Romney is buying the ads through Adsense. Maybe it sees "Romney is a liar" so much, the software selects additional ads. Please don't game the ad system. Click if you're seriously interested.
Living in Denver (which is much like Multnomah County), it would shock me if Romney didn't win Colorado. I remember what it was like here in 2008 and all the energy is on the other side today. The GOP is mobilized in Wisconsin due to the Supreme Court and Walker recalls. Iowa is trending Republican. Ohio has been stickier because Romney was so demonized in ads and they have more jobs (especially around Toledo) tied to the auto industry. I don't know how Romney let Obama define his position on the auto bailout the way he did, but it's hurt him there.
Funny thing about Ohio and other places seeing a less worse economy. Republican governors. Kasich is downright awesome. The turnaround in Indiana is one of the best stories if the past 4 years (Mitch Daniels).
I don't understand the argument that President Obama has an advantage in some of these swing states because the unemployment rate is lower than the national average. Well, the national average stinks on ice, so who cares if you're just a bit better? I'd rather be in one of those "depressed" states under Bush where the unemployment rate what a shockingly high 5% than one of these "booming" states under Obama where the U3 is 7%.
Fantastic. When I modeled and simulated the NBA for a graduate level class I took, I ran millions of simulated full NBA seasons and compared the model's predicted (average of 1M runs) against the players' actual stats and the teams' actual victory totals. It took me 3 semesters to get it reasonably close. The ultimate goal was to be able to model "what if" scenarios. Like what if the Blazers drafted Jordan, or Durant. I'd also point out that even with 1M runs doing a pretty close to reality result, any one run could deviate quite a bit. Like a different scoring leader or different champion.
It's a tough thing for people to accept, but certainty in something as infrequent as an election is a fool's errand.
This has never looked like a tight race, despite media proclamations to the contrary. It's always been a walkaway slam dunk for Obama.
All over but the shouting. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
http://www.salon.com/2012/11/06/mon...ilver_pushes_obamas_chances_above_90_percent/ UPDATED: A 10:05 p.m. Silver update has pushed Obama’s chances of re-election to 92.2 percent, with 315.3 electoral votes. Nate Silver has gone all-in with President Obama. In a Monday evening update to his fivethirtyeight blog on the New York Times, the polling guru and human Xanax for Obama voters increased the likelihood of the president’s re-election to 91.4 percent. That’s the high-water mark for Obama in Silver’s rigorous model, which weighs a wide variety of state and national polls and weighs them based on statistical validity and historical accuracy, among other factors. It’s also a big jump from earlier today. In Silver’s early Monday morning update, Obama had an 86 percent chance of defeating Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Obama’s previous high was 87 percent, just prior to his sleepy performance in the first presidential debate last month. Here’s what the results mean: Silver’s predicting that if the election — based on the current polls — were run 100 times, Obama would win just over 91 times. Romney would likely win just in just over 8 of those elections. Silver’s widely respected because he correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008, along with all of the year’s Senate elections, and came within percentage points of predicting the popular vote. Other results from Silver’s Monday evening update: * He predicts Obama will win 314.4 electoral votes, to 223.6 for Mitt Romney. * Silver also has Obama winning the popular vote, with 50.9 percent to Romney’s 48.2. * Among swing states, Silver has turned Florida blue. He has Obama as a 52.5 percent favorite there. Obama is also favored to take Virginia (80.3 percent), Colorado (80.3 percent), Ohio (91.2 percent), New Hampshire (84.9 percent) and Iowa (85 percent). * Silver installed Romney as a 72.4 percent favorite in North Carolina.
nate silver's model is up to 92.2% to 7.8% obama. and yet FNC still parading pundits claiming Romney will win easily.
Silver's final prediction was 313 for Obama. I didn't update my guess to reflect that out of pure ignorance. So I find myself in the odd position of hoping Obama loses Florida so I hit it square on the head. Either way Silver was wrong. It'll either be 303 or 332 depending on Florida. Looking more like 332.
Marist and Nate Silver are both geniuses. I criticized them roundly before the election, but facts are facts. I didn't buy that the makeup of the electorate would look like it did, and I was wrong. Horribly, horribly wrong. I am out of touch with the rest of America. Having lived in Europe, I now understand what our country is. It's a different place today.
The issue is that so far any Republican candidate has to adhere to requirements of the far right's conservative social views which alienates a massive amount of the population that is only going to get bigger. I would absolutely vote for candidate who is a true fiscal moderate-right leaning and moderate on social views. Romney was not that guy.
He was when he was governor of Massachusetts. I suspect Romney would have governed that way as President. He hasn't really allowed his personal beliefs (which I think are quite socially conservative) to impact his policies. I think he was interested in righting the fiscal ship and didn't really care about social issues.
