This is a little different from some of the other threads, so bear with me. In the opinion of most basketball "experts" as well as me and a few others on this board, Portland isn't really a serious contender this year, and in order to be one, they need a few things 1. Interior defense 2. A real 6th man 3. More depth on bench as a whole 4. Experience Now experience will take care of itself, but how would you take care of the other things? Portland can have around 15 million in cap space this summer by renouncing Hickson, or realistically around 6 million if they re-sign him. Unless we get bombed with injuries, we will either not have a pick, or it will be 12th (for this let's say we keep our pick and it is 12th) How would you make this Blazers team into a contender? Try to explain why you think your moves makes us a contender
Going by your scenario where we have the 12th pick, I'd say BPA in the draft. Period. I'm not so sure that you need more or better players to improve the D. I think more focus on that part of the game and more work at it can do wonders. MIA didn't score a bajillion points in the paint last night b/c we didn't have talented big men--they scored b/c LMA wasn't rotating for shit and Hickson's worried about angling for rebounds to step up on someone. Lest you forget, LMA was DPoY in college. He has the skills and athleticism already. But if you did go after personnel, I think that defense is still an undervalued skill, esp. in big men. You could probably get a young guy relatively cheaply, or pick up someone's project. And I think as Freeland spazzes out less with more time he'll be decent. Real 6th Man: JJ Redick. Intriguing Dark horse: Brandon Jennings, RFA. Bench depth: See what you can do to find out if Claver or Freeland are NBA-caliber 8th and 9th men you can count on for minutes. Bring over Papanikolou. Look at some of the euro castoffs (Bo McCalebb, Jeremy Pargo, etc) I didn't answer the contender spot. Honestly, I think that we're going as far as Batum and Lillard can take us.
5. Upgrade Center and or SG. I love Mathews and Hickson but if we could bring one or both off the bench we would be cooking. Both those guys are energy guys and Mathews is a streaky shooter and good defender who we could bring in for heat checks. With the right guy this would take care of 1-4 on your list. Also experience isnt as big of a concern for me, we are have some solid vets already and Lillard is maturing fast.
I don't think there's a path to becoming a contender in single off-season for this team, but knowing where they are deficient -- post defense and somebody who can slash to the rim -- I'd probably renounce Hickson's rights if it looks like his asking price will be North of 9 million a year. I'd take that fifteen million in cap room and try like mad to make some kind of unbalanced trade for a team looking to shed payroll and get a passable big man; even an offensively limited rebounding/defensive specialist; if a sign and trade can be worked out with Hickson so much the better. If you need names for possible targets, that's hard to say, but it might be somebody like Emeka Okafor on the low end, or you can dream big and think about Nikola Pekovic. When it comes to the draft if we end up getting to keep our first round pick, this year looks like one of those deep drafts with not a lot of star power, so it sucks if you're picking in the top 5, but at 11 or 12 maybe you can pick up a viable starting quality guy. Position is immaterial, if it turns out that there's a qualified 1 or 2 worthy of the 11th or 12th pick then awesome, given the dearth of talent on this team outside of Lillard, Batum, Matthews and Aldridge anybody at any position will do. Aside from that, I'd work like hell to get that Greek kid (Papaniklau? [sic]) over here and see if he can play at all and I'd hope that there is at least a marginally competent backup point guard somewhere that this team can get in free agency. As for ascending to the level of a true contender, much of that rests on just how good Lillard can be and how much room he has left to grow. To a lesser extent if Nic can string together more of the games like last night's performance that would help a lot too. Whatever happens, it's going to be tough as hell for this team to become a true title contender unless they've got a top 5 player on their roster; that's just the reality of the NBA.
Im more of a big picture kind of guy. I just looked at the free agent list though and a few names I like at center are Bynum, Jefferson, Kaman, and Dalembert. At SG, Ginobili, Martin, Ellis, Iggy, and Mayo. No one that really jumps out as a must have though, and some of them are restricted or otherwise hard to aquire. DHO also obviously but not sure he would be worth the trouble even if he did want to come here
I like getting specific with some names so here's a scenario. Hate to say it but let Hickson walk, I don't think his production or what he gives up is the biggest problem with retaining him, it's that as a 24yr old double double guys his price is just going to be to high and not using the space we have efficiently will hurt us going forward. I want to see what Leonard can do at that starting 5 spot next year whether Hickson is back or not, because his size/athleticism/shooting ability give me a lot of hope going forward. Put together a trade either during the year or early in the offseason for Jared Dudley from PHX, solid bench guy with great percentages. Freeland and or Claver, or in this scenario where we get the 12th pick in the draft I'd be comfortable swapping that for Dudley. Use the 11/12 mil we have left and try and sign both Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry away from GSW for deals in the 3yr/18mil range, I look at those two guys as being a huge part of that teams success and adding both along with Dudley would be a huge boost. Then target Jermaine O'Neal for the veteran minimum for a serviceable spot minute big in case of foul trouble or injury. All together: Lillard/Jack/Price Wes/Barton Batum/Dudley Aldridge/Landry/Jeffries Leonard/O'Neal I think that gives us great size and athleticism in the starting 5, and a bunch of really solid veterans off the bench. EDIT: And that combined with an even better Lillard and Batum I think gets us in the hunt, probably not mentioned with the Heat/Thunder etc but good enough for HCA in the 1st round.
