting this time.
Nate Silver is saying that Obama has an 80% chance of winning: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...ple-case-for-saying-obama-is-the-favorite/?hp
well, the main stream media is going to claim it is so, as they have been and are the biggest cheer leaders, they feel that because people like to vote for the winner, if they keep saying it, they will push those undecided to vote for barry. Could back fire, if all the barry supporters believe they have this in the bag, could be that many will not bother to vote..
If I said it was a 51% chance and was right, can I get paid lots of money by the NYT to spin the polls too?
Sure! But you should throw in just enough statistics terminology to make yourself sound knowledgeable and evenhanded. The part about overfit models was exciting to me (I wish I were kidding about that.) Off topic, but google seems to think I'm voting for Romney and I'm getting a lot of banner ads to contribute to Romney. I blame Denny and Romney supporters for this. Should I click through and not donate so that I can transfer some wealth from Romney to Denny? Something good should come of this lol.
from reading his articles nate silver seems reasonably objective (unlike MSNBC and FNC pundits). also most other poll tracking sites (not associated with the NYT) including realclearpolitics tell the same story.
