Speaking of no talent U.S. born white centers

No idea, I'd have to check. I will go back 20 years or so? Take the top 14 players since the lottery has changed

 

No one stat is the end all be all but this is good news as it shows Leonard could be more. Doubt anyone could say they wouldn't take Byron's numbers from this year for Leonard next year though.

 

It depends on the situation though. I mean on our team, we have a lot of scorers in the starting line-up. If we still have Batum, Aldridge, Lillard and Matthews; I just don't see how Leonard can average enything more than 10 per game.

 

Leonard seems like much more of a natural scorer than Przybilla ever was. He's taking shots right now that Joel never took at the peak of his career--midrange jumpers out to about 16 feet--and yet he's got a better FG% than Joel finished with.

He's being pigeonholed as a Przybilla-type because he's white and big, but if he has a healthy career where he averages 30+ppg I think he'll probably be worth 13-15ppg when he's in his prime. Our team as it is right now doesn't really trust him to score (and he doesn't seem to trust himself) and yet he's already scoring 10.6 ppg per 36 minutes. When Leonard takes shots, they always look like they are going in. It's the one thing (besides dunking) he does with pretty high competence.

I'm more skeptical that he'll ever be a great rebounder and defender like Joel. I think at some point a coach is going to realize he can score (when LMA gets injured/traded) and he could go the way of a poor man's Amare. He might figure out a big man can forget about learning to defend and make some decent coin by just putting up points for a few years. Jamal Magloire made as much money in his career as Joel Przybilla and didn't work nearly as hard for it.

 

I won't claim to have come up with this analogy, but I think it's apt. Leonard is a lot like a Great Dane puppy when he's out on the court. His awareness is jaw-dropping in how horrendous it really is. He's completely lost on both ends of the court, having no clue what to do with the basketball in the paint and how he's supposed to play big men on defense.

That said ... he does a few things when he's out there that gives me a glimmer of hope that someday he could be a regular contributor. 1. He's game; he doesn't appear to get too down when he screws up and he doesn't seem intimidated. 2. He's very mobile for his size; I think he does a nice job jumping out to the three point line to hedge on pick and rolls and when he recognizes what he's supposed to do, he's able to cover a lot of ground and get back to his man near the hoop. 3. He's got a pretty good jump shot; his form is good, he's fluid ... he's usually super tentative and unsure of taking a jumper, but mechanically there's something to work with.

What does all of that mean? I don't know exactly. It's all going to come down to how hard he works in the off-season with a big man coach, or how much time he devotes to his craft ... an holy balls, he needs a lot of work, but at least there's some mold-able clay there to work with -- the atheticism, the size, the jumper.

 

Yeah, but the NBA has expanded. If you're taking the top-14 for all-time, you're taking a high percentage of players than you should.

 

I agree Leonard seems to have natural offensive talent, he's agile and he can really jump. I have my fingers crossed he can learn to defend and rebound. He tries hard and has a good attitude, two things Jermaine O'Neal lacked when he was here. And he turned out pretty good.

 

Agreed with most of this. He has more than a jumper though. In general, he has a pretty nice touch around the rim. He had a nice little jump-hook, or something like that, against the Wizz. I've seen him pull enough moves around the rim to know he just has a solid shooting touch in general.

 

He has no idea -- ZERO -- with how to gain post position and has a ton of difficulty figuring out that it's OK to go up and finish off of an offensive rebound instead of immediately looking to pass out to a wing. If it's not a lob-dunk, then you can probably forget about it for right now.

 

Very true

Not really true. I think twice last night he nabbed offensive boards and put them back. There was definitely that one where he was standing behind the backboard (ugh) and still somehow used his athleticism to rebound and flip up a nifty little shot.

And you can definitely throw it to him and count on him hitting a 14 footer if he's open. He's more than proven that.

 

With more experience and playing time I have no doubt that he could be close to a double-double average. On a good night the kid basically falls into 5 rebounds with his athleticism and 6 points from alley oops and a mid range jumper. So its not hard to envision that with more time and experience that those numbers could double.

 

I didn't say he knows how to gain position. I said he has a nice touch. Big difference. I've seen him shoot the ball over the defender (with his defender guarding him tight) several times this year from 4-7 feet from the hoop, or a little jump hook, and he's made them far more often than he's missed.

 

I think he can be an All Star center but it will take time. Look at how long it took Chandler and Bynum to breakout. It takes time for a player like Leonard. I hope we hang onto him. It will be fun to watch him grow.

 

1994

montross, yinka dare

1995

bryant reeves, cherokee parks

1996

camby, lorenzen wright, eric dampier, todd fuller, vitaly potopenko

1997

adonal foyle

1998

candyman, doleac

1999

Aleksandar Radojević

2000

joel

2001

kwame, chandler, eddy curry, diop

2002

yao

2003

darko, kaman

2004

dho, araujo, robert swift

2005

bogut
bynum

2006

POB, sene, hilton armstrong

without looking up all of these scrubs stats, id say 10/9 puts him ahead of most of these lotto pick centers

 

Centers Try to stay true centers and not guys like Dale Davis and Adam Keefe. Also in prime years

91
Motumbo Did
Longley Did not

92
Shaq Did
Mourning Did

93
Bradley Did not
Haskin Did not

94
Montross Did not
Dare Did not

95
Reeves Did not

96
Dampier Did not
Potepinko Did not

97
Foyle Did not

98
Olawakandi did not
Doleac Did not

99
Redojevic Did not

00
Mihm Did not
Przybilla Did not

01
Curry Did not
Chandler Did ish
Diop Did not

02
Yao Did
Nene Did Not

03
Kaman Did not

04
Howard Did
Okafor Did
Araujo Did not
Biendrins Did (3 real prime years)
Swift Did not

05
Bogut Did
Frye Did not
Bynum Did

06
O'Bryant Did not
Sene Did not
Armstrong Did not

07
Oden Did not
Hawes Did not

08
Lopez Did not

09
Thabeet Did not

After that guys are too young to really know I think. So looking at it, what really stands out is that most lottery centers are either huge deals or complete busts, with a few decent to below average guys mixed in

 

Are we going in their prime or at their second year or what?

I would put him behind (because it will be a smaller list):
Camby, Dampier (had a 12/12 year and a 12/9 year - close though) Chandler, Kaman (another close one and depends on if we are going career or not), Howard, Bogut, and Bynum.

Yep. So if not top 10% then top 15ish% although you left off from 2007 on. Some decent names are: Horford, Noah, Hawes, Lopez, Cousins, and Monroe.

 

I still don't think he will ever be one of the top rebounders in the game. He does not seem to have a nose for the ball so to speak.

 

so, looking at that list, 10/9 would clearly be solid for a lottery pick

glad we could clear that up

 

I think you are lowering your expectations because of other shitty players though, don't you? Solid for a lottery pick is correct, but that's sad. Most guys around there are pretty average NBA players. The other guys are superstars and in a different world all together

 

First, perfect is the enemy of good. Let's consider that before whining about centers.

Secondly look at this: http://bkref.com/tiny/RaMC3 Only 36 centers ever have spent a significant amount of their career (5 seasons or more) with even a 9/7 average. If you want to talk about lowered expectations, we should talk about lowering them to match reality rather than to anything else.

Another way to look at it: in two games as a starter, Leonard averaged 12 points and 4 rebounds. Not worldbeating, right? But Here's the list of active centers who have ever averaged 12/4 in their career: http://bkref.com/tiny/MY1Aa Note that only 6 active centers are averaging 12/4 this season (sort by To descending).