To me, the path to true contender status is dependent upon a few things 1. Continued development from ALL of our young guys (chiefly Lillard, obviously, but Leonard, Babbit, Freeland, Claver, and Barton developing into solid contributors will all help) 2. Sustained health. This year is what it is, a pleasantly talented starting 5 with almost nothing behind them. Obviously if any of our big 5 go down for a significant amount of time it'll be a serious blow to this season, but my greater fear is what the miles put on this year will do to each of our big 5 down the line... 3. Brutal honesty and an aggressive, eyes-wide-open approach to roster management at the trade deadline and next offseason by Olshay. To me this all starts and revolves around what to do with Hickson. Moving from good and developing to true contender, gearing up to try to beat the Clipps/Thunder/Heat of the world in a 7 game series is going to mandate a true, reliable center. For everything that JJ is, I'm not convinced that he's that. The decision of what to do with Hickson, to me is a gamble: Obviously if you decide to resign him, you lose most of your cap room and are - for better or worse - settling on him as your big "addition" from this offseason. If you're going to renounce him this offseason, you HAVE to try and trade him at the deadline and try to get a draft pick and expiring contract or affordable longterm piece. With his bird restrictions it'll be harder to trade JJ, but if you tell him that he's hitting free agency, so it's essentially an extended FA tryout, you might get him to waive his clause to the right team. Getting what you can for Hickson this offseason also has the added benefit of allowing Leonard more playing time to hopefully develop a bit quicker and potentially preserving that draft pick. The gamble here is you're putting your eggs in the "somehow acquiring a true C" basket with that cap room. Certainly doable, via unbalanced trade or the few potential free agents out there, but if you crap out there, you risk losing him for your plan B (starish SG?) or C (adding several depth players?)... EDIT: I'll add as a caveat, just something to think about... Is anyone else at least a little concerned with what Hickson was when his financial future was secure? He had one or two good years with Lebron, after that, really regressed. Some, or possibly all, could be attributed to him being on 2 different organizations going through some serious turmoil, but on the precipice of signing him to a big deal, the consideration that at least SOME of that had to be internal, makes me a little antsy... Leonard's not ready to be a rotation player, let alone a starting C on a contender. Do you play it safe with JJ (and add a depth player) or go for broke with a big FA splash, hoping you're able to add a draft pick or two along the way? (OR, 3rd, most controversial option, try and reform Demarcus Cousins?) Touch choice, but I think if you're going for a championship, you gotta swing for the fences.
Good posts from everyone. Really good points by all. Interior D and scoring off the bench seems to be the common thread. For me it is too early to decide. If we do not trade JJ by the deadline we will have another 3 months to evaluate him. We should know for sure how much he is worth. If we keep him then I say we go for a Jack type FA, and hope Leonard gets stronger and gives us that interior D. I think Leonard will be as good as any cheap free agent center we can get. Top FA centers are difficult to obtain but I like the unbalance trade scenario. Pekovic is not going to happen. Minnesota will not let him go. But you would think something has to give in Washington. Either Okafur or Nene seem destined to be traded. If we do renounce JJ's rights then Redick would be a good choice, but would not come cheap. Many teams will offer 7 million, and a couple 8 million. We would nee to offer him 9 million to lure him all the way to Portland. But he would give the Blazers a nice 6th man off the bench. Kind of like when we got Ainge back in the day. As for the draft, as mentioned the 11-12 pick is the likeliest scenario unless we get hammered by injuries. I agree BPA is the best option. We need depth everywhere. Luck will be a big part of that pick in terms of hitting a HR. So in conclusion sign JJ, JJ, or JJ and release JJ. (Hickson, Jack, or Redick and Jefferies)
For me, the only way you renounce Hickson is if you're going all in for another C, either by trade (I like your Nene suggestion) or FA (DHo and then on down the list...)
I think this offseason goes like San Antonio's when they signed Rasho and Horry. I do not think we get someone worthy of a max contract. I think we build around the guys we have, upgrading our depth. Do not have specific names but think we draft as well as use our cap space on BPA. Would love to see an upgrade at C and Leonard limited until he matures.
I wouldn't want nene because he has injury problems. The same applies for okafor. They would be the perfect addition though, if they had manageable health issues. I would try very hard for hard hat defenders. I think they are the pieces we are lacking. If we could somehow get a pryzbilla type player (rebounds, blocks shots and sets nice picks), I think that would be a good start. I'm hoping for a player like this in the d-league that other teams overlooked, but that's probably a pipe dream. I think obtaining a player like that would have to be on a trade. I just don't think we have the window to wait for a young buck to develop for aldridges prime years. If the possibility could be, we could trade hickson this summer and add another piece like Babbitt; then we have a real shot at trading for a legit answer at center. Then we could use our max mle to grab a player like reddick. Or use part of the mle to get a lower grade backup for both pg and sg.
we can't start under the cap and still get the max MLE. We'd get the Room Exception (2 years at about 2.6M per year)
Unless you get over cap with the scenario of using hickson resigned for 9 mil for a 12 mil player. Then sign Babbitt for a 2-3 mil contract. Then we would be about 1-2 mil over cap.
You don't think Meyers Leonard could be that kind of player? He might improve quickly, seems like a bright guy and has the physical tools. It wouldn't surprise me if he got a lot better by the end of the season and became a major part of the rotation next season.
I hope so, but he looks like he still has a long way to go. We just don't have the time for him to take the 2-3 years to develop, if we want to take advantage of aldridge's prime years. We could use him in a trade as well.
I wonder if the Blazers will look at this as well? Other NBA teams might covet a big white American center that will take many years to be productive to a contender?
Depends on the team. If the team really has no shot at being a winner anytime soon, they should consider. I have confidence that leanord could develop into a decent center, but like I said, he needs about 2-3 more years before he's relevant. On a very young team, that's not a bad scenario. They may get a couple high daft picks in process too.
Love this. But can't we sign Jack/Landry first and then sign Hickson using Bird rights? I definitely agree Leonard should start next year too.